skeeve picks (and wins!)

25.02.2008., ponedjeljak

23.2.2008. -18 units

CONF SOUTH

Basingstoke – Bromley OVER 3.5 (2.62 @Blue Square) 6 units

I'll try to keep it short – you all know about Basingstoke's bad form lately. They're 10th, they lost their chance for a play-off spot and their goal-difference in the last 8 matches is 13:27 – seven out of these eight matches produced at least four goals and the only 'UNDER 3.5' was a 2:1 away win at terrible home team Maidenhead more than a month ago. After that, they lost 0:6 away at Eastbourne and 1:5 at home to Fisher, then shared points (2:2) away at Hampton and, finally, last Saturday, lost 2:3 at home to Havant. Their last four home matches all produced not four, but between five and seven goals. Only two teams in Conference South conceded more than Basingstoke this season – 20th St Albans conceded 61, 22nd Sutton conceded 60 and 10th Basingstoke conceded as much as 55 in 31 matches . This time they will be without strikers Charles and Taylor (Taylor scored one and Charles didn't score at all in the last five matches so that's not that big of a problem – they still have Fitzgerald, Warner, Wells and Surey who can all score a goal or two and another positive fact is that Basingstoke usually attack and want to score even when they're 0:6 down), but also without standard and most probably their best defender Dolan – all three are suspended. They have a lot of injury doubts too and every time when they play without a couple of standard players, the match produces a lot of goals. I think we will see a lot of goals in this match too – after all, even their manager just admitted they lost their play-off chances and some fans think he could give a chance to some reserve players in the near future. That should mean more goals too.

Bromley are currently 9th and their play-off chances are also very slim. They also score and concede a lot of goals – only league leaders scored more than Bromley (Eastbourne scored 62 and Bromley scored 61 in 31 match). They conceded 54 – only one less than Basingstoke. Only Sutton and St Albans conceded more goals away from home (Sutton and St Albans conceded 32 and Bromley conceded 30 in 16 away matches), only three best away teams in the league scored more than them away from home (Lewes scored 33, Eastbourne and Eastleigh both 30 and Bromley scored 28 in the 16 away matches) and if we look at their four league matches played in the last 30 days, these are the results: 2:3 defeat at Hampton, 1:0 home win over poor, defensively oriented Sutton, 1:6 defeat at mid-table Hayes and, finally, 3:1 home win over Weston. And there were some cup matches full of goals too – one OVER 4.5 and one OVER 5.5. Williams, Hockton and McDonnell are all in great form, all of them scored a bunch of goals lately and all three of them scored in the 3:1 home win over Weston last Saturday. McDonnell will probably be out injured, but they have plenty of other guys who can score so that's fine with me. Bromley's goalkeeper Walker also picked up a knock in their last match and is also a doubt. Bromley are one of few teams at this level who has a 'TV' section on their website – you can see all of the match highlights. We should definately see a lot of goals here – Bromley play open, attacking football with lots and lots of chances, but they also concede very silly goals very often. Sutton had a lot of luck and a lot of players behind the ball – if we exclude that home win, we have five Bromley's matches (in all competitions) that produced between four and seven goals in the last 30 days. It was 3:2 for Bromley at their place in September. 2.62 is way too big and 2.89 at my local bookie is almost too good to be true.

(2.89 at Stanleybet, 1.93 at Pinnacle for OVER 3...)

FT 1:1

CONF SOUTH

Hampton – Fisher OVER 3.5 (2.75 @Blue Square) 4 units

Another Conf South match that should produce a lot of goals – we have two play-off candidates but also two teams that score and concede a lot of goals. Hampton are currently 3rd, only league leaders Eastbourne (62) and Bromley (61) scored more than them (Hampton scored 60 goals in 29 matches), they scored the most goals in the league at home (34 in 14 home matches), but they also concede a lot – Hampton conceded almost twice more goals than 1st Eastbourne and 2nd Lewes (both of those teams conceded 22 and 3rd Hampton conceded 40). Their last two matches produced 'only' 3 goals (0:3 defeat at defensively oriented Braintree, 2:1 win away at poorest home team in the league Maidenhead – matches never go OVER 3.5 there), but before that they had 7 matches that produced between 4 or 5 goals in the last 9. It was 2:2 at home vs bottom of the table Sutton, 4:1 home win over Hayes, 1:2 defeat at defensively oriented Sutton, 4:0 home win over Welling, 2:3 home defeat to Thurrock, 2:1 away win at Lewes who were league leaders at the time, 3:2 home win over Bromley, 2:2 away at Newport, 2:2 at home vs Basingstoke, 0:3 away at Braintree and 2:1 away win at Maidenhead. This time they'll be without their defender Lake due to suspension.

Fisher are currently 7th, but 5th Bath, 6th Eastleigh and Fisher all have 49 points so play-off really isn't mission impossible for them. They had an incredible run of wins, then picked up only one point out of six but then they won again – it was 4:2 against Hayes at Fisher's place last Saturday. Fisher scored 47 goals in 30 matches and they conceded as much as 45 – no other play-off candidate condeded more. Before that 4:2 win over Hayes last weekend, they lost 1:4 at home to Eastleigh, but also won 5:1 away at Basingstoke. UNDER's at Weston and Bath were expected, just like this time I expect an OVER 3.5. They will be without striker McCollin, but Goulding, Thomas and Tomlin are all in great form. I'm sure they'll score in this match – the only question is how many goals. 'I always tell my team to play attacking football and pass the ball. We like to win pretty. If we're playing away we'll go there and attack like we have done all season', Fisher's manager said a couple of days ago. Always nice to hear. Way too big odds once again.

(2.89 at Stanleybet, 1.93 at Pinnacle for OVER 3...)

FT 0:2

RYMAN PREMIER

Heybridge – Wimbledon 2 (1.80 @Sportingbet) 5 units

Wimbledon are really flying high at the moment – they have four handicap wins in a row (2:0 away at 11th Harrow, 2:0 away at 4th Horsham, 5:0 at home over 22nd Leyton and, finally, 6:1 at home over 19th Heybridge this Tuesday), their place in the play-off is now practically guaranteed (they're 2nd, with 8 points more than other three teams that are currently in the play-off zone), but they also believe they could earn direct promotion – Chelmsford have as much as 9 points more (Wimbledon had some major problems with injuries earlier in the season), but they're not playing as good as before and Wimbledon look like they really could win all the matches untill the end of the season. Chelmsford and Wimbledon are also the two best away teams in the league – Wimbledon have 7-5-3 (29:19), but those away defeats happened a long time ago. They will be without midfielder Hatton who is suspended, but they have a big squad, they brought in a couple of new players lately and they should win comfortably.

Heybridge are currently 18th, just outside the relegation zone, but I think they'll have to look for points in other matches, not this one. They just lost left back Barber who went to league rivals, Boreham Wood (fans are devastated – he was apparently one of the most important players), winger Harkin returned to Charlton, they picked up just one point in the last three matches (2:3 defeat away at 7th Billericay, 0:6 home defeat to 9th Ashford and, finally, 2:2 away draw at 15th Folkestone last Saturday – Heybridge played terrible in the 1st half, their keeper saved a penalty, they were 0:2 down, but managed to grab a point in the 2nd half – didn't manage to score a winner against 10 players for the last couple of minutes, so I'm really not scared of them). Yes, that's 11 goals conceded in the last three matches – Wimbledon scored 13 in the last three. At home, Heybridge have 7-5-3 and that's not bad, but this is mighty Wimbledon they're up against now. It was 1:0 at Wimbledon for the hosts, but this time I expect a more comfortable win. Heybridge brought in a new striker recently, but that's only Savage from a league below who didn't make it at some other Ryman Premier teams earlier this season.

(1.75 at Stanleybet, 1.73 at Gamebookers, Paddy Power, PartyBets, 1.70 or worse elsewehere, 1.89 currently at Pinnacle for (-0.75)...)

