skeeve picks (and wins!)

29.03.2008., subota

29.3.2008. -5.01 units

CONF NORTH

Tamworth – Vauxhall 1 (1.73 @StanJames) 6 units

Tamworth are currently 14th, they have 9-3-6 at home this season, but they won five out of their last six home matches in the league (they lost only to 6th Southport who played a couple of matches less than all the other play-off candidates) and their fans were quite pleased with the team performance this Monday when they managed to beat 3rd Stalybridge 2:0. They will finish mid-table, no doubt about it, but Tamworth had not one, but a couple of great cup runs this season and if they decide to focus more on the league and less on the cups next season, they will definitely finish higher on the table. Burton Albion (3rd in Conference National, league above Conf North) kicked them out of both FA Cup (in the last qualifying round) and Setanta Shield and it took Conference National high-flyers and future champions Aldershot to kick them out of FA Trophy (in the quarter-finals). Before that, they managed to beat another Conference National outfit, Stafford, at home in the 3rd round. So yeah, I'd say that they have a much better squad than most of the mid-table teams in Conference North. They can't get into play-offs, that's true, but with a bit of bad luck, they could slip down the table and find themselves ina relegation battle – they have only nine points more than 19th Hinckley. Away from home they're pretty lousy, but that has nothing to do with this bet. After all, they managed to beat Vauxhall at their place 3:1 in February and they have no suspensions to worry about.

Vauxhall are going down, it gets more obvious every week. They're 21st (five points more than bottom-of-the-table Leigh RMI, but they played two matches more), they're absolutely terrible away from home (2-2-15, 14:48) and once again they will be without their star striker Taylor, their best player by far, due to his suspension. That's not all – standard defender Hitchen is also out suspended and they have some serious injury doubts (''...The Motormen lost Lee Owens prior to kick-off with an injury and further injuries during the game to Lee Dames and Keith Smith, leaves manager Carl Macauley with a major headache...''). Vauxhall have seven defeats and a lucky 1:0 home win over unmotivated Boston in the last eight matches and their goal-difference in May is 1:15. Anything but a strong home win would be a major shock and those kinds of shocks don't happen every day. Incredible odds that should really be 1.50 max – only a couple of bookies have put out their odds at the moment, but I took this bet at StanJames as soon as yesterday evening. I can't see any other bookie going above 1.73 later on, that would be just stupid...

(1.73 also at BetDirect and Better, 1.61 at Skybet, 1.57 at Stanleybet, Blue Square, Bet365...)

FT 1:1

UNIBOND/RYMAN DOUBLE: Gateshead – Matlock 1 @1.45 & Leyton – Carshaton 2 @1.55 (2.2475 @Bet-at-home) 4 units

Gateshead are currently 3rd (63 points), but their play-off spot is anything but won – 4th Buxton (60), 5th Guiseley (59) and 6th Eastwood (58) are all very close and Gateshead simply have to win matches like these. They're one of the best home teams in the league (11-2-4), they have nine wins, a draw against 6th Eastwood and a defeat to league leaders Witton in the last 11 home matches and they had a great Easter – won 3:0 both at home against 15th Kendal and away at 11th Ossett (''...Well done to Gateshead, a very good footballing side, totally outplayed us…''), both mid-table teams that are in the similar position as Matlock. Their great home form (only Witton conceded less at home) and individual quality should prove to be crucial here. Matlock are the worst away outfit in the Unibond Premier (3-3-11, 19:38), they have five defeats and a goalless draw at second to bottom Leek in the last six away matches, their last away win happened at bottom of the table Lincoln in November and anything but a strong Gateshead win would be a major surprise here. They're doing alright at home (they're currently 12th, can't get into play-offs, can't get relegated), but away from home they're terrible. Why? ''...Perhaps it's just a mental thing but we have quite a few young players in the squad this season and experience does count for a lot away from home...'', said Matlock's manager a few days ago. A couple of players could return for Matlock, but they've been out injured for some time and they're probably not 100% fit. Midfielder Frost got injured badly last Friday so he's definitely out and two back-up players left Matlock to join struggling Lincoln recently. Matlock are playing away at 17th Ashton on Monday and that's a much better chance for a point or three. Gateshead should prove to be a much better team at the moment.

As far as bottom of the table Leyton are concerned, these are the best odds we'll get betting against them from now untill the end of the season, I'm pretty sure about that. You probably know all about them already, they've been relegated a long time ago, their goal-difference in the last 16 matches (15 defeats and a lucky draw) is 9:66 and they lost 0:9 at Hornchurch this Monday. Last season it was Slough, this season it's Leyton. They're an extremely young and unexperienced squad and I can't see them doing much untill the end of this season. Carshalton, on the other hand, are second to bottom, 21st, but they have as much as 24 points more than Leyton and only 4 points less than 18th Folkestone (outside the relegation zone). So yeah, this is the match they have to win if they want to try and stay in the Ryman Premier (and they do want to stay, no doubt about that). They're not very good away from home (5-0-12), but they should have enough against poor Leyton. If we look at their away matches in 2008, we can see a couple of nice results – they did lose five matches, but away at Margate, Harlow, Hornchuch, Chelmsford and Billericay, all very good home teams and, except Harlow, all promotion candidates. But, they also managed to win their away matches at 8th Hendon (5:0), 18th Folkestone (3:0), 7th Tonbridge (3:1) and 5th Ramsgate (2:0) – again, except Folkestone, all promotion candidates. I doubt that Carshalton can beat Leyton as comfortable as Hornchurch (9:0), but I wouldn't be surprised with a 4:0 away win or something like that. Very nice odds for this good looking double...

(2.27 at Stanleybet, 2.17 at Digibet, 2.16 at Gamebookers and PartyBets, 2.13 at Bwin...)

FT 2:0 / 1:4

CONF SOUTH

Basingstoke – Hayes & Yeading OVER 3.5 (2.62 @Blue Square) 4 units

Practically managerless Basingstoke slipped from the play-off zone down to the 15th spot, they haven't won in the last 10 matches and their goal-difference in these 10 matches is 9:31. If we look at their home matches in 2008, we'll see a lot of goals – 3:4 vs Eastleigh, 3:2 vs Bognor, 1:5 vs Fisher, 2:3 vs Havant, 1:1 vs Bromley, 2:2 vs Braintree and, this Monday, 0:4 vs Bath. So yeah, out of seven matches, one produced only two goals and six matches produced between four and seven goals. Okay, they didn't score against Bath, but Bath's defence is the best in the league (Basingstoke did score 12 goals in these 7 home matches though – with all their problems, that's a solid number of goals – Bognor, Havant and Braintree, for instance, have a much better defence than Hayes, and Basingstoke still managed to score two or even three goals in those matches) and Bromley were awful upfront in their 1:1 draw – the pitch was really wet too and Bromley have been an on/off outfit for the whole season anyhow. I wrote a lot about Basingstoke's problems in the last month or so, they lost a manager and now are stuck with a temporary manager who's basically waiting for the proper one to be announced, they had a budget cut, standard players Tardiff (their no1 goalkeeper), Whisken and Warner have been released earlier this month, Laidler and Surey are out injured... Their new goalkeeper conceded 11 goals in his first 4 matches for Basingstoke and I'm sure he'll concede this time too – the question is how many goals.

I just saw all the recent Hayes highlights – their 2:2 draw with Bishop's Stortford last Saturday was a typical Hayes vs Anyone match (Hayes had their usual 20 shots, but we can see a lot of bad defending too) and their 0:2 defeat at improved St Albans was a rare bore, but this was Easter Monday. They could've conceded a lot more than just two goals and had only a couple of shots in the whole match, but St Albans are really doing great lately and I believe they will stay in the league. The pitch was in a very bad shape too. I believe Hayes will have their usual 20 shots in this match and I'm pretty confident they will score at least two or three goals. Scott should be back in the starting eleven – Palmer haven't scored in three matches so I suppose he'll end up on the bench, but when he's fit, Scott is Hayes' best player and he could have a nice comeback here. He started a match only 13 times this season due to injuries, but he scored just as many goals – 13. But, like I said recently, I think Palmer is a very good striker too, maybe just as good, and Ledgister, Knight and Saroya could all score goals too. If we look at Hayes' last seven away matches in 2008, we can once again see a lot of goals – 1:3 at Weston, 4:1 at Cambridge, 2:4 at Fisher, 0:2 at Thurrock, 4:1 at Eastleigh, 1:3 at Eastbourne and 0:2 at St Albans. Those two 0:2 defeats were both poor, boring matches played under bad weather, but that doesn't happen very often to Hayes, that was their only two matches without scoring a goal in the last 18! Before that Monday match at St Albans, Hayes had four matches in a row that produced four goals. Hayes score one and a half goal per match away from home, only the biggest promotion candidates score more, but Hayes also concede a lot – in fact, only Basingstoke conceded more away from home...

(2.62 also at 888sports, 2.69 at Stanleybet, 1.80 for OVER 2.75 at Pinnacle...)

FT 1:1

- 18:05 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

22.03.2008., subota

22.3.2008. +9.27 units

RYMAN DOUBLE: Billericay – Carshalton 1 @1.70 & Leyton – Ramsgate 2 @1.40 (2.38 @Sportingbet) 4 units

Billericay are still struggling away from home (three defeats in a row), but at home it's something completely different – they have five wins and three draws in the last eight home matches and that's not only this current season I'm talking about – they're traditionally great at home. Billericay lost 1:2 at Ramsgate last Saturday, but Ramsgate are still very serious play-off candidates, and those home draws also happened against very tough opponents and in-form teams – Wimbledon, Harrow and Ashford. Billericay are currently 9th, but they have only four points less than 5th Hornchurch and their play-off dreams are very much alive. If they win their four remaining home matches and an away match at Harlow this Monday, I think they'll grab that play-off spot and then, who knows what can happen next. And when their most dangerous scorer Flack returns after a long injury, maybe they even make things a bit more complicated for Wimbledon. All in all, this is a match they have to win and that's why their management duo rested all the first team players for their Essex Thames-side Trophy quarter-final match at Brimsdown Rovers. That they lost of course.

Carshalton are currently 20th, deep down in the relegation zone, but they're not doomed – they have four points less than 14th Harlow for instance. They could be alright, but I doubt they can do something away at Billericay. They have some serious selection problems, they will be without three suspended players – defender Gonsalves, midfielders Watts and Austin, but that's not all. ''...King is making progress as he recovers from a broken leg, and has returned to light training, joining the group sessions for the first time since his operation...Quinton will see a consultant this week and is expected to have a scan on his persistent hip injury...Stevens's torn stomach muscles are improving but he is still some way from full fitness...Plummer broke down in training during the week and is likely to be out for several weeks...''. Evans and Fontana were both unavailable for the last match, they even lost their assistant manager and a physio these days and I think no other Ryman Premier team used so many players this season. Players have been coming and going all the time, they still are, but that's just one of the Billericay's advantages in this match. Away from home, they have three defeats and a shock win at Ramsgate in the last four, but I really think they will have to search for points elsewhere – against Leyton, Wealdstone, Hastings, Ashford, Boreham Wood and Tonbridge, all beatable opponents. Billericay away and Wimbledon at home in the next few days should be two missions impossible for Carshalton at the moment. After all, Carshalton picked up only one point at home against two very beatable opponents, two struggling teams (1:2 Folkestone, 1:1 Heybridge) in March and their away form (5-0-11, 20:34) is nothing to be afraid of.

Ramsgate aren't the best away team in the league (4-5-8), but they're still serious play-off candidates, currently 8th, but with only three points less than 5th Hornchurch. Poor Leyton kids are trying their best lately, but they still have 9:57 goal-difference in the last 15 matches (14 defeats and one lucky draw) and have been relegated a long time ago. Maybe they manage to grab another point or two untill the end of the season, but if they do, that will happened against a team that has nothing to play for. Ramsgate still want that play-off spot, they did have a couple of draws and even defeats in 2008, but now they have two nice wins in a row, away at Heybridge and at home against Billericay, Vahid scored three goals in those two matches and if they take this match seriously (and I'm sure they will), this should be a strong handicap win. They will be without Wilkerson due to his suspension, but they won their last two matches without him so that shouldn't be that big a problem. Leyton are also missing a couple of their youngsters and after losing 1:5 to Staines, I'm afraid another big defeat is waiting for them... ''...With these young players, and a bit more experience, we hope to be challenging next season to get this football club back to where it belongs...'', Leyton's manager said a couple of days ago.

(2.30 at StanJames, BetDirect and Better, 2.29 at Bwin, 2.22 at Gamebookers, 2.20 at Bet365...)

FT 4:2 / 0:3

CONF NORTH

Workington – Vauxhall Motors 1 (1.75 @Sportingbet) 5 units

I suppose it looks like fair odds at first glance, 16th Workington against 21st Vauxhall Motors, both poor teams, Workington with two defeats, win and a draw in March; Vauxhall with three defeats and a win, yeah, fair odds, no value, no bet. Not so much if you ask me. Workington have shown much more in the last month or so, they were very unlucky to lose both to Boston (0:1) and Gainsborough (1:2) at home, but their handicap home win against play-off candidates (2:0) Hyde last Tuesday proved they still have something to play for. Well of course they have – they want to stay in the league and they're still not safe, they still have to win a couple of matches (they have 10 points more than 20th Hinckley down in the relegation zone – Workington played two matches less than both 20th Hinckley and 21st Vauxhall though, Vauxhall have a point less than Hinckley btw).

Last Saturday they had another home match, against 20th Hinckley – it ended 1:1, but Workington were pretty unlucky once again (''...We should have been 4 up at half time we missed one on ones, headers, open goals the lot. Matt Berkeley was one about to go one on one with the keeper when the Hinckley centre half clipped him from behind and the ref waved play on shocking it was a certain red...Hinkley were allowed to just bluster their way through 90mins with little punishment. They resembled a Rugby team for most of the game...Our lads were not given the chance to play football and were forced to contend with the bullying tactics...''), but they were a better team throughout the match and Vauxhall should allow them more football than Hinckley – Workington won their three previous encounters (5:2 at Vauxhall earlier this season, 2:0 at home and 2:1 away last season). I know 6-3-6 at home (21 goal scored, but only 15 goals conceded – only four teams conceded less than them at home) for Workington doesn't look that great, but it looks a lot better than Vauxhall's away form.

And that's 2-2-14 (terrible goal-difference 14:47, the worst away goal-difference in the league by far). Yeah, Vauxhall are that terrible away from home. They managed to beat mid-table, unmotivated Boston last Tuesday (1:0), but that's their only scored goal in the last five matches (goal-difference 1:13 in the four matches in May so far) and Workington will be a lot more motivated than Boston who can't get relegated and can't get into play-offs. But Vauxhall's squad problems are the most important fact here – they will be without three suspended players and one of them is their by far the best player, striker Taylor who has been a target for lots of bigger clubs for quite some time now and he'll probably leave Vauxhall at the end of the season. Without him, Vauxhall are a very modest side and this time, they will also be without experienced defender Maddox (who was also missing last Saturday, when they lost 0:3 at home to mid-table Gainsborough) and midfielder Field who was one of the best Vauxhall's players last Saturday. Along with ever so dangerous Taylor of course.

What else to say about a team that has five defeats and a lucky, boring 1:0 home win over unmotivated Boston (they scored in the 85th minute, Taylor assisted, one of the biggest shock results of the season) in the last six matches? They managed to beat poor Blyth in October and even poorer Hinckley in January, and share points at 8th Burscough back in August and at poor Solihull in February and that's their only four positive results away from home – other than those eight points won away, it's all defeats – 14 of them. So yes, value is here, let's grab it while it's still there...

(1.75 also at Expekt and Betway, 1.73 at Stanleybet, StanJames, Gamebookers, Bet365...)