FT 2:1

TROPHY/RYMAN DOUBLE: Tamworth – Aldershot 2 @1.67 & Ramsgate – Wealdstone 1 @1.62 (2.7054 @Bet365) 3 units

Respect to Tamworth – I'm sure their fans are proud, they're in the FA Trophy quarter-finals, they managed to beat Stafford in the 3rd round (2:2 away, 2:1 at home), but I'm afraid their FA Trophy journey is over now. Stafford are deep down in the relegation zone of Conference National (22nd, 16 points in 29 matches, it's obvious now that Stafford are going to get relegated) and Aldershot are something else – they're the current league leaders, they're the best away team in Conf National and they will probably be in the League 2 next season. Tamworth are currently 15th in Conf North, at home they have 7-3-5, they have two handicap wins in a row, but they only managed to beat two struggling teams, 21st Vauxhall and 19th Hucknall. Before that two wins, they lost 0:5 away at 16th Workington. Forwards Marrison and Foster are both cup-tied and Tamworth will also be without suspended defender Evans. I know Aldershot want to play in the League 2 next season, but FA Trophy final at Wembley also sounds nice, doesn't it? Aldershot's manager will field a full-strength side and you should know that Aldershot has 5 wins (4 handicap wins) and a draw (at home with 3rd Cambridge) in the last 6 matches. Their last league match was a 3:1 home win over Stevenage who are 4th in Conf National, but apparently it could've easily been 6 or 7:1. Away from home, Aldershot have two handicap wins in a row. Anything but a strong away win would be a major surprise.

Ramsgate didn't have an ideal month – after they won away at 12th Maidstone, they only managed to share points at home with 13th Harlow (0:0) and away at 21st East Thurrock (1:1) last Saturday. But, they still have a chance for a play-off spot (they're currently 8th, but they only have three points less than 3rd Staines) and they're traditionally great at home (this season it's 9-4-2, 30:14). They will be without defender Hill, but this should be a strong home win nevertheless. Why? Because Wealdstone are in a lot of problems – not just they're 19th, down in the relegation zone, but they will be without a couple of very important players – their best player and midfielder O'Leary requested a transfer and went to Hendon, right-back Rice returned to Wycombe (he was at Wealdstone on loan) and midfielder Ashe and defender Martin both missed the match at Wimbledon due to their injuries and could miss out again. And their keeper was truly awful at Wimbledon – I mean really really awful (they lost 1:6). Wealdstone aren't terrible away from home (6-1-8, 22:28), but with all those important players out, I doubt they can do something here. They have three defeats in a row and if we look at their last 5 away matches, we can see four defeats (at 16th Carshalton, 18th Heybridge, 7th Billericay and 2nd Wimbledon) and a win at poor 20th Hastings.

(2.64 at Bwin, Tipico and Bet-at-home, 2.62 at Coral, Paddy Power and Skybet, 2.54 at StanJames, 2.52 at Gamebookers...)

FT 1:2 / 2:2

- 12:00 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

19.02.2008., utorak

19.2.2008. +6.21 units

CONF NORTH

Vauxhall – Hyde 2 (2.10 @Blue Square) 3 units

I considered betting on OVER 3.5 in this match, but then I found out that Vauxhall's best scorer Taylor is suspended for this match (he scored the second goal for Vauxhall this Saturday) and I also remembered that shocking Vauxhall's 1:0 win over Hyde in the FA Trophy in November. Even if Vauxhall manage to score in this match, I'm not quite sure that they can score more than one here and Hyde could also score just one or two. Of course, if Hyde manage to take an early lead we could see 4 or more goals here, but 2.50 at Blue Square is not really a value bet. Odds should be better, no doubt about it. Vauxhall are currently 21st, second to bottom, deep down in the relegation zone. They're one of the worst home teams in the league (4-4-5, 21:27) and they have only one win in the last 9 matches (in all competitions). They did manage to win away at 20th Hinckley in January and share points with 18th Solihull Moors (1:1 away) and 17th Blyth (2:2 at home this Saturday), but these are all relagation candidates – they lost to 11th Barrow, 13th Redditch, Conference National outfit Burton in the FA Trophy, 12th Gainsborough, 22nd bottom of the table Leigh RMI, another Conf National outfit Altrincham in the Unibond Senior Cup and 15th Tamworth. Hyde aren't in the greatest form, but it will be Vauxhall's toughest league match in months nevertheless. Now when Taylor is out suspended, I think odds should be 1.80 max for Hyde to win.

Hyde are currently 7th (three points less and one match less played than 5th Nuneaton), they were doing great for the most parts of the season, but they had some bad results lately – it all started with the Boxing Day home defeat to 6th Stalybridge, followed with a home draw with 3rd Harrogate and another defeat to Stalybridge, this time away from home (on New Year's Day). Those were both tough opponents though, but after that Hyde also lost at home to 17th Blyth and 14th Alfreton and also away at 15th Tamworth and 2nd Telford. Their home draw with bottom of the table Leigh RMI was also a dissappointment and their only league win in this period was a 2:1 home win over 10th Boston. They also managed to get all the way to the Manchester Cup final (they managed to beat Ashton a week ago), but now it's time for them to focus on the league – if they win, they could be in the play-off zone again and that's a good enough motivation if you ask me. Vauxhall will also be motivated, but Taylor is out for Vauxhall, Hyde weren't playing bad at title candidates Telford (lost 2:1, but were a better team in the 2nd half) and these odds, especially 2.20 at my local bookie, are looking very good. Hyde also brought in a couple of new players (defenders Killock from Huddersfield and Teague from Macclesfield both joined them on loan in the last few days) and they have a couple of very good strikers. Hyde will start winning again, that's a fact, and I hope they can start by winning at poor Vauxhall. Hyde's manager knows he's probably gone if he doesn't win this one.

(2.20 at Stanleybet, 2.10 also at Coral, 2.00 at Sportingbet, Skybet, Paddy Power... A couple of asian handicaps available this time too, but (-0.5) means normal away win anyway – 1.98 at Pinnacle, 1.95 at 10Bet...)

FT 3:4

CONF SOUTH

St Albans – Bishop's Stortford 2 (1.97 @10Bet) 3 units

St Albans are currently 20th, down in the relegation zone, with four points less and one match played more than 19th Welling. Looking pretty bad and bad is also how they've been playing lately. Their goal-difference in the last four matches is 0:11 (three of those were home matches – results were 0:3 vs 16th Maidenhead, 0:4 vs Aldershot in the Setanta Shield, 0:0 vs 8th Newport who were without a couple of suspended and injured players, all home, and, finally, 0:4 away at 2nd Eastbourne this Saturday). Another couple of players left the club recently (Butler, Walshe, Faal-Thomas...) and their only new signings are 36 year old midfielder Hunt who joined them just before the match at Eastbourne but he won't play because he's short of match fitness, and defender Fisher who came from Northwood (two leagues below). There was a lot of comings and goings this season at St Albans – only two players started both the first St Albans' league match season and the last match so far, this Saturday at Eastbourne, goalkeeper Eyre and their best striker Clarke who scored, well, only six goals this season (one goal in the last 11 league matches). St Albans are also the worse home team in Conf South (1-4-9, terrible goal-difference 8:27) and these odds are much too big.

Bishop's Stortford are currently 7th, but they have only two points less and played a match less than 4th Bath City. In fact, if they win and 5th Eastleigh don't win at 2nd Eastbourne (and I don't think they can win there – maybe they grind out a draw though), they'll be 5th, in the play-off zone. So it's kinda similar to that Cof North match, Vauxhall – Hyde, but Bishop's Stortford are playing a lot better lately than already mentioned Conf North play-off wannabe's. Bishop's Stortford are good enough away from home (7-2-5, 22:16) – their away defeats and draws happened at a lot better teams than St Albans are this season (1:1 at 2nd Eastbourne, 1:3 at 9th Bromley, 1:1 at 3rd Hampton, 0:4 at 4th Bath, 1:2 at 13th Braintree, 0:1 at in-form 14th Thurrock and, finally, 0:1 at league leaders, 1st Lewes this Saturday – Bishops were unlucky not to get a point, Lewes' striker Booth, league's best scorer, managed to score a winner in the 86th minute) and they won at 18th Bognor, 15th Cambridge, 6th Fisher, 17th Weston, 10th Basingstoke, 22nd Sutton and 21st Dorchester (it was 4:0 for Bishops a week ago). Most of those away wins were comfortable handicap wins – nice to know. Their best scorer Pearson scored 10 goals in the last 10 league matches and I'd be surprised if he wouldn't score at least one or two in this match. It was 4:3 for St Albans at Bishop's Stortford in September, crazy score, but Bishop's Stortford were without a couple of standard players in that match, and a lot of guys who played for St Albans left the club in the meantime. Later in September, Bishops won 2:1 away at St Albans (Pearson scored both goals then and one in the home defeat too), in the FA Cup 2nd qualifying round – it could've been a lot more comfortable win, but I'd be more than satisfied with the same or similar result this time.