FT 1:0

- 18:05 - Komentari (1) - Isprintaj - #

21.03.2008., petak

21.3.2008. +4.5 units

UNIBOND PREMIER

Marine – Witton 2 (1.90 @Sportingbet) 5 units

Marine are currently 7th in the Unibond Premier, but they don't much chance for a play-off spot. 5th Buxton have six points more, but they played two matches less than Marine. They're not unbeatable at home (ten wins, seven defeats) and I'm sure their quality pitch will put a smile on Witton's players' faces after playing deep in the mud at Guiseley last Saturday. Marine didn't have a match last Saturday and two weeks ago they managed to win, but their opponents were only 22nd, bottom of the table Lincoln (it was 3:1 for Marine). Before that match (Cumiskey and Farley scored two out of three goals), Marine had three defeats in a row, haven't scored a single goal in those three matches. Like I said, they're really not unbeatable at home – 2nd Fleetwood beat them 1:0 in March, 6th Guiseley beat them 2:0 in February, even 13th Frickley managed to beat them 3:2 in January. 5th Buxton beat them in December so it turns out that out of all teams above them on the league table, at home they only managed to beat Eastwood in January. After this match they still have a home match against Gateshead to play and I'll probably be there to bet against them again – especially if they're going to miss half of the squad like they do know. Yep, Marine will be without no less than five suspended players – their best scorer Cumiskey (22 goals in this season), standard defenders Farley and Potter (Marine's player of the month for February), and midfielders Woolcott and Hussey. And that's not all – captain & standard defender Connelly is definitely out injured, another defender Brazier is very doubtful (50-50 chances) and their second best striker O'Donnell should return, but if he does, he probably won't be 100% fit. Marine's budget is significantly smaller than those of Witton and Fleetwood for instance – '...The problem is made worse by the fact that the budget doesn’t allow us to bring any players in on loan...''. These odds would be fair if Marine were complete – with at least half of the squad missing, these odds have hyper-value.

Witton have been the league leaders and the biggest candidates for the title since the start of the season. Their statistics are amazing, 23-7-3, 71:21, 9-6-3 away from home. They only shared points at Guiseley last Saturday, but you should see the match highlights, all that mud they tried to play on before questioning this bet. In fact, Witton dominated throughout the match and Guiseley scored an equaliser deep into injury time – bit of bad luck for Witton. It was similar at Prescot a couple of weeks ago, when Witton lost 0:1 (''...The poor state of Prescot's pitch left the Witton boss lost for words after seeing his side slip to only their third reverse of the campaign..."It was a joke, fit only for Sunday league", he said...''). Marine, on the other hand, have the best pitch in the league, 'sand-based' and all, and with all those players missing for Marine, Witton should win this match comfortably. Before the draw at Guiseley, Witton won 2:0 at Gateshead – their pitch was in much better shape and Witton had no problem showing that they have the best team in the league. Individual quality of the players should once again prove to be crucial. The race is not over though, Fleetwood have 11 points less, but they played 3 matches less, and that fact can only help us with this bet. Witton have to keep winning if they want a spot in Conference North this season. I can't see Marine winning this with all those players out, suspended and injured. It really would be the shock result of the day... Witton brought in another quality striker recently, Rapley from Barrow, they have no suspension problems, no injuries and it was 3:1 for Witton at their place earlier this season...

(1.95 at Stanleybet, 1.90 also at Coral, 1.85 at Bwin and Bet-at-home, 1.83 at StanJames, Bet365, BetDirect, Better...)

FT 0:2

- 18:30 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

18.03.2008., utorak

18.3.2008. +7 units

CONF SOUTH

Eastbourne – Hayes & Yeading OVER 3.5 (2.75 @Blue Square) 4 units

I'm impressed – Hayes were amazing this Saturday, 4:1 win away at high-flying, big spenders Eastleigh is a magnificent result ('...Eastleigh's performance was as miserable as the weather...''). I wrote a lot about Hayes a couple of days ago, so it's all there really – this Saturday's result showed us that it really is a fact, Hayes can score a lot of goals (even without their best scorer Scott who wasn't even on the bench – well, I've always been saying that Palmer is just as good), but their defence can concede a lot too (this time Eastleigh obviously had a terrible day, but managed to score one in the injury time). Eastbourne have been much more consistent this season than Eastleigh and I expect Hayes to score a bit less goals and concede a bit more goals this time (the weather should be a lot better too). Eastbourne were great this Saturday at struggling, but motivated Sutton, won 5:1, but this bet looks even better if we take a look at Eastbourne's recent results at home. 2008 started with their 0:2 defeat to Lewes who were league leaders at the time (Eastbourne are now league leaders – they have one point more, but they played one match less), but after that Eastbourne managed to beat Dorchester (4:1), Basingstoke (6:0), Bognor Regis (3:0), St Albans (4:0), Eastleigh (3:2), then they had an off day against Cambridge (0:1, but the wind was blowing hard and sometimes nothing helps obviously), but after that they bounced back once more and trashed promotions candidates Fisher 4:0 last Saturday. Atkin and Ramsay are scoring regularly again, they even have a 'goal scoring defender' in Ballard and Hayes defence should concede plenty here. On the other hand, Eastbourne should condede at least one or two – Palmer, Scott, Knight and Ledgister (recent signing from Oxford, scored two goals in the last two matches, both as a sub) should take care of that. I suppose 3:1 or 4:2 is a result that we should see here based on the statistics, but I'd be just as happy with 4:0, 0:4, 2:2 or 5:5. Massive value once again...

(2.69 at Stanleybet for OVER 3.5, 1.76 at Pinnacle for OVER 2.75...)

FT 3:1

- 23:01 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

16.03.2008., nedjelja

15.3.2008. -1.25 unit

CONF SOUTH

Basingstoke – Braintree 2 (2.25 @Bet365) 5 units

What happened at Basingstoke in the last couple of days, you ask? Well, we were there this Saturday to bet against them, won +8 units as they lost 1:4 at struggling St Albans, fans were very clear about wanting manager out before the end of the season and, voila, it happened. Vines (manager) left ('...With a manager who has resigned how could of the outcome been anything but a St Albans win, how can he motivate his players when he doesn't seem to have anything to play for....'), his assistant Richardson has been made temporary manager and Basingstoke finally managed to win a match this Tuesday. It was only a Hampshire Cup semi-final match though, against Fleet Town who are currently fighting for a play-off spot in Southern South & West league (two leagues below Conference South) – Basingstoke were at full strength of course, because this cup is all that's left to play for – in the league they're stuck in the middle of the table, can't get relegated, can't get into play-offs. There are a couple of objective comments on fans' forums – '...Easy win for Basingstoke tonight against a poor Fleet team...BTFC looked good because they were playing poor opposition, even I look good when we play a team from the division below us in the cup on Sunday!...The midfield were not at the races tonight with Warner, Wells and Hamilton out of sorts against some good players in Fleets Number 4 and Number 10...Charles kept going despite not being at his best...'. I appreciate Richardson's efforts, but it takes time to get back on track and at the moment, it's probably best to try out some younger players and start building a squad for next season. Basingstoke are currently 15th, but they have 15 points more than 20th St Albans, so they're safe alright. You already know they lost a couple of players recently, including their no1 goalkeeper, and if we look at their last seven league matches, we can see five defeats (0:6 at Eastbourne, 1:5 at home to Fisher, 2:3 at home to Havant, 0:3 at Cambridge and 1:4 at St Albans) and two draws (2:2 at Hampton, 1:1 at home with Bromley). So yes, in their last three home matches, they have two defeats, to Fisher and Havant, and a draw with an on/off Bromley outfit. Their goalkeeper against Braintree should be young Fejullah who played for reserves untill now.