(Pinnacle offer 1.90 for a (-0.5), normal away win. 1.91 at Blue Square, Gamebookers, Paddy Power, Skybet, PartyBets, only 1.80 at Stanleybet... 1.98 at Betfair...)

FT 1:2

- 23:00 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

16.02.2008., subota

16.2.2008. -5.85 units

CONF SOUTH

Sutton – Eastleigh OVER 3.5 (2.38 @Blue Square) 5 units

Eastleigh are fighting for the top, Sutton are fighting to avoid the drop – they really have nothing to lose at the moment, they have to go for a win just like they did against Havant (this Tuesday, lost 1:3 – the result could've apparently been 4:7) when they played a lot better than against Thurrock (last Saturday, when they won 1:0 – we were there to bet on them though at those lovely 3.00 odds). I really believe they will score here – Eastleigh's defence rarely manage to keep a clean sheet (just once in the last 9 matches), they conceded 12 in the last 7 matches and Sutton scored a goal two times in a row – it's a start! Okay, if Havant managed to score three at Sutton on Tuesday night, Eastleigh should score even more on a Saturday afternoon, but Sutton could score more than against Havant (just one) too – I really think they'll start to score more goals regularly now when they brought in Ramsgate's top-scorer Ball. Their best scorer Dundas (9 goals so far) should now score more too – in fact, Ball scored already in his first match against Thurrock and Dundas his 1st goal in five matches against Havant. Sutton have 2-2-10, 11:28 at home, but that doesn't mean much at the moment. They'll be up for it and who knows, maybe we even see a 2:2 or a 3:3 draw.

On the other hand, Eastleigh lost their home match against Sutton at the beginning of the season and they're up for a sweet little revenge. I don't think 1:0 or 2:1 (that's what the result was in that first match – for Sutton) will be enough for them – never is really. We should see a lot of goals this time. Eastleigh are finally in the play-off zone (and they want to stay there), but they can't afford to relax – both 5th Bishop's Stortford and 6th Newport played less matches than 4th Eastleigh and have only one (Stortford) and two points less (Newport). They score and concede a lot – a lot more away than at home (8-2-4, 28:19 away). I already said that they conceded 12 in the last 7 matches, but they also scored 19 in the last 6. Sales, Forbes, Adenyi, Marshall all scored a couple of goals each lately and this time they're playing against the team that has nothing to lose. The weather should be fine and anything above 2.20 looks good to me – odds from my local bookie look a lot better than Blue Square odds this time...

(2.69 at Stanleybet for OVER 3.5, Pinnacle will probably have something like 1.93 for OVER 2.75 when they put their odds up – someone's going to catch those odds...)

FT 0:0

CONF SOUTH

Basingstoke – Havant OVER 3.5 (2.63 @Blue Square) 5 units

Basingstoke are currently 9th, but you already know they aren't that dangerous lately – they conceded 24 goals in the last 7 matches, they lost 0:6 at 2nd Eastbourne and 1:5 at home to 8th Fisher before sharing points at 3rd Hampton (2:2) who are also starting to make way for some other teams. They had a lot of injury and suspension problems lately – a couple of players returned for the Hampton match, but as much as three standard players picked up injuries during that match (another two got sent off, but are allowed to play in this match), so now Basingstoke once again have serious problems – defenders Watkins, Whisken and Hankin, midfielder Laidler and strikers Charles and Tarpey are all out injured or very doubtful. Out of last 6 Basingstoke's home matches in the league, only one didn't produce 4 goals or more – a boring draw against strugglers Weston, currently 17th.

Havant aren't the best away team in the league (in fact, they're almost the worst), but if they want a play-off spot (not a mission impossible, they're currently 13th but they played the least matches of all teams in Conf South because of that amazing FA Cup run that ended away at mighty Liverpool), they have to try their best in every match untill the end of the season. They won only for the second time away from home this Tuesday at Sutton (3:1) and although Sutton are bottom of the table, they're improving. Havant have three wins in the last four matches (3:1 vs St Albans at home, 2:1 vs Cambridge at home, 3:1 away at Sutton) and their two recent away defeats (both high-scoring matches, 1:4 at Bishop's Stortford and 1:3 at Hayes) must've showed them that they have to try harder away from home if they want a real chance for a play-off spot. Out of last 6 Havant's away matches in the league, only one didn't produce 4 goals or more – a boring draw against strugglers Bognor, currently 18th.

Maybe I should have just wrote down the results from the last seven matches, both Basingstoke's and Havant's:

Basingstoke – 3:4 Eastleigh (h), 0:4 Lewes (a), 3:2 Bognor (h), 2:1 Maidenhead (a), 0:6 Eastbourne (a), 1:5 Fisher (h), 2:2 Hampton (a).

Havant – 1:4 Bishop's Stortford (a), 3:1 St Albans (h), 4:2 Swansea (h), 2:5 Liverpool (a), 1:3 Hayes (a), 2:1 Cambridge (h), 3:1 Sutton (a).

(2.89 at Stanleybet for OVER 3.5, Pinnacle will probably have something like 1.93 for OVER 2.75 when they put their odds up – someone's going to catch those odds...)

FT 2:3

RYMAN PREMIER

Billericay – Harrow 1 (2.20 @Skybet) 5 units

Billericay are doing great lately – they have 5 wins and a draw against Wimbledon (who finally look like the wealthiest club in the league) in their last 6 matches. A couple of weeks ago, they were down in the relegation zone, but their new management team did a great job and now they're finally where they belong – in the play-zone, currently 5th. Burbridge, Woods-Garness and Hunter all scored a couple of goals each lately and they also have proven goalscorer Bricknell who came from Leyton lately. When Flack returns, Billericay will definately start to look as the potential Conf South team for next season. But, like I said, 16 out of 18 points in the last 6 matches says it all really. They've always been traditionally great at home – this season they were in a crisis for quite some time (8-2-4, 28:18 at home), that's why they have these four defeats at home this season, but if we look at their last five home matches, we see four wins (13th Harlow, 19th Wealdstone, 18th Heybridge, but also 8th Horsham nine days ago) and that already mentioned 2:2 draw with 2nd Wimbledon. Harrow managed to beat them 3:1 at their place at the beginning of the season and this should be another sweet revenge.

Harrow are currently 10th, but now when talented winger Shroot returned to Wimbledon (another winger Adomah went to Barnet in January), they're certainly weakened (and they played the most matches of all teams except for poor Leyton) and away from home, they're really nothing to be scared of (4-5-6, 19:25). They were great in January, won four matches in a row, but now they have two defeats in a row (2:3 at 11th Ashford, 0:2 at home to 2nd Wimbledon last Saturday, when they were 'weofully short of attacking options' – quote from a neutral match report btw) – no Shroot, no wins. They'll also miss standard midfielder Highton due to suspension here and I'd be surprised if they manage to do something here. Very nice odds.

(2.00 at Gamebookers, Sportingbet, Bwin, Bet-at-home, PartyBets, 1.90 at Stanleybet...)

FT 1:1

UNIBOND PREMIER

Kendal – Buxton 2 (2.00 @Bet365) 4 units

Kendal are one of the worst home teams in the league (2-6-5, 15:20 at home), they've dissapointed their fans (who thought Kendal could fight for promotion this season) so much that they don't even have a website currently. They had some nice results in January, but now they have two defeats in a row (0:2 at 5th Eastwood and 0:1 to 13th North Ferriby last Saturday) again and will be without Kilford and Hobson, both due to suspension. They're currently 19th, the best team in the relegation zone (3rd from bottom) but I suppose they still have chance to pull it off and stay in the league – 18th Leek and 17th Ilkeston have only a point more. But, Buxton really look too strong for them at the moment – fair odds should be around 1.80.

Buxton are currently 6th, but they haven't played a league match for three weeks now (all their matches lately got postponed) – they played four matches less than 4th Marine and have only two points less. They're the best away team in the league (8-4-2, 18:11 away) and if we look at their last last four away matches, we see three wins (at 4th Marine, 11th Worksop and 15th Prescot) and a defeat at league leaders Witton. They have five wins in a row (four of those were handicap wins) and a couple of new players (one of four new players is striker Lugsden who came from a Conf North outfit Leigh RMI), so midfielder Ridley's absence due to suspension shouldn't be that big a deal.