Braintree have 5-5-6 away from home this season, but that doesn't mean much in these circumstances. They're currently 8th, but they have only two points less than 5th Newport and play-off spot isn't a mission impossible. They were magnificent this Tuesday, they trashed Lewes, league leaders at the time (now they're 2nd because of the goal-difference), 3:0, pressed hard and dominated through the whole match – that was their third win in a row and also a third clean sheet in a row (and also fifth clean sheet at home in a row)! Okay, Weston (4:0) and Sutton (1:0) aren't the best teams in Conf South (they're probably better than Basingstoke at the moment though), but Lewes (3:0) probably are the best team in this league. Okay, those were all home wins, but Braintree did manage to win away at Weston, Welling, Sutton, Maidenhead and Bishop's Stortford this season and at the moment, all those teams are probably better and more motivated than Basingstoke. New signing, striker Jolly who came from Wimbledon, scored twice in the last three matches ('...The best forward we have seen at Cressing road for the past two years...'), just like Quinton – this time it could be Sullivan, their best scorer who only scored once in 2008 and Basingstoke could be the perfect opponent for him to get back on track. Lewes' fans wrote this after their team lost 0:3 at Braintree: '...The (Braintree's) tactics seem to be press, press, press, press. Run your nuts off. Outwork them. Get in their faces. Don't give anyone any time on the ball...'. Well, if nothing else, this shows that Braintree are very determined and motivated at the moment and that should really prove to be crucial in this match. Basingstoke players really have nothing to play for – Braintree, on the other hand, want a play-off spot. They were 3rd last season, failed to promote and spent the majority of this season at the wrong side of the table. Now when play-off spot isn't that far away, they must take their recent great form away from home. They really do have a perfect opponent this time – it would be harder for them to play at St Albans, Sutton or Dorchester, struggling teams that simply have to win if they want to stay in Conf South. Btw, Braintree won all of their recent encounters with Basingstoke (2:1 away and 1:0 at home last season, 2:1 at home this season)...

(2.40 at Stanleybet, 2.20 at Gamebookers, Sportingbet, Blue Square, Betway, Bet-at-home, PartyBets...)

FT 2:2

CONF SOUTH

Eastleigh – Hayes & Yeading OVER 3.5 (2.75 @Blue Square) 5 units

I saw most of the Hayes' match highlights this season and I can tell you, they literally attack all the time. They have great strikers in Palmer, Knight and especially Josh Scott and I've waited a long time for their away match at another attractive, attacking team that has a lot to play for, Eastleigh. I expect at least 10 to 15 shots on Eastleigh's goal from Hayes, but I also expect them (Hayes) to concede a lot. Hayes are currently 14th, they're safe, can't get relegated, can't get into play-offs. They scored more goals than all the other mid-table teams, but their defence isn't as good as the attack – that's why they conceded a lot too. Away from home, only a couple of teams conceded more than Hayes. If we look at Hayes' last 10 league matches, we can see that one match produced only two goals (0:2 defeat at mid-table Thurrock), two matches produced three goals (two home wins – 2:1 vs struggling St Albans in January and 3:0 vs an extreme UNDER team, Bath City, two weeks ago) – all the other matches (seven of them) produced between four and as much as seven goals. Newport outclassed them last Saturday, sure, and I'm pretty confident Eastleigh will take all the points here too, but odds on OVER 3.5 are much, much better than the odds on a home win. You know how much I love value. Well, my odds on OVER 3.5 wouldn' be bigger than 2.10 for this match – massive value indeed. Let's take a look at all the Hayes away matches in the last tow months, shall we? 1:3 defeat at Weston, 4:1 win at Cambridge, 2:4 defeat at Fisher and, finally, 0:2 defeat at mid-table, unmotivated Thurrock who are also a typical UNDER team lately. Eastleigh should score plenty here.

Eastleigh, on the other hand, seem very determined to grab one of the play-off spots this season. They're currently 3rd, they have three wins in a row, they scored 13 goals in the last 4 matches and at home, they have 8-4-4 (30:23). No other play-off candidate conceded more at home. Four out of their last five home matches produced at least four goals – the only exception was a 1:1 draw with struggling St Albans back in January. It was 4:4 vs Bath, 3:1 vs Dorchester, 3:1 vs Welling and 3:2 vs Maidenhead. I really think Hayes have much more dangerous strikers than all these mentioned teams and Eastleigh should concede at least one or two goals here. After all, they will be without two standard players due to their suspensions – striker Brown (who doesn't play much and doesn't score much, so that's not a problem) and defender Byles (who is a regular part of the back four lately, so that is a problem – for Eastleigh). Last Saturday, Eastleigh trashed Maidenhead away from home – it was 5:0 and after being without a goal for a couple of weeks, Eastleigh's best scorer Forbes scored twice. But, he's not the only one who can score – Sales scored three goals in the last two matches, new striker McBean scored three in his first four matches for Eastleigh (he came from Sutton in February) and their star winger Marshall scores from time to time too, just like some other midfielders and even defenders. Another new signing is midfielder Murray who came from Grays, also in February – he also scored a goal last Saturday. But that's not all – there were another two new arrivals at Eastleigh – goalkeeper Matthews and defender Vickers both came from Weymouth ten days ago too. So yes, if you ask me, Eastleigh will definitely grab a play-off spot and they have solid chances for a place in Conference National next season. But first, they have to beat Hayes – they already did that once this season, it was 4:2 for Eastleigh at Hayes in November and I expect a similar result this time too. Of course, I'd be satisfied with four goals too...

(2.69 for OVER 3.5 at Stanleybet, 1.81 for OVER 2.75 at Pinnacle...)

FT 1:4

SOUTHERN PREMIER

Bromsgrove – King's Lynn 2 (1.80 @Sportingbet) 5 units

King's Lynn are currently 2nd, but they're still the biggest candidates for the title. Current league leaders Halesowen played as much as three matches more and have only one point more and 3rd Team Bath, who played 32 matches so far just like King's Lynn have 63 points, just like King's Lynn, but they've been awful lately and they have a much lousier goal-difference than the Linnets. King's Lynn are also one of the best away teams in the league and they're on a great run – haven't lost a league match from January 5th (five wins and five draws). Their last away match was a magnificent 4:0 win at Team Bath two weeks ago and their last home match was an even more magnificent 5:0 win against Yate last Saturday. After King's Lynn brought in two new defenders, Bains from Tamworth and Hoyte from Cambridge, the Linnets conceded only one goal (1:1 at home vs league leaders Halesowen three weeks ago, 4:0 away at Team Bath, 0:0 at home vs Hitchin, 5:0 at home vs Yate). Francis scored five goals in the last five matches and should score at Bromsgrove too. 'The title situation is in our hands now. But we want to stress to the players how important the next two away games are', King's Lynn manager said after trashing Yate. I fully agree with him.

Bromsgrove are currently 14th, but I have a feeling they'll have to fight to stay in Southern Premier – only Rugby and Tiverton played more matches than Bromsgrove. They're not very good at home (5-7-5, 20:22), they've won only once in the last seven matches and have some serious problems with forwards. From the fans' forum: '...Rovers are really right back in the relegation mix now. With matches against Kings Lynn and Bashley coming up we could be in an even worse position within a couple of weeks. With now 2 goals in 7 games it's not difficult to see where the problem is at present...I can`t honestly see us getting anything from Kings Lynn on Saturday...'. Bromsgrove did bring in striker Robinson and attacking midfielder Cowley recently, but both of them left the club last week. '...Just what we want as we approach the most critical part of the season - a team of strangers with most of them not knowing each others style of play...'. They have some injury doubts too, even their physio left them ('... I felt that players weren't getting back quickly enough from injuries. We had a few words and decided we just couldn't work together....', Bromsgrove's manager said yesterday) and their only win in the last seven matches happened against Clevedon (1:0), a mid-table team that has nothing to play for ('...It was an ugly win but at this moment in time we will take that...'). Bromsgrove's last home match was a boring 0:0 draw with another unmotivated mid-table team, Swindon ('...A dour, disappointing game of very few chances for a low crowd of 338 saw a fair result in the end...For the third consecutive match we failed to make much impact upfront...'), and their last away match was a 0:3 defeat at 8th Brackley last Saturday. Cowley was by far the best Bromsgrove's player at Brackley, but now he's gone. Bromsgrove did manage to bring in Solihull Moors's striker McPhee this week, but this guy had a hip operation in October and he's still not 100% fit. As Brosmgrove have no other choice, he will be their first choice striker against King's Lynn. Surprises happen, sure, but I still think this is going to be a strong away win...

(1.80 also at Stanleybet, 1.78 currently at Pinnacle, 1.75 at Bwin, 1.73 at StanJames, Bet365 and Skybet...)