(2.00 also at Skybet, 1.90 at Coral and Bwin, only 1.70 at Stanleybet...)

FT 1:1

- 18:14 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

12.02.2008., utorak

12.2.2008. +3.9 units

CONF SOUTH

Braintree – Hampton & Richmond 2 (2.50 @Skybet) 3 units

Braintree are currently 12th, but let's be honest, they're really not unbeatable at home. They have 5-3-4 (13:13) at home, but Braintree's toughest home matches are yet to come – after 3rd Hampton, they still have to play home matches against 1st Lewes, 6th Bath, 5th Newport and 2nd Eastbourne. They managed to beat 10th Bromley (in August), 21st Dorchester (in October), 9th Basingstoke, 18th Bognor (both in November) and 8th Bishop's Stortford (on New Year's Day) at home this season and that's fine with me – Bromley, Basingstoke and Bishop's Stortford are all very inconsistent, on/off teams this season, and Dorchester and Bognor are both fighting for survival. Every single win of those was a narrow win by one goal only. What's more interesting are the teams Braintree only managed to share points with at home and the teams they lost to at home. They drew with 20th St Albans, 16th Maidenhead and 13th Thurrock – all relegation candidates really (don't let Thurrock's current position fool you) – and lost to 4th Eastleigh, 7th Fisher, 11th Hayes and 15th Cambridge (in their last home match three weeks ago). It's obvious now – this will be their toughest home match so far and when we know that they only managed to score one goal in the last four matches (0:2 at Fisher, 0:1 to Cambridge, 1:0 at Maidenhead, 0:0 at Bath City this Saturday when they could've lost, but Bath's penalty kick went too high), these odds look even better. They have a couple of injury doubts and they desperately need a striker – their best scorer this season is Sullivan who scored only six goals, but he hasn't scored for four matches now so he's not that big of a threat. With this kind of squad (very good defence, lousy attack), they probably won't allow Hampton to go crazy and score four or five (something that Hampton do from time to time), but I think Hampton will still be better by a single goal or maybe two. A low scoring draw (something like 0:0 or 1:1) is also possible here, but I have to take this value bet because my odds on Hampton here could never be higher than 2.10.

Hampton had a beautiful season so far, they already managed to collect 50 points (that – and by that they meant avoiding relegation – was their main goal for this season) so now they can relax and play some good, attacking football untill the end of the season. They're currently 3rd, they have a great chance for a play-off spot, they're one of the best away teams in the league (7-3-3, 24:17), they lost only two out of last 18 matches and now they welcome back a couple of important players who were injured, suspended and absent lately. Because of those injuries and suspensions (standard forwards McAuley and McIntosh were both suspended on Saturday, but now they're available) they've put out a lot less dangerous team against Basingstoke this Saturday and the match ended 2:2. Basingstoke welcomed back a couple of very important players and that match was a clear NO BET match (or a high-draw-possibility match as I don't bet on draws) for me, even after those recent terrible results for Basingstoke. Okay, like I said, standard forward McAuley and standard midfielder McIntosh are now back in the team, just like midfielder Matthews, defender Barnett and their probably the best scorer Yaku, another standard defender Paris will be 100% ready too (he played with some jet-lag after playing for Anguilla and losing 0:12... It's a long story really), some other players who were injured lately should also come back and suspended defender Ryan Lake won't be very missed (not after two red cards in two weeks – one of Basingstoke's goals this Saturday was a penalty kick that he was guilty for) – he sits on the bench more than he plays lately, even when he's allowed to. Three away defeats for Hampton happened at 6th Bath City (in August), 8th Bishop's Stortford (in September) and at bottom of the table (but motivated and determined to stay in the league– we saw that this Saturday when we placed a winning bet on them) Sutton (again, on New Year's Day – Boxing Day and New Year's Day are always full of crazy results). They shared points at 11th Hayes (in August), 2nd Eastbourne (in December) and 5th Newport (ten days ago) and won away at 18th Bognor, 13th Thurrock, 9th Basingstoke, 14th but traditionally great at home Havant, 21st Dorchester, 15th Cambridge and leaders Lewes (that was Lewes' first home defeat of this season).

(2.40 at Blue Square, 2.35 at Stanleybet, 2.25 at StanJames, Gamebookers, Coral, Betway, Betsafe...)

FT 3:0

RYMAN PREMIER

Horsham – Wimbledon 2 (2.30 @Coral) 3 units

Horsham have been great at home this season, they have ten wins, one draw and two defeats at home, but this time it's a bit different – it's mighty Wimbledon they're up against. Horsham are always great when some mid-table or struggling team comes to them, but they had a lot of problems with the best teams in the league. They managed to beat 16th Folkestone (1:0), 12th Boreham Wood (3:2), 15th Carshalton (4:1), 1st Chelmsford (narrow win in September, 2:1, both teams were without a couple of injured standard players), 19th Wealdstone (4:0), 10th Harrow (1:0), 9th Margate (1:0), 20th East Thurrock (3:0), 6th Hornchurch (3:1) and 22nd Leyton (5:1). They lost to 2nd Staines (2:4 in October) and 14th Maidstone (1:2 in December), and shared points with 7th Ramsgate (1:1 two weeks ago). The only result that kind of stands out is the win against Chelmsford back in September. Horsham will be without midfielder Brake (who was very missed on Saturday) and defender Geard, both due to suspension. Midfielders Carney and Charman, and terrific deaf forward Farrell are all major doubts for this match (injuries). All of these players are standard first-teamers. Horsham did bring in two new midfielders lately (Ward who played away at Carshalton because of the injuries and suspensions and still not 100% fit Hawthorne who still sits on the bench), but they failed to bring in two most important players they were interested about.

Wimbledon really want to get promoted and who knows, if Chelmsford loses some more matches (like this Saturday, when they shockingly lost 0:4 at home to Hornchurch) and Wimbledon wins a couple of matches in a row, maybe they even get a chance for the title = automatic promotion to Conference South. I wrote a lot about them last time – they have the most fans in this league by far and that means more money when a couple of players get injured. They've been doing it all season – when someone gets injured, they just go out there and buy the best player from some rival or bring in a player on loan from leagues above who was already loaned to some Ryman Premier club. It's called having a cake and eating it too – their opponents get weaker and they are always capable of putting out a team that can beat anyone at this level of football. They have no more suspension problems, most of the injured players are now back and this Saturday's 2:0 away win at in-form 10th Harrow filled them with some confidence that was desperately needed after that recent bad run. Wimbledon's individual quality and determination should once again prove to be the difference here. Horsham could find themself in the play-off zone at the end of the season, but Wimbledon will be there too and they're trying to get as close to Chelmsford as possible. Great odds, nice little value bet.

(2.55 at Stanleybet – amazing odds, 2.30 also at Tipico and Primebet, 2.25 at Bwin and Bet-at-home, 2.20 at Gamebookers, Sportingbet, Skybet, Bet365, Paddy Power... )

FT 0:2

CONF SOUTH

Dorchester – Bishop's Stortford 2 (2.00 @StanJames) 3 units

I thought about this match for a long time – it appears everybody (including Dorchester's fans) thinks Bishop's Stortford will win this match by four or five goals, but I don't think it's going to be that easy. Bishop's Stortford really aren't the best away team in Conf South (6-2-4, 18:15) and I wouldn't bet on them if odds were lower than 2.00, but this is a good price and I'll be glad to take it after all. Dorchester have four handicap defeats in a row, another couple of players left them in the last few days, they have some injury doubts too, they're traditionally awful at home and they're the biggest relegation candidates at the moment if you ask me (I wrote about them a lot lately). Bishop's Stortford weren't very good away from home recently (a narrow win at Sutton, defeats at Braintree and Thurrock) but should be a lot better team in this match. They will miss two defenders, but they have a big squad and I don't see that as that big of a problem. They have two home wins in a row (2:1 vs 2nd Eastbourne, 5:3 vs Bognor) and if they want a play-off spot, they have to win matches like this. In fact, they have to win this match and if they don't underestimate their currently very poor opponents, they'll grab all three points here.