FT 1:1

- 22:30 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

11.03.2008., utorak

11.3.2008. +4.55 units

RYMAN PREMIER

Billericay – Folkestone 1 (1.91 @Coral) 5 units

This match was scheduled for January 12th, but got postponed due to waterlogged pitch – I placed 8 units on a home win then, but this time it's going to be only 5 units for me – no suspensions and no injury worries for Folkestone, midweek match, lots of rain today in England, Folkestone brought in a decent striker in the meantime...). There are a couple interesting matches tomorrow, but the weather is awful (we could see a couple of postponed matches) and midweek matches still often go crazy. I decided to stick with this traditionally very good home team, because my odds on a home win would never be bigger than 1.70.

Billericay had a shocking season, but after the new management team took over, their football finally started to improve and show some results. They were even in the relegation zone for some time a couple of months ago, but after their shocking home defeat to Hornchurch back in December, Billericay started to play some nice football, a couple of new players arrived and with this win, Billericay could be in the play-off zone once again. That should be good enough motivation. After a great run, Billericay started to drop points again lately, but their home matches with Harrow and Ashford (both very nice surprises and play-off candidates), both draws, were played under terrible conditions and Billericay were without a couple of important players who are now back in the team. After this Saturday's 0:1 defeat at 5th Margate (who Billericay could jump over if they manage to beat Folkestone), fans and players know this match is crucial. Billericay are currently 10th, but like I said, they could be 5th after this match, as they have only three points less than 5th Margate who don't have a midweek match this time and have a lousier goal-difference. Billericay have 8-4-4 this season at home, but those defeats happened a long time ago, before the new management team took over. In the last seven home matches, Billericay have four wins and three draws (play-off candidates Harrow and Ashford and title candidates Wimbledon). Billericay haven't scored a goal in the last three matches, but they were missing a couple of important forwards – this time, they should score more than once. Striker Burbridge will be back for this match (he didn't play on Saturday), midfielder Heffer's suspension is served, centre back Blewitt took a knock, but should be okay and captain Dormer is determined to continue playing with his ligament damage – that's why fans think all the best about him.

Folkestone are currently 16th, but they played more matches than teams in the relegation zone – I think they'll be alright and avoid relegation. Folkestone were great away from home at the beginning of the season, but then had a terrible away run, lost nine away matches in a row. They did manage to share points away at Ashford in January, but then lost both away matches in February. This Saturday, they finally grabbed all three points away from home, but only at direct rivals, 19th Carshalton who are one of the worst home teams in the league – it was their first away win since October when they managed to beat poor Leyton who are already relegated. Folkestone now finally have a player who can score, at least from time to time, but I suppose Billericay know all about Blackman – if they keep an eye on him, they will do more than half of the job. Folkestone's experienced midfielder Saunders left the club a couple of days ago – that's good to know – and another midfielder Sly could be out injured after all. Folkestone's fans still think they will lose this match with a handicap and, really, who am I to disagree... Last time when these two teams played a match (at Folkestone, in the FA Cup last qualifying round), the result was 2:0 for the guests from Billericay. I expect a similar result this time too – forget about the current positions on the league table, this is Billericay, a great home team that is dying to get back on track, against modest Folkestone who are always about trying to stay in the league...

(1.83 at StanJames, BetDirect and Better, 1.80 at Stanleybet, Gamebookers, Bet365, Digibet, Paddy Power, PartyBets, Primebet...)

FT 4:1

- 23:04 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

08.03.2008., subota

8.3.2008. +11.4 units

CONF SOUTH

St Albans – Basingstoke 1 (3.50 @Skybet) 4 units & X (3.60 @Skybet) 2 units (ad-hoc draw-no-bet)

Another improvised DNB, but this time with some really huge value. If St Albans manage to win, we'll make +8 units profit and in case of a draw, we'll make +1.2 unit. Once again, bookmakers look at the stats and stats only, I wonder if they know what happened at Basingstoke these days at all. What happened, you ask? Well, their manager finally resigned, but he'll stay at the helm untill the end of the season. Fans aren't happy with that – they want him out now, not at the end of the season. Another couple of board members left too and all non-contract players have been released. That's Whisken, Watkins (two standard players who left before Saturday) and Tardiff (who was the only senior goalkeeper and it's still not known who will be no1 this upcoming Saturday for Basingstoke). No suspensions this time for Basingstoke, but they still have some injury problems, players have no one to impress as Vines (the manager) is leaving, the rumour is that all but a couple of players will leave Basingstoke and go to Farnborough (two leagues below, but no financial and managerial problems), so these odds are from a fairytale really. Basingstoke have four defeats and two draws in the last six, they lost 0:3 at 15th Cambridge this Saturday, away from home they have one win in the last seven matches and that's at Maidenhead who have 1-5-10 at home. Basingstoke are currently 13th, they can't get relegated, they can't get into play-offs, so no motivation really. But, these is Conference South, and that's why I'm improvising this DRAW NO BET – even a draw brings us some profit.

St Albans are currently 20th, down in the relegation zone, but they have the best chance for survival out of three bottom clubs (St Albans have two points more than Dorchester and three points more than Sutton). They managed to win 3:0 away at 18th Weston (who are still fighting for survival, so they're motivated alright) this Saturday and were very unlucky to narrowly lose 1:2 at home both to 8th Bishop's Stortford and 6th Bath City in February. Their 0:0 home draw with 7th Newport (also in February) showed us that they still have some hope and strength left and this 3:0 win at Weston must've showed them that they can do it (stay in the league, I mean). Bishop's Stortford, Bath and Newport are all fighting for a play-off spot – Basingstoke have nothing to fight for. St Albans also brought in their old, experienced goalkeeper Bastock and he managed to keep a clean sheet against Weston, so that's good to know too. Their standard midfielder Thurlbourne will play his last match before going back to his club (he was at St Albans on loan), Quilter is suspended but they did fine without him at Weston and all the fans agree – it's now or never. They have to win this match if they want to stay in Conf South, but it won't be easy. I can see a draw here if St Albans make another stupid mistake or two in defence or something like that, but I just can't see a Basingstoke win. 6 units staked all together though, because nobody knows what can happen untill Saturday, but these odds look to good not to take this bet right now...

(3.05 for home win at Betway, 3.00 at StanJames, 2.84 at 10Bet, 2.80 at Bwin and Bet-at-home, only 2.60 at Stanleybet... 3.60 for a draw at Stanleybet, Skybet and Bet365...)

FT 4:1

CONF SOUTH

Havant & Waterloovile – Bishop's Stortford 1 (1.91 @Coral) 5 units

Once again I'm taking FA Cup heroes Havant to win and get even closer to the play-off zone. They're currently 10th, but they played as much as four matches less than 5th Fisher who only have five points more. Havant are playing incredible lately – they have six wins in the last seven matches and at home they have seven wins in a row (first of that seven was a win over Fisher in mid-November). They're traditionally great at home – this season they're the best home team in the league (11-2-2). Baptiste is finally getting into that last season's form – he scored three goals in the last two matches – but other guys score a lot for Havant too lately. Their goal-difference in the last three matches is 8:1 – impressive. If you ask me, Havant will grab a play-off spot – they want it alright, they brought in a couple of new players (something that they can finally afford after that lucrative FA Cup run), they even started winning away from home. At home, they're favorites even against a lot better teams than Bishop's Stortford.

Bishop's Stortford are currently 8th, they have three points more than Havant at the moment, but they played three matches more. Honestly, I don't think they will grab that play-off spot – they have some very tough matches left and their current form is very poor. They won only once in the last five matches. After they managed to beat two strugglers, 17th Bognor and 21st Dorchester in February, they lost at league leaders Lewes and direct rivals, 7th Newport, only shared points at home with another strugglers, 18th Weston, managed to win away at another strugglers, 20th St Albans and this Tuesday they lost at home to another strugglers, 19th Welling. Not looking good – Havant are a much, much better team than all these poor bottom boys. In the last 8 away matches, they have three wins (but only at 22nd Sutton, 21st Dorchester and 20th St Albans) and five defeats (0:4 at Bath, 1:2 at Braintree, 0:1 at Thurrock, 0:1 at Lewes, 0:1 at Newport) and this time they will miss two standard players, defender Stanbrook and striker Essandoah, due to their suspensions. Another two strikers, Harris and Gaisie, are both struggling with injuries so Bishop's manager had to bring in Yao who was fired at Cheltenham but he was at the bench in both matches after his arrival – I guess he was fired with a reason. Fans are also not very satisfied with their goalkeeper Young lately and some of them think it all went wrong after Midson left the club in January. I suppose they're right. The only player Havant should keep an eye on is Bishops' best striker Pearson, the league's leading scorer, but I suppose Havant know all about him.