(2.00 also at Blue Square and Betway, 1.91 at Gamebookers, Skybet, Paddy Power, PartyBets, only 1.85 at Stanleybet...)

FT 0:4

- 22:38 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

09.02.2008., subota

9.2.2008. +22.12 units

CONF SOUTH

Fisher – Eastleigh OVER 3.5 (2.88 @Blue Square) 6 units

We have two teams that both love open, attacking football, score (and concede) a lot of goals – Fisher's manager recently said that they want to entertain the fans, have fun playing football that is attractive to watch, they play a quick passing game, without closing the match defensively when the result is good ('...I could tell us to play the most boring stuff ever and grind out results, but that's not the way we do things here...'). That's what this match should be all about. Fisher are a very young squad – the majority of players (and manager) came from two leagues below at the beginning of this season and they've done a great job – I'm impressed, they even have their own sports psychologist. They're currently 4th, they had seven wins in a row before sharing points (1:1) at improved Weston on a cold Monday night (only two days after a glorious 5:1 away win at Basingstoke – we were there of course to bet on them) and if we look at their last 7 matches (in the last 40 days), we can see that they scored 18 and conceded 7 goals). At home they even conceded more than they scored (24 goals in 14 home matches, more than any other play-off candidates) and in the last three home matches (all wins), they scored as much as 9 goals. They have a lot of great scorers, I wrote about that last time (Thomas scored 8, Tomlin scored 5, McCollin 4 and Goulding 3 in the last month, a bit more).

Eastleigh are, on the other hand, very good away from home – in their 13 away matches played, they scored 24 and conceded 18 goals. They scored 7 goals in their last two away matches, both wins (4:3 at Basingstoke, 3:0 at Bognor) and they'll again be without their standard defender Everitt, but also without midfielder Byles (both due to suspension). Last Saturday, we placed a winning bet on their match against Dorchester to produce at least 4 goals and it was 3:1. If Dorchester managed to score (and I think Everitt's absence must have something to do with out) away at Eastleigh, Fisher should score at least two or three at home to Eastleigh. Eastleigh also have a lot of in-form scorers – Scales and Forbes both scored 5 and Marshall scored 3 in the last month. Their on-loan star winger Marshall completed a permanent transfer recently. They're currently 7th and their play-off chances are very much alive. Should be a very good match. And yes, Saturday should be all sunny.

(Stanleybet offer 2.89 for OVER 3.5, 1.71 for OVER 2.5 and gigantic 22.0 for both 6 goals and 7 or more goals... Pinnacle offer 1.93 for OVER 2.75 and 10Bet should have similar odds when they put them up...)

FT 1:4

NORTH/SOUTH DOUBLE: Hyde – Leigh RMI 1 @1.50 & Dorchester – Eastbourne 2 @1.75 (2.625 @Betway) 4 units

Hyde are currently 7th, they had a pretty long bad run recently, but managed to beat very good (especially lately) 11th Boston this Sunday at home and they're probably starting to think of themselves as play-off candidates again. They have every right to because they have some quality players in the team and promotion is their main goal this season. They're still one of the best home teams in Conf North, they have a quality pitch at home, probably the best forward in the league Seddon is still scoring almost in every match and I'm sure they won't lack motivation because if they win and Nuneaton and Stalybridge both lose, they'll be 5th – in the play-off zone again.

After a home 0:3 defeat to Telford this Tuesday, Leigh RMI fans wrote this on their forum: '...Cannot argue with the score. They outplayed us for 90 minutes... I reckon we only need another 7-8 players to out a good team...''. Before that, they also lost at 17th Solihull and they lost all three away matches in January (1:2 at 15th Workington, 1:5 at 11th Boston, 1:6 at 2nd Telford). They're currently 22nd, bottom of the table by far and they're the worst away team in the league (1-2-11, 10:33). We could see a lot of goals here if Hyde players finally have a good day, but they are struggling lately and I think they'd be just as happy with a 1:0 win.

Dorchester are currently second to bottom in Conf South, they have three defeats in a row (1:4 at the very same Eastbourne, 0:3 at home to poor 20th St Albans, 1:3 away at 7th Eastleigh) and they're traditionally awful when playing at home – last season, they had 6-2-12, this season it's 2-3-8 so far. Like I already said, they're a mess at the moment – a bunch of players are going and coming, seven board members left, there has been talks about moving and ground-sharing, they have some problems with injuries... They have one win in their last 17 (!) matches and if you ask me, I think that even bottom of the table Sutton has more chance for staying in the league than poor Dorchester. They played a friendly match this Tuesday at Dorset Premier League (?) outfit Portland United, lost 0:2. Their manager had a plan to look at five or six new players, but in the end he only invited one because of the bad weather and that one limped off the pitch injured. Even if they do bring a new face or two, it's going to be very hard against Eastbourne. Dorchester's fans know it too ('...(new) goalkeeper looked very shaky...', '...we need a leader on the pitch...', '... as soon as they equalised our heads dropped and their was only going to be one winner...', '... we're simply not good enough...', '... after Saturday we have 3 winnable games...'). Not much of an atmosphere there...

Eastbourne are currently 2nd, but they played two matches less and have only six points less than current leaders Lewes. Last Saturday they lost 1:2 at play-off candidates Bishop's Stortford, but it was their first away defeat all season (8-4-1, 26:13 away from home). Before that defeat at improved Bishop's Stortford, they won 2:1 at 16th Maidenhead, 2:1 at 7th Eastleigh and 4:0 at 4th Fisher and shared points in a 2:2 draw at league leaders Lewes. They have a couple of in-form strikers upfront – Nathan Crabb scored four times in the last three matches and Atkin scored three times. It was all Eastbourne when these outfits played on Eastbourne's pitch three weeks ago (4:1 for Eastbourne) and I expect a strong win for Eastbourne once again.

(2.62 also at Skybet, 2.59 at Bet365, 2.50 at Gamebookers, 2.49 at StanJames, 2.47 at Stanleybet...)

FT 1:1 / 0:4

RYMAN PREMIER

Harrow – Wimbledon 2 (2.38 @StanJames) 4 units

Harrow are currently 10th, but Ryman Premier is extremely unpredictable this season – any team can beat another on their day. Harrow, for instance, have only 10 points more (and played two matches more) than 19th Hastings who is down in the relegation zone, but also only six points less than 2nd Hendon. What we can focus on is the motivation, determination, support and individual quality (coupled with value odds indeed) and Wimbledon are one of two teams that are almost always a favourite in a Ryman Premier match. Because of all that, I simply have to bet on Wimbledon at these odds. Harrow had four straight wins in January (three of those four teams teams are relegation candidates though – 22nd Leyton, 17th Heybridge, 15th Boreham Wood and 6th Ramsgate), but finally lost some points last Saturday at 13th Ashord (lost 2:3, scored out of two penalty kicks). Highly acclaimed young winger Shroot who was one of the key players in Harrow's January fairytale (and scored three goals in those January matches, 8 goals in 12 matches all together) won't play in this match because he is in fact Wimbledon's player on loan at Harrow and Wimbledon's manager now recalled him – of course. Harrow have 8-0-6 at home, nothing special. They scored a lot of goals in those 14 matches – 31, but conceded more goals at home than any other outfit (except Leyton of course) – 30. Wimbledon will score here – I hope more than they can concede.

Wimbledon now have five matches in a row without a victory, but they're still 3rd and they still very much want to promote (and they're still one of the best away teams, not to mention their away support that could also prove very important). They produced a battling performance against Conference National high-flyers Torquay in the FA Trophy (we were there to bet against them), full of energy and effort, they were a lot better than I thought they would be with all those players out. They have a new keeper (Pullen from Eastleigh) and now they brought in striker Cumbers on loan from Gillingham and another talented forward Rose on loan from QPR. Shroot is back and can easily replace one of the injured players, but some of those players who were injured are now also back in the team (defence should look a lot more solid than in the last couple of matches) and Wimbledon definately want to win this match – and promote to Conf South at the end of the season. I think their motivation and individual quality will prove to be crucial here. And yes, it was 2:1 for Harrow at Wimbledon four months ago (it was the first Wimbledon's home defeat, completely unexpected – I bet it hurts still). 2.38 for a sweet revenge like this? Anytime.