It was 4:1 for Bishop's Stortford at their place in January, but that was just after Havant's draw at Swansea in the FA Cup and Havant were without both Pacquette and Baptiste, their best scorers. We were there to bet on Bishop's then and now we're betting on Havant at great odds that shouldn't be bigger than 1.73 if you ask me...

(1.90 at Bet-at-home, Betway and Bwin, 1.88 at 10Bet, 1.83 at StanJames and Bet365, only 1.73 at Stanleybet...)

FT 1:2

RYMAN PREMIER

Hendon – Wimbledon 2 (2.10 @StanJames) 4 units

Hendon are currently 3rd, but that's only because of their incredible start of the season – they were league leaders for quite some time, but even their manager was always very honest when talking about their chances for the title (and automatic promotion to Conf South). Hendon is a small club, their budget is one of the smallest in the league and they have no choice but sell their best players when someone is interested. That's why they had to sell their best striker O'Sullivan to Stevenage in January and that's when all went downhill for Hendon. Starting from New Year's Day, they lost six matches in a row, then managed to share points at home to Margate two weeks ago and then finally won a match, away at Horsham last Saturday – they scored a winner in the 90th minute though so it wasn't an easy win. They have four draws and one defeat in the last five home matches, but Wimbledon are a much better team than all the other teams Hendon played against lately and although this match could end with a draw, I simply have to take this bet – the odds shouldn't be bigger than 1.80 if you ask me. Hendon lost another couple of players lately – Massey returned to Wycombe and Collins returned to MK Dons – they were both loaned to Hendon. Midfielder O'Leary returned to Hendon from Wealdstone, but he's their only 'signing' in months.

Wimbledon are still flying high – yes, they lost away at Heybridge two weeks ago, but that has to happen from time to time. You can't win them all and Heybridge were great in that match (Heybridge's new signing, striker Savage, was fired at Wimbledon earlier in the season so he was motivated alright and scored both goals for Heybridge). But, Wimbledon still have six wins in the last seven matches – after that narrow defeat at Heybridge, they managed to beat Margate and Hastings (4:0 last Saturday). Wimbledon are currently 2nd and although it will be hard to catch the league leaders Chelmsford, it's still possible – Chelmsford are playing against very good Staines outfit this Saturday and they will be without Holmes who is suspended. If they lose and Wimbledon win this match, the Dons will have only 5 points less. Their standard defender Howard played his last home match for Wimbledon last Satuday, but he's still here (he's going to America soon, he got a job as a coach... Well, it's a long story). Wimbledon also brought in very good attacking midfielder Potter from Peterborough – earlier this season he was loaned to Havant and scored at Anfield for the 2:1 lead against mighty Liverpool in the FA Cup, so that really is a great signing for the Dons. He was also the man of the match last Saturday (4:0 win over Hastings). Hatton's suspension is served, Shroot is back from his loan and is playing better and better... Wimbledon's squad is looking very good at the moment and I'm pretty confident we'll see them in Conference South next season.

(2.10 also at Bwin, Bet-at-home and Skybet, 2.00 elsewhere including Stanleybet, 1.97 currently at Pinnacle for (-0.25)...)

FT 0:2

RYMAN/SOUTHERN DOUBLE: Tonbridge – Leyton 1 @1.25 & Cirencester – Halesowen 2 @1.60 (2.00@Sportingbet) 4 units

Tonbridge have been in great form lately – just because of the poor start of the season are they only 12th on the league table (only seven points less than 5th Horsham though). But, Ryman Premier is very tough league this season, any team can really beat any other team – well, except for Leyton obviously. Tonbridge started winning in November (five wins in all competitions and one draw), lost only two matches (both away) in December, and in 2008 they have 4-1-2. At home though, they're still much better than away (lost only three home matches this season – two of those home defeats happened in the first couple of weeks at the start of the season, a long time ago, and the 3rd defeat was to play-off candidates Horsham on Boxing Day, December 26th – the worse day for betting). They have three home wins in a row now – it was 2:0 against serious play-off candidates Ramsgate ten days ago and last Saturday, they took another three points away from home, at Wealdstone (3:1) who don't lack motivation as they're very near the relegation zone. Their best striker Rook (who came in when the club sold Main to Wimbledon – Main got injured very badly though after only a couple of weeks, but that's another story. Btw, the fans are happy nowadays because defender Beales should stay untill the end of the season – he's next to leave Tonbridge obviously) recieved a golden boot for February – he scores regularly for Tonbridge and I'd bet on his hattrick in this match if I could (and if the odds were good, of course). They will be without Watts, but they're playing against Leyton, so that's okay really (even the fans think that isn't a big deal – ''Fraser can easily fill in for Kirk (Watts) on Saturday...''). In fact, if I was their manager, I'd rest some players for the Tuesday match against Heybridge – maybe put them on the bench just in case (Tonbridge fans don't agree with me and that's in fact nice to hear). But, really, Leyton's goal-difference in the 14 matches (13 defeats and a lucky draw) is 8:52. And they're still without two standard players due to their suspensions (and who knows, maybe they have some injury problems too – I have no idea, because they have no fans forum, no news section on their very poor official web-site, nothing), Thomas and Renner. I'm definately taking more than 1.80 for any asian handicap up to (-2) too, just to let you know.

Cirencester are going down – even their chairman admits it now. I felt sorry for Cirencester when I was reading his column a couple of days ago (''...I'm a believer that eventually clubs compete at the level they deserve – and, in our case, that may well be the next step down...Don't get me wrong. I want us to stay up as much as the next man. But can we compete with a club like Corby, who suddenly sign nine players in three weeks?...'') and I'm sad I have to bet against them, but you know, maybe they will be happier in the league below, right? Cirencester are currently 21st, they have three home defeats in a row, they did manage to share points away at Clevedon last Saturday, but Clevedon are a mid-table team who won their last match back in 2007 – they can't get relegated, they can't get to the play-off zone, no motivation left. In February, Cirencester played five matches and lost them all. They will be without midfielder Etheridge and strikers Hunt and Holgate (who scored a late equaliser at Clevedon last Saturday) who are all suspended, but they still have some injury problems too and defender Stanley and midfielder Else both left the club ten days ago. Halesowen are currently 3rd, but no other club played as much matches as them, so they need to keep winning if they want a play-off spot. They lost only three away matches this season (only Team Bath lost less), but they shared points eight times (won five). This time, even a draw would be the shock-result of the day in Southern Premier. They lost at home to mid-table team Banbury last Saturday (Banbury scored the winner in injury time, but the match itself was overshadowed after Banbury's Williams broke Halesowen's striker Paul's leg – 'sickening badly') and I'm sure they'll do their best to make up for those lost points at Cirencester – c'mon guys, do it for Paul. Before Banbury, they managed to share points away at league leaders King's Lynn and before that, they had three handicap home wins in a row (15th Merthyr, 9th Tiverton and 5th Bashley) and a draw at 4th Chippenham. Even without Paul, Halesowen should score at least a couple of goals here and that should be enough for three points of course – they have a bunch of other good strikers (Halesowen scored 11 goals in the last four matches) and their defence simply can't be that bad to concede more than one goal here – not at Cirencester and not after Banbury.

(1.88 at StanJames, 1.86 at Stanleybet, 1.83 at Skybet and Bet365, 1.80 at Bwin and Bet-at-home...)