(2.38 also at Gamebookers, Skybet and PartyBets, 2.30 at Bet365 and Paddy Power, 2.25 at Stanleybet... 1.68 currently at Pinnacle for DRAW NO BET...)

FT 0:2

SOUTHERN PREMIER

Hemel Hempstead – Team Bath 2 (1.83 @StanJames) 4 units

Team Bath are doing great in Souther Premier, but odds on them were awful lately and now we finally have a bit of value here. Team Bath are currently 2nd, but they played two matches less than leaders King's Lynn who also have 51 point (Team Bath have 15-6-3 and King's Lynn have 15-6-5). Team Bath have 5 wins in a row, two away wins in a row, they're the best away team in the league (8-2-1, scored 16 and conceded only 6 goals away from home, lost only at the second best home team in the league, Halesowen) and they have the league's best scorer – Sean Canham who already scored 23 league goals so far and is currently on fire. They're an academy outfit, I already wrote about their regular trainings earlier in the season and I really like these odds. A narrow win would be fine enough.

Hemel Hempstead are currently 6th, they're starting to get left behind (played more matches than most of the teams around them – no midweek fixtures for them in the near future), they're the worst home team in the league except for Cheshunt of course (3 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats), in the last four matches they have three defeats (1:5 away at 12th Tiverton, 0:2 at home to 13th Bromsgrove, 0:1 away at 14th Swindon last Saturday when the hosts totally dominated the match and could've easily won by a lot more goals) and a win away at bottom of the table Cheshunt (a month ago), they lost a couple of important players lately and now they're going to be without suspended defender Bowden-Hasse. And yes, one of their two managers just got fired (from the fans' forum: ''...Maybe someone could let me know whats going on? Danny going, players leaving and after good start bit of a slide down table...', '...Get someone in who can motivate the players and I still think we could just about reach the play-offs, stay as we are and mid-table beckons...', '...The difference last season is that Steve Bateman had players who were willing to fight and really dig deep to grind out results. Watching that display Saturday it's hard to see where the fight and effort is going to come from...'). Can the other manager do the job? Against Team Bath? With a non-motivated and a weakened team? I honestly don't think so and even if I prove to be wrong, this would still be a good value bet because at the moment, my odds would be 1.70 max...

(2.05 at Stanleybet, 1.86 currently at Pinnacle, 1.85 at Tipico, 1.83 also at Coral, Paddy Power and Skybet, 1.80 at Bwin and Bet365...)

FT 1:3

CONF SOUTH

Sutton – Thurrock 1 (3.00 @Blue Square) 3 units

Sutton are bottom of the table, but they didn't lose hope – in fact, they just brought in Ramsgate's top-scorer Ball (14 goals so far this season) and that could only help Dundas who didn't have a good enough partner upront – untill now. Dundas himself scored 8 out of last 11 Sutton's goals. Another recent signing is the on-loan arrival of central defender El-Salahi few weeks ago from Eastleigh (El-Salahi went straight into the first team and stayed there) and both Honey and McBean are finally fit. Sutton were quite solid last Saturday away at 8th Bromley – lost 0:1, but they should've got a penalty kick that was ignored by the referee. They were also unfortunate not to get something from their last home match against 5th Newport. Again they lost 0:1, that time the ball struck Dundas' arm in the Sutton's box and referee pointed to the spot. That goal from a penalty was the only goal scored, but it was obvious even then that Sutton will take some points soon. This home match against lousy visitors from Thurrock is the perfect opportunity and you should know that Sutton managed to beat 3rd Hampton at home a month ago (it was 2:1 for Sutton and also 2:2 a week later away at Hampton) and they have to hurry if they want to try and avoid relegation. They will definately be more motivated than Thurrock who are comfortably mid-tabled (13th currently). Ball could be a big refreshment upfront and Thurrock probably expect a lot easier match than they will get. A message to Ball from one of Sutton's fans: '...a hatrick against Thurrock would be nice, no pressure...'. Oh I love a sence of humor during the bad days. So they really have nothing more to lose and I can't see Thurrock being more determined in this match. If you're worried about Sutton's four defeats in a row, you should know that they really had tough opponents (after they shocked Hampton, they won away at poor St Albans too, but then lost to 6th Bath, 4th Fisher, 5th Newport and 8th Bromley – all very serious promotion canditates).

Thurrock had a couple of amazing results at home recently, but away from home they're nothing to be scared of, winning only once in their last 9 matches (they lost 1:8 at 8th Bromley, shared points at struggling, 19th Welling, surprisingly won at relaxed Hampton and finally lost 1:3 at 18th Bognor few weeks ago). They will be without both of their central defenders – Paine who started every single match for Thurrock this season so he's obviously hard to replace (he was even the man of the match two weeks ago against Bishop's Stortford when Thurrock managed to score a goal and keep a clean sheet) and Swaine who is the current fans' favourite but now will be missed for six matches in a row. I just found out about Swaine – planned to bet against Thurrock even when I thought he'll be in the team. But now, when I know that Paine and Swaine are both out – I'm raising my stake from 2 to 3 units. Last season, it was 2:1 for Sutton and I hope for a similar result that really wouldn't be that big a surprise.

(3.30 at Stanleybet – value bet indeed, 3.00 also at Coral, 2.95 at Digibet, 2.85 at Betway, 2.80 at Sportingbet, 2.75 at Gamebookers, Bwin and PartyBets... 1.72 for (+0.25) at Pinnacle currently...)

FT 1:0

- 18:39 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

06.02.2008., srijeda

5.2.2008. -5 units

SETANTA/RYMAN DOUBLE: St Albans – Aldershot 2 @1.55 & Leyton – Staines 2 @1.40 (2.17 @Bwin) 5 units

Very nice odds for Conference National leaders Aldershot to win at Conf South strugglers, 20th St Albans, in the 5th round of Setanta Shield. I know this is only the 3rd cup competition by importance in England, but I also know how St Albans are struggling at the moment and I can't help but see some value in these odds.

St Albans are in the relegation zone down in Conf South, they managed to win only one home match this season in the league (1-3-9, 8:27 at home – the worst home goal-difference in the league) and they were awful this Saturday, lost 0:3 at home to 16th Maidenhead (they tried to shoot only three times in the whole match). They have three defeats (to 15th Cambridge, 22nd Sutton and 16th Maidenhead) and a draw (with 12th Braintree in December) in the last four home matches and they'll be without standard midfielder Bruce and best scorer Clarke both due to suspensions and new striker Hakim who is now a standard forward is cup-tied (another important striker Butler just went to Staines and a couple of players who were at St Albans a few seasons ago returned to the club recently, but Hakim being cup-tied and these suspensions are more important than those returns and Butler's departure). St Albans did manage to beat another Conf National high-flyers Torquay in the last round of Setanta Shield, but that was the biggest shock of that round by far (and these kinds of shocks don't happen very often) and Torquay's manager rested a lot of important players.

Aldershot were at full-strength in the Setanta Shield 4th round and managed to beat league rivals Oxford (who are a much, much stronger team than St Albans this season) and, although I suppose this time their manager will rest a few players this time, if they take this match at least a bit serious, they will have no problem whatsoever (Aldershot's manager admits he'll rest one or two players, but, like he says, 'whoever plays will be champing at the bit'). Setanta Shield rules are very clear – 'no fewer than ten of the 16 players named on the team sheet must have taken part in the club's two previous Football Conference fixtures'.

Aldershot lost their striker Dixon to League One outfit Brighton recently, but Hylton, Joel Grant and their best striker John Grant who scored five goals in the last five matches and 18 goals all together this season stay put and I'm pretty confident that St Albans will concede a few goals here even if John Grant ends up on the bench. Aldershot are the current leaders (six points more than Torquay, but they played two matches more than Torquay) and the best away team in the Conference National (9-1-4, 24:18 away from home). They had an amazing run, won 12 times in 13 matches, then they lost twice in a row (to promotion candidates in Conf National), but quicly bounced back with a league win against Oxford and an FA Trophy win against another Conf South outfit, Braintree. It was 3:0 for Aldershot this Saturday – Braintree didn't have a chance and I don't think St Albans stand much chance either. Last season, these two teams both played in Conf National – it was 2:0 for Aldershot at their place and 5:3 also for Aldershot at St Albans' place.