FT 3:0 / 2:3

- 18:45 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

04.03.2008., utorak

4.3.2008. +8.42 units

CONF SOUTH

Thurrock – Havant & Waterloovile 2 (2.63 @Bet365) 4 units & X (3.60 @StanJames) 2 units (ad-hoc draw-no-bet)

Again I've decided to have an improvised draw-no-bet, this time we'll make +4.52 units if Havant win and +1.20 unit in case of a draw. Pinnacle are currently offering 1.84 for a DNB, but their odds will go down very fast. About the teams – Thurrock have been great at home recently (six wins in a row), but all good runs must end and Havant are better than all the other teams Thurrock managed to beat at home in the last two months. Thurrock have 10-2-3 at home (they lost only to Lewes, Hampton and Maidenhead), but like I said, all runs must end and Havant seem very determined to grab the play-off spot. Thurrock are currently 14th, they're safe alright (20 points more than 20th St Albans), but they don't really have a chance for a play-off spot (10 points less than 5th Fisher). Havant are in a much better position and their motivation should prove crucial here. Thurrock are still missing standard, but not very disciplined central defender Swaine who is still serving his mega-suspension.

Havant are really flying high at the moment – they're currently 10th, but they played three matches less than 5th Fisher who have only 5 points more. Havant have five wins in the last six matches and their two recent away wins in five days showed that they really want a play-off spot. They're much better at home, but after beating 2nd Eastbourne 2:1, I'm sure they'll do their best to grab another 3 points – this time on the road. Last season, it was 1:1 at Thurrock. Season before that, 2:0 for Havant, and this season, it was 3:0 for Havant at their place in September. All in all, Havant have a much better team, they have much, much better chances for a play-off spot and they just brought in another two very good players – striker McCallum has joined from Weymouth, while right-back Watson has arrived from the Crawley. A draw could happen here, but I can't see Thurrock taking all the points...

(Away win is 2.50 at Stanleybet and Blue Square, 2.44 at 10Bet, 2.40 at Bet-at-home, Betsafe, Bwin, Digibet, Sportingbet, Primebet... 3.60 for a draw available at StanJames, Stanleybet and Skybet... 1.84 for DRAW NO BET at Pinnacle currently...)

FT 0:2

CONF NORTH

Barrow – Boston 1 (2.30 @Betway) 3 units

I wrote a lot about Barrow recently, they've been doing great since the arrival of the new management team a couple of months ago, they have five wins and only one defeat in the last seven home matches and this Saturday's 2:1 away win at Leigh RMI was much easier than the score suggests. Their attacking winger Henney is on fire currently (scored two in the last two matches, but he also scored what could've been a winner against mighty leaders Kettering, before the match was abandoned). Barrow are currently 13th, but all the teams that are above them on the league table played from two to as much as four matches more. Yes, Barrow still have a chance for promotion, even their management team admitted they will fight for that play-off spot.

Boston are currently 10th, but they played two matches more than Barrow and have only four points more. They're one of the worse away teams in the league (4-3-8) – they have two defeats and a win at struggling Workington in the last three away matches. This Saturday, they lost 0:1 at home to Harrogate. What do the fans think? Well, they're not too optimistic – ''too many injuries and nothing to play for''. Defender Ellender is suspended, striker Araba is again set to miss out through injury, joint top goalscorer Jon Froggatt is back in light training and maybe could play some part against Barrow but he's definitely not 100% fit, just like defender Crane and midfielder Nicholls who were on the bench on Saturday. What does Boston's manager think? ''It’s a ridiculously long journey for midweek, but we will prepare properly and hopefully return with a good result''. It probably won't be an easy home win, but Barrow have much more chance here than the odds suggest.

(2.25 at Stanleybet, Skybet and Primebet, 2.20 at StanJames, Sportingbet, Bet365, Paddy Power, Digibet... 1.94 for (-0.25) currently at Pinnacle...)

FT 1:0

- 23:14 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

02.03.2008., nedjelja

1.3.2008. +6.71 units

RYMAN PREMIER

Leyton – Heybridge 2 (1.73 @StanJames) 7 units

Bottom of the table Leyton did manage to shock us all at the beginning of February, when they shared points at home with Staines (2:2 after Staines being 2:0 up), but after that they lost again, at home to Billericay (0:2), and their boss admitted that Leyton are simply not good enough to compete at this level of football. ''...We're looking forward to next season with these lads. With a couple of new players in the right positions, we should have a good chance of bouncing back...'', he said a couple of weeks ago. Nothing changed in the meantime, Leyton are still a very young and unexperienced squad, they lost 0:5 away at Wimbledon two weeks ago and out-of-form Hendon managed to beat them again this Tuesday (some unimportant cup match, nevermind that). Leyton's last league win happened in November and their goal-difference in the last 13 matches (12 defeats and a draw against Staines) is 8:49. What else to say? Leyton are 22nd, bottom of the table, they picked up only 16 points in 32 matches (21st East Thurrock have 33 points) and at home they have 2-3-11 (17:43), but those wins happened a long time ago, before all the best players and especially their best scorer Bricknell left the club. This time they will also be without two standard players, Thomas and Renner, who are both suspended.

Heybridge are one of the worse away teams in the league (2-5-8), but that doesn't mean much when you're travelling to Leyton. In fact, Heybridge need all the points they can get – they're currently 13th, but they're still not safe from relegation (they have only four points more than 19th Carshalton in the relegation zone). On the other hand, they have only 9 points less than 5th Hornchurch (who played a match more) in the play-off zone so it's really up to them. This is a very tight league this season, but Leyton don't belong there. Heybridge were great against title chasing 2nd Wimbledon last Saturday (unfortunately for us), won 2:1 and striker Savage (who was fired at Wimbledon earlier this season) who scored both goals proves out to be a great signing – the fans are thrilled and I must admit I underestimated Savage. This Tuesday, Heybridge pulled another shocker – they won 2:1 at 4th Horsham who are traditionally great at home. Savage scored another goal (his 4th in three matches) – in fact, I just saw both Heybridge's goals and if they take this match seriously, Savage should score his first hat-trick for Heybridge, but he's not the only guy who could score – Heybridge have some other good players too and they have no suspension problems this time. If Heybridge don't underestimate their poor opponents, we should a see a comfortable away win. If you ask me, odds shouldn't be bigger than 1.50 here – massive value.

(1.73 also at Bet365, 1.70 at Stanleybet, Sportingbet, Bet-at-home, Bwin, Tipico, Digibet...)

FT 0:3

CONF SOUTH

Havant & Waterloovile – Eastbourne 1 (2.70 @Betway) 4 units & X (3.60 @StanJames) 2 units (ad-hoc draw-no-bet)

You probably know everything about FA Cup heroes from Havant & Waterloovile by now. They're currently 10th in Conference South, but they have only seven points less and they played three matches less than 5th Eastleigh (in the play-off zone). What's most important, they are traditionally great at home and they are in great overall form – they have four wins in the last five matches (two wins away from home in a row isn't something Havant manage to do very often – they have been one of the worse away teams up untill now, but at home they're very, very hard to beat) and they also have six home wins in a row (Fisher, Eastleigh, Bognor, St Albans, Cambridge and, finally, Dorchester). They conceded only 9 goals in 14 home matches this season (scored 24, at home they have 10-2-2) and, this is a quote from Eastbourne's fans' forum, ''from the 03/04 season onwards, Eastbourne have done nothing but lose when playing at Havant's ground''. It was 1:0 for Havant in 03/04 and 05/06 seasons and 2:1 for Havant in 04/05 and 06/07 seasons. It was 2:2 at Eastbourne earlier this season – that was the 3rd draw in a row for these two outfits when playing at Eastbourne. Last Saturday, Havant lost 0:1 away at in-form Braintree, but they were absolutely dominant in the 1st half and deserved at least a point. But, this is a home match – Havant are a lot better infront of their fans.

Almost everybody thinks that Lewes are the best outfit this season in Conference South by far. But, Eastbourne have always been up there this season, they were even league leaders untill Sunday, but now Lewes have one point more again – they won 3:1 at Newport and Eastbourne lost 0:1 at home to Cambridge last weekend. Eastbourne are the second best away team in the league (9-4-1, 30:13), but Havant are a lot better team (especially at home) than Dorchester (2-4-10 at home) and Maidenhead (1-5-10 at home), two outfits (and two terrible home teams) that Eastbourne managed to beat away from home in 2008. Eastbourne lost their first away match this season at 7th Bishop' Stortford in February. After that, they managed to beat Dorchester away and another pair of relegation candidates, Bognor and St Albans, at home. Their 3:2 home win over 5th Eastleigh sounds nice, but after being 0:3 down, Eastleigh almost snatched a point in the end – Havant's defence is much better, especially at home. Last Saturday, Eastbourne lost their 2nd home match this season – it was 1:0 for 15th Cambridge. I can see Eastbourne winning almost all of their remaining matches in Conf South, but I can't see them winning at Havant this Saturday. I decided to stake 4 units on a home win and 2 units on a draw – that means I'll make +4.8 units profit in case of a Havant win and +1.2 unit profit in case of a draw.