Nothing new to say about Leyton, 'the oldest club in London'. Their extremely young and unexperienced squad have 12 defeats in a row (their goal-difference in these 12 matches is 7:45), their last home win happened in October, all the best players left the club a long time ago and they will surely get relegated. I just saw those five goals they conceded this Saturday at Horsham – some of those goals were very funny.

Staines are one of the best away outfits in Ryman Premier, they are serious promotion candidates and they finally managed to win this Saturday (2:1 at Wealdstone), after they picked up only two points in three matches. They have a new striker Butler who came from a league above (St Albans) and a couple of players who have been injured are now are back in the team. Staines are currently 4th, but you should know that they played as many as five matches less than 2nd Hendon (they played less matches than all the other four teams in the play-off zone) and have only four points less than Hendon. 3rd Wimbledon have only one point more, but they played two matches more. Not the greatest odds imaginable, but fair odds would be 1.20...

(2.13 at Gamebookers and PartyBets, 2.08 at Skybet, 2.04 at Sportingbet and Paddy Power, 2.02 at StanJames...)

FT 0:4 / 2:2

- 18:15 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

03.02.2008., nedjelja

2.2.2008. +12.97 units

CONF SOUTH

Basingstoke – Fisher 2 /DRAW NO BET (2.00 @Betway) 7 units

Incredible odds for a DRAW NO BET here – we will make +7 units profit in case of an away win or get our money back in case of a draw.

Basingstoke are currently 8th, but like I said already a hundred times, they were never serious play-off candidates. Their negative goal-difference (40:45) says a lot really. I wrote a lot about Basingstoke a week ago – before their 0:6 defeat at Eastbourne that brought us a nice couple of units. They will again be without defenders Whisken (suspension) and Townsend (injury) and midfielders Surey (suspension) and Laidler (injury), but now they will also be without their experienced right-back Smith (suspension) and maybe even central defender Dolan (injury). Four out of five are standard players (Townsend is a sub who could play right-back instead of Smith if he was fit), it was very hard for them to play against Eastbourne and it's going to be even tougher now when Smith, who even scored three goals in the last 10 matches (he is practically unreplaceable, like Surey, and we saw what happened at Eastbourne, when Surey didn't play), is also out. Vockins should be a debutant in Basingstoke's back four in this match – he never started a match this season so far and was the only unused sub at Eastbourne. Their new keeper Tardiff (joined them a month and a half ago) conceded 17 goals in the last 5 matches. At home, they managed to beat only the teams that are relegation candidates (22nd Sutton, 15th Cambridge, 13th Thurrock, 21st Dorchester, 19th Welling, 20th St Albans, 18th Bognor Regis – the only exception is the shock-win over 5th Newport two months ago) – they lost to 2nd Eastbourne, 3rd Hampton, 10th Bishop's Stortford and 6th Eastleigh. They shared points only once at home – it was a goalless draw against another relegation candidates, 16th Weston. They also lost both their FA Cup and FA Trophy home matches against league rivals (0:1 to Newport in the FA Cup, 1:4 to Lewes in the FA Trophy).

Fisher are currently 7th, but they played two matches less than Basingstoke. 4th Bath City, who played the same number of matches like Fisher, have only three points more than Fisher. They're one of the best away teams in the league (7-1-4) and currently have six wins in a row. In fact, it would've been eight wins in a row if they managed to beat league leaders Lewes back in December – they didn't, but nailed six wins after that, scoring 13 and conceding only 5 goals. They have three away wins in a row – they managed to beat 19th Welling, 9th Bromley and 4th Bath City – so it's not only relegation candidates they can beat. At Bath City, they had two penalty kicks – scored one and missed one, but were a better team – their keeper was apparently just a spectator for most of the match. They fully deserved all three points at Bromley too – I just saw the match highlights. They have very dangerous counter-attacks (they should score at least a couple of goals here) and their defence looks very solid. They also have three home wins in a row, but that's another story. Btw, it was 4:1 for Fisher at their place back in August. Fisher have great scorers in Goulding, Tomlin, Thomas, McCollin (who was rested at Bath after scoring four goals vs Sutton), it doesn't matter who plays and who sits on the bench (Goulding is on his way out currently, but that doesn't worry me), and they have no suspension problems. Great odds.

(You can also improvize this DRAW NO BET yourself – StanJames offer 2.63 and BetDirect and Better both offer 2.62 for an away win, and both Skybet and Stanleybet offer 3.60 for a draw... Pinnacle were also generous with their 1.93 for a DRAW NO BET –it's 1.87 currently...)

FT 1:5

FA TROPHY

Wimbledon – Torquay 2 (1.72 @StanJames) 6 units

Wimbledon have more important things to worry about right now than the FA Trophy. Their recent results in the Ryman Premier haven't been good and it looks like they will have to win in the play-off final match to get into Conference South (no automatic promotion for them, I'm afraid), because Chelmsford have as much as 15 points more than Wimbledon (who played only one match less) and I don't think they can lose more than 12 points untill the end of the season – and even if they do, Wimbledon are going to lose some more points too. All throughout the season, they've been very unlucky with injuries and I think they would rather play this FA Trophy match right now than another league match. If we look at their matches from a month ago untill now we can see two defeats and two draws, not one win. They lost away at 17th Folkestone, then shared points away at 10th Billericay (who were leading twice) and at home with 18th Tonbridge (last Saturday) and then, finally, lost at home to 12th Boreham Wood this Tuesday. They have a lot of fans and the biggest crowds on their home matches by far in this league, but this season, they're only the 8th home team of the league (7-3-3). They changed 7 goalkeepers already this season, their record signing Main (a great striker who came from league rivals Tonbridge) will be out for two months, just like one of the best left-backs in the league Haswell and, all together, they had only 12 permanent first-teamers for the Boreham Wood match two days ago. They're the lowest-ranked team left in this competition and I think the journey's over, even if a couple of injured players come back into the team for this match.

I just have to copy/paste this almost in it's entirety: ''...AFC Wimbledon boss Terry Brown fears his side may have to contain non-league football's most potent strike duo on Saturday with only one first choice defender. Goalkeeper Andy Little (broken finger), Luke Garrard (knee) and Michael Haswell (knee) are already ruled out of this weekend's FA Trophy visit of Blue Square Premier high-flyers Torquay United. Jason Goodliffe faces a late fitness test on a sore hamstring that could leave just Antony Frankie' Howard - back from a three match suspension - as the sole regular in Brown's back four. Versatile Jake Leberl (shin) and midfielder Mark Beard (knee) are on the treatment table, while hotshot Jon Main is cup-tied for a game he would have missed anyway after breaking his foot in Saturday's 2-2 draw with his former club Tonbridge Angels. Meanwhile, the Gulls expect to have former Don Roscoe Dsane and ex-Kingstonian striker Tim Sills, the club's leading scorer, in their line-up for the biggest game in AFC's six-year history. And Brown has admitted the hitmen - whom he managed in his spell in charge at Aldershot - have the potential to wreck their hopes of making the fourth round. He said: "They are an experienced and talented front two - probably the most potent strike force in non-league football at the moment. It is my job to work out a way of stopping them. "It is going to be even more difficult without our first choice defenders. Without them, we have conceded seven goals in our past three games. You can sometimes have four or five of your squad out and get away with it but, with seven regulars on the sidelines, it will be tough. They are the best team we will face all year but, on our day, we can be just as potent. We have nothing to lose." Brown's team have played 12 games since December 22 and he believes his stretched resources are a symptom of the strain taking its toll. They hardly go into their big game in the best frame of mind, Tuesday night's 1-0 home defeat by Boreham Wood being their fourth game without a win...''.

Torquay are the second best away team in Conference National (8-3-3, 33:24) and they're also currently 2nd on the league table (Conf National is two levels above Ryman Premier). New signing D'Sane and Sills make a great forward duo upfront (they played together a couple of years ago at Aldershot so they know each other) and another two new signings, Mohamed and Adams, both played very good against another team that plays great away from home, Histon (Torquay won 1:0, but it could've been a lot more), a couple of days ago. They obviously take the FA Trophy Cup seriously – they won 2:1 at Newport (who play in Conf South and are currently a lot better team than Wimbledon) a few weeks ago and they were full-strength, so I expect a full-strength Torquay team this time too. They shouldn't lack motivation – final match of this competition will be played at mighty Wembley and that's something you can't ignore. Their only away defeat in the last four months (!) was at 6th Exeter, but that was a crazy Boxing Day fixture, the result was 3:4. In these four months, Torquay managed to win at 11th York, Conf South outfit Bath City (in the FA Cup), 14th Crawley, 21st Farsley, 16th Woking and another Conf South outfit Newport (in the FA Trophy), and share points at 15th Oxford (in October) and 10th Salisbury (two weeks ago, hit the woodwork twice) – both great home teams (Oxford have only two home defeats so far and Salisbury have three). Woods will be back after being suspended and these odds look great.

(1.72 also at Bet365, Blue Square, Ladbrokes, Coral, BetDirect...)

FT 0:2

CONF NORTH

Gainsborough – Hinckley 1 (1.75 @Bwin) 4 units

Gainsborough are currently 12th, but they're much better at home (6-5-4, 28:20) than away (3-3-7, 15:29). Doesn't look very impressive, I know, they had a bad run earlier this season, but now they have three wins and one draw (when they missed as many as six injured players) in the last four matches, and at home they have two handicap wins in a row – over 20th Vauxhall (3:0) and over league leaders Kettering (who have massive 24 points more than Gainsborough and gigantic 39 points more than Hinckley) this Tuesday (3:1). Gainsborough will be without Burley, but they did fine without them against Kettering so they should be alright at home against poor Hinckley.

Hinckley are currently second to bottom, 21st, and they're terrible away from home (2-4-7, 14:28). They have four defeats in a row – they lost away at 14th Redditch, at home to the very same 12th Gainsborough (it was 2:1 for Gainsborough), at home to 10th Boston and, finally, at home to 20th Vauxhall this Monday (0:1). Hinckley did manage to bring in two new players recently – midfielder Hoyte on loan from Cambridge and striker Quailey from Nuneaton – but three players also left them (Byron and Charles returned to their clubs and leading scorer Marrison went to Tamworth). Hinckley will also be without standard midfielder Kelly for the 3rd time in a row.

Copy/pasting from the Hinckley's fans' forum: ''...Three home games in a week against 3 teams in the bottom half, and we come away with nothing. Not only that, but we can only manage one goal, and that's from a dubious penalty. You can moan about the ref (who was an embarrasment tonight), you can moan about bad luck, you can moan about anything, but it doesn't change the fact that from these 3 games we should've been looking for at least 6 points and we've achieved nothing.....We had just 2 or 3 clear chances last night against Vauxhall. That’s a laughable statistic. We have looked to be positive at home and had the majority of possession but without creating chances what good is that? Even Leigh managed to put three past them on Saturday! Please can someone tell me why DT takes off Luke after 50 minutes? Harry Harris did nothing. Was Jacko injured? We badly missed him again. Even Lavs was very bad last night. You could sense the urgency and pressure of what was a must win game from kick off and I think that lack of patience and hurried manner was our downfall...''.

(1.85 currently at Pinnacle, 1.75 also at 10Bet, 1.73 at Bet365, 1.70 at Sportingbet, Bet-at-home, Betway... Only 1.62 at Stanleybet...)

FT 2:2

CONF NORTH

Barrow – Redditch 1 (2.10 @Betway) 4 units

Barrow's management team is still doing a great job there – not so long ago they were very serious relegation candidates, but look at them now. They're 13th, they have the 8th best goal-difference in Conf North (41:33) and four wins in the last five home matches. They managed to trash 2nd Telford (4:0), 8th Burscough (4:1), 20th Vauxhall (4:1) and 12th Gainsborough (4:1 again) before losing to incredible 5th Stalybridge 1:3 last Saturday who have 9 wins in the last 10 matches and seem unstopabble at the moment. Barrow had plenty of possession and two penalties against Stalybridge, but missed some luck and important defender Elderton who got injured in 11th minute (he's back in the team now).

Redditch are currently 14th (played one match more than Barrow), but they're nothing to be afraid of away from home (4-1-8, 10:23). They did have some nice results at home recently, but those wins happened against out-of-form teams, relegation candidates. Last Saturday, they lost 0:1 at home to 17th Solihull and they'll miss their striker Heggs for this match due to suspension. They have three defeats out of four away matches in the last two months – they lost at 4th Harrogate, 9th Worcester and 6th Nuneaton before taking all points at Leigh RMI who are 22nd, bottom of the table by far, and Redditch's 1:0 win was more lucky than deserved.

(2.00 at Stanleybet, StanJames, Blue Square, Sportingbet, Coral, Skybet...)

FT 2:0

CONF SOUTH

(-1.5) Lewes – Bognor 1 (1.92 @10Bet) 4 units

This is, in fact, a normal handicap – Lewes has to win by at least two goals, and I think they're more than capable of doing that against Bognor. We saw what Lewes can do last Saturday, when they trashed Welling 4:0 away from home, and it was also 5:0 for Lewes at Bognor five months ago. Lewes were amazing at Welling (scored four, could've even been more, saved a penalty), I just saw the match highlights, and Bognor aren't much worse at the moment. Lewes have to win matches like these (defeat to Hampton two weeks ago was a nice warning and that was their only result in the last five matches that wasn't a strong, handicap win with a clean sheet) – they are league leaders, but 2nd Eastbourne have only six points less and they played two matches less. 18th Bognor look like an ideal opponent at the moment.

Bognor have one win in the last ten league matches, last Saturday they lost 0:3 at home to on/off Eastleigh and they also have two away defeats in a row – it was 2:3 at soon-to-be-midtable Basingstoke and 0:2 at FA Cup heroes Havant a month ago. Lewes will be without their standard defender Robinson (that's why I'm staking four units only), but this should be a strong win even without him – after all, Bognor will miss a couple of players too (midfielder Birmingham who is also a team coach retired as a player a week ago – fans think that the team doesn't look the same without him as they highly rate him, both as a player and a leader on pitch, striker Beck is a major doubt and Gargan's loan spell has just ended). Lewes are another level of football than Bognor at the moment.

(1.92 also currently at Pinnacle, 1.84 at Stanleybet, 1.70 at Digibet... StanJames, Bet365, BetDirect and some other bookies offer 1.80 for a HT/FT win, but I like these odds and this bet better...)

FT 0:1

CONF SOUTH

Eastleigh – Dorchester OVER 3.5 (2.75 @Blue Square) 3 units

Eastleigh have a new young on-loan goalkeeper from Crystal Palace and will be without standard defender Everitt (played in the last nine matches) due to suspension. Dorchester really have nothing to lose here and I think they could score one or two goals. Eastleigh are currently 6th, but they were a typical on/off team recently – failing to win at home against St Albans, but then trashing Bognor 3:0 away from home last Saturday. After five home matches without a win, it's probably time for a win now and if they score an early goal, we could see a lot of goals here. On-loan winger Marshall is about to sign a permanent contract, he's bain hailed as a new Eastleigh's hero when he arrived and the fans deserve to see their team picking up all the points at home – finally. A handicap win looks pretty good too, but you can never know with Eastleigh – they had a 4:2 lead and a player more at home untill 85th minute when they were playing against Bath City a couple of weeks ago – the match ended 4:4. So, if Dorchester will have a good day, this could also end 3:2, 4:3, something like that... We should see a lot of goals in any case – the weather should be fine, no rain...

Dorchester are currently a mess – a bunch of players are going and coming, seven board members left, there has been talks about moving and ground-sharing... They're currently second to bottom, 21st, and, like I already said, they have nothing to lose here. They have one win in their last 17 (!) matches and if we look at their last four results we can see a lot of goals (and you know what the weather was like). They managed to win, finally, at home vs 15th Cambridge a month ago (3:2), then they shared points away at 12th Hayes (2:2), then lost away at 2nd Eastbourne (1:4) and, last Saturday, they lost at home to direct rivals, 20th St Albans (0:3). After that handicap defeat to poor St Albans, their manager announced we shall see a completely different Dorchester team at Eastleigh. They have a new keeper, a new midfielder and a new striker, keeper Evans and striker Bent are out injured, Browne and Forbes are doubts, five trialists have been let go, maybe even some under-18 boys will play in this match... Oh they will concede here – the question is how many goals...

(2.69 at Stanleybet, 1.86 at Pinnacle and at 10Bet for OVER 2.75... Stanleybet offer 1.63 for OVER 2.5 and 21.8 for OVER 6.5...)

FT 3:1

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