(Odds for a home win are 2.63 at Skybet, 2.60 at Tipico, 2.56 at 10Bet, 2.55 at Bwin and Primebet, 2.50 at Blue Square and Bet365, only 2.20 at Stanleybet... StanJames, BetDirect, Better and Stanleybet both offer 3.60 for a draw, but you can find 3.50 almost anywhere...)

FT 2:1

CONF NORTH

Leigh RMI – Barrow 2 (2.20 @Skybet) 4 units

Leigh RMI are bottom of the table in Conference North, they're 22nd, but they have as much as six points less (and they played a match more) than 20th Hinckley (still relegation zone). So yes, they seem pretty doomed. They have four defeats and a draw (away at play-off candidates Hyde who were at the bottom of the form table at the time) in their last five matches and they're the worst home team in the league too (3-3-9, 17:32). They also have four defeats and a win over 21st Vauxhall in their last five home matches and this Tuesday they lost 2:5 away at 8th Burscough. They usually lose with a handicap, but I'd be satisfied with a narrow away win. Leigh RMI will be without their standard defender Evans due to suspension, but they have some injury doubts too. This is what their fans wrote on the forum: ''...Lost 5-2... Looking at the team sheet I bet they spent half the game introducing themselves to each other... What a way to run a club... We have players nobody wants, some have not played for months, and we would struggle in Unibond 1st... The defence just does not know the first thing about defending...''.

Barrow are currently 11th, but they still want a play-off spot. In fact, they would be in play-off zone now if they had played for the whole season the way they're playing in the last couple of months. Since they fired their manager earlier this season and appointed Sheridan & Bayliss, Barrow finally started playing some football. They have only two defeats (away at 8th Burscough and at home to 5th Stalybridge) in the last 16 league matches – they managed to beat some very good teams, they even had a 1:0 lead against league leaders Kettering before the match was abonded in 55th minute (couple of weeks ago). They only managed to share points (1:1) with 16th Blyth last Saturday, but it was one of those days I guess (strong wind screwed up a lot of matches last Saturday - unfortunately). After all, they managed to beat the very same Blyth 3:2 away from home in January. Away from home, Barrow have 3-8-4, but that's because they had to wait for their first away win untill Boxing Day (December 26th). Late November and December were months when everything started to change (for better) at Barrow and now they have two wins (at 16th Blyth and 20th Hinckley) and two draws (at 3rd Harrogate and 14th Alfreton) in their last four away matches. They could have another new striker untill Saturday, but their team is very well put together lately. Very nice odds – mine would be 1.80 max.

(2.25 at Stanleybet, 2.10 at Sportingbet and Bet365, 2.05 at Betway and Tipico, 2.00 elsewhere...)

FT 1:2

CONF SOUTH

Fisher – Dorchester OVER 3.5 (2.75 @Blue Square) 4 units

Fisher are currently 6th, just outside the play-off zone, but 4th Bath has the same 52 points, just like Fisher, so the play-off spot is up for the taking. At home, Fisher have 7-2-7 (27 goals scored and as much as 30 goals conceded – only St Albans conceded more at home), but lately they usually win (four wins in the last five home matches), score and concede a lot at home. It was 3:2 against Welling, only 2:0 against one typical UNDER team, Braintree, 4:2 against Sutton, 1:4 against Eastleigh and 4:2 against Hayes. Now, all these teams (except maybe Sutton who are also down there) are much better than Dorchester and yet managed to score a couple of goals each. I wouldn't be surprised with that Sutton's result here too – 4:2. I already quoted Fisher's manager before, he's a guy who wants to see his players attacking, playing football that is nice to watch – sometimes it means they won't play smart, go back and defend themselves, but they're a great team to bet on. Last Saturday, I really hoped Fisher can take their home performances on the road and score and concede a bit more. It was 'only' 2:0 for them at 3rd Hampton (not the best weather, lots of wind all over non-league fields) – incredible result btw. But, at home, they score more (Batt, Goulding, Tomlin, Thomas and McCollin all scored a bunch of goals lately), they attack more, they concede more and now they're playing against another struggling team that has nothing to lose.

Dorchester are currently 20th, down in the relegation zone. They have 6 defeats and 3 draws in the last 9 matches and they're the worse away team in the league (2-4-9, 17:29). But let's take a look at all the Dorchester matches in the last two months, all right? Out of 12 matches, only 3 matches didn't produce at least 4 goals. Dorchester only lost 0:1 at Bath City, but it was on a New Year's Day (January 1st) and Bath City are an extreme UNDER team – most of their matches produce between none and two goals. In January, they only lost 0:3 at home to fellow strugglers St Albans and in February they've played against another strugglers Sutton who are lately going for a 0:0 draw in every match. This time, they did it and two doomed strugglers shared points in a boring 0:0 draw. But every other match, nine (9) of them, produced 4 or more goals. The 0:4 defeat at Havant on Monday (Havant had 17 shots on goal btw) was a true all time low for Dorchester – not just because of the result, but also because of the fans who started to insult their chairman (singing 'they hope Mitchell dies in a car crash' – Jesus...), their manager who took it out on the fans after the match (telling them to 'go and support Weymouth (because) they have a proper club there') and, of course, players who were absolutely horrible (''...they had 4 players treated for head injuries and on each occasion the injuries resulted from 2 of their players going for the same ball and they also had a player pick up his second booking for re-entering the field after an injury without the referees permission....''). In other words: Dorchester's last five away matches produced four or even five goals, but with all these unsolved issues at Dorchester (let's not forget a couple of injured or suspended players – it will be tough without defender Browne and midfielder Docker), we could even see a lot more. Dorchester's players will probably just go out there and do their best – if they concede, they'll try to attack a bit more and finally score. Fisher's defence really could let one or two goals in (they too will miss one suspended player, standard defender Plumain), but Dorchester's defence should concede plenty.

(2.57 for OVER 3.5 at Stanleybet, 1.83 for OVER 2.75 at Pinnacle...)

FT 1:1

UNIBOND PREMIER

Gateshead – Eastwood 1 (1.80 @Bwin) 4 units

These are much too high odds and they're like that probably because of the current position on the table of these two teams. Gateshead are 3rd and Eastwood are 4th, but Gateshead and all the other teams from the play-off zone (2nd to 5th) played as much as four matches more than Eastwood. Eastwood aren't the best away team in the league (5-3-7) – it was 1:0 for Matlock last Saturday and now when I look at their results, I can see that they lost away at all promotion and play-off candidates (Witton, Guiseley, Marine) except at Fleetwood – that one was a 1:1 draw (and Eastwood scored a lucky goal directly from the corner). This Tuesday, Eastwood won at home, against 15th North Ferriby, but their fans are not impressed with the teams' performance and especially manager's tactics – au contraire.

Gateshead, on the other hand, are really flying high, they have 9 wins in the last 10 matches (in all competitions), seven home wins in a row, they brought in another couple of quality players on loan, some players returned after being out injured, and at home, they're great, 9-1-3, 27:13. Their only draw in the last 10 matches was an away draw (2:2) at league leaders Witton. In the last 30 days, they managed to beat 2nd Fleetwood twice – both home and away (it was 2:0 for Gateshead at home last Saturday, a great performance apparently – or 'complete domination', according to their fans), beat league leaders Witton away from home in the league cup and take a point there in the league (two weeks ago). If you ask me, I think they will probably be 2nd at the end of the season and, yes, they have a great chance for a place in the Conference North next season. It was 3:1 for Gateshead at Eastwood, back in August.

(1.80 also at Bet365, 1.75 at Bet-at-home and Sportingbet, 1.73 at StanJames, Gamebookers, Skybet and Paddy Power, only 1.70 at Stanleybet...)

FT 1:1

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