RYMAN PREMIER
Billericay Hornchurch 1 (2.30 @Bwin) 5 units
First of all, Hornchurch aren't very good away from home (2-4-4). They were some kind of play-off candidates in all the pre-season talk, but didn't impress and they'll probably end this season somewhere mid-table. They're doing fine lately, they managed to win twice (one was a league cup win over never-heard Tilbury though) after four defeats in a row, but then they lost again at Margate, won at home vs relegation candidates Folkestone and shared points at Ramsgate. They're currently 8th, they're safe and they have a nice look at the play-off zone, but they don't desperately need this win like Billericay do (to get far away from relegation zone, as soon as possible).
Billericay are traditionally strong at home. This season, they lost three home matches already (Boreham Wood in September, East Thurrock in October and Margate in November all of these teams are old rivals and play-off candidates that have been in this league longer than Hornchurch), won four comfortably though, and it's payback time now. The Margate match (0:1 defeat at home) was probably an all-time low (their now ex-manager got fired after that match). Billericay, always a play-off candidate, suddenly found themselves deep in the relegation zone, although this is a very balanced league Tonbridge who are 19th, in the relegation zone, have only seven points less than 5th Margate who are in the play-off zone.
After Margate, Billericay haven't lost a single match (and they were playing without a lot of injured players some of them are now back in the team). They won their only home match it was 2:0 against another old rivals, 3rd Ramsgate and shared points at improved Wealdstone, title candidates Hendon and angry Tonbridge (who lost their leading scorer Main to Wimbledon, but brought in the best scorer from FA Cup heroes Horsham just before the match). If this was an away match, I'd probably ignore it but at these odds, I'm taking it.
Billericay and Hornchurch already played a league match this season it was 2:0 for Billericay at Hornchurch.
(2.30 also at Bet365 and Digibet, 2.25 at Gamebookers, Sportingbet and Bet-at-home, 2.20 at Stanleybet, 1.88 for (-0.25) at Pinnacle...)
FT 0:2
SOUTHERN PREMIER
AD-HOC DRAW-NO-BET: Swindon Chippenham 1 (2.90 @Bwin) 4.5 units & X (3.55 @Digibet) 1.5 unit
Incredible odds. Chippenham are currently 3rd and they have only three league defeats so far this season, but they have some problems with injuries and suspensions. 1-2-2 in the last five matches (in all competitions) isn't something to be afraid of. Last Saturday they were even losing at home to Banbury (and they are relegation candidates really, but currently on a safe spot, so Banbury's motivation really couldn't have been that big) at half time, managed to take a lead after an equaliser, but shortly after that conceded and the match ended 2:2. Like I said, they'll miss a couple of standard players and the most important one is probably captain and midfielder Badman. His place in the midfield will be taken by Harvey and it's going to be his first match after being out for more than two months (''... It's a chance for me to come in and make my claim and hopefully I can get a run in the side. The foot is still not right but it's more manageable now. Before I could hardly walk...''). Metitiri, Seavill, Allison and Gullick were all injured a few days ago and if some of them will play (two of them are most definately out), they're probably not going to be 100% fit after being out for some time. Reid is also suspended for this match, so they could really be without half of their first team.
Swindon had a bad start of the season, but they improved very much lately and their last home defeat happened at the end of September. If we look at their last three home matches, it's 2-1-0. After the defeat at Chippenham, they trashed Merthyr Tydfil 5:1 in the Errea Cup, shared points away at play-off candidates Yate Town, won 4:3 at home vs Banbury without six key players (who got sent off in the Chippenham match) and, finally, won 2:0 away at Corby two days ago (still without a couple of suspended players). They'll be without Copp who is suspended, but everybody else (including experienced midfielder Horgan who joined them recently) is available. They finally have scorers that actually score (another recent signing Kear scored five goals in last three matches) and I think they have the best possible chance for a win in a local derby here, with all those players out for Chippenham. It was 3:1 for Chippenham on their pitch a month ago, but Swindon finished the match with only eight players (three red cards for them, one for Chippenham) and it was 1:1 untill 80th minute. I don't think Swindon will allow themselves two defeats to local rivals in less than a month. Anyway, I just can't imagine Chippenham winning this match. They'll remain on the 3rd spot even if they lose and I think they probably will. The odds should be other way around here.
If the match ends with a draw, we lose only -0.49 units and if Swindon wins, we win +7.05 units. A very nice improvized DRAW-NO-BET, if I can say.
(Home win is 2.88 at Skybet, 2.80 at Bet365 and Bet-at-home, only 2.45 at Stanleybet... Primebet also offers 3.55 for a draw and you can find 3.50 anywhere... Pinnacle offers 1.86 for (+0.25) sounds great...)
FT 0:2
CONFERENCE NORTH
Worcester Boston 1 (2.20 @StanJames) 4 units
Boston are one of the worst away outfits in Conference North but that's not the only reason for taking this bet these odds should be 2.00 max and I wouldn't be surprised with a handicap home win here.
Worcester have a new management team that also brought in a couple of new players, they finally managed to put a couple of good results together (1:1 at home to improved Barrow, 3:2 win away at Solihull Moor) and they look very good infront of their fans at home, they only lost to the best teams in the league (Hyde and Kettering back in August and a month ago to Nuneaton, when Worcester hit the all-time low).
Boston are truly terrible away from home (1-3-5), their only away win was at poor Solihull Moor two months ago, they have one win, one draw and six defeats in the last eight matches, four defeats in a row, they're out of all Cup competitions and now they will miss a couple of important players too. Their last two away matches were a 0:3 defeat at mid-table Stalybridge and a 1:2 defeat at out-of-form Gateshead from the league below in the FA Trophy.
Boston will be without suspended defender Crane and striker Rowan (plus injured trio Talbot, Galbraith and Crockett), but Worcester will also have to do without suspended defender Smith. Goalkeeper Aspden who came on loan from Hull will make his debut for Boston in the absence of injured no1 keeper Crockett. It was 2:2 away at Boston earlier this season this time, the home team should nail it.
(2.22 currenlty at Betfair, 2.20 also at Stanleybet, Blue Square and Coral, 2.15 at Gamebookers, Bwin, Bet-at-home, Nordicbet... 2.00 for (-0.25) at Pinnacle, 1.99 at 10Bet...)
FT 2:1
RYMAN PREMIER
Boreham Wood Chelmsford 2 (2.20 @Sportingbet) 4 units
2.20 for a Chelmsford win? Let's see, they want to get back on track after a home draw with angry Tonbridge Angels under horrible weather, they have the best team in the league and they have already beat Boreham Wood (who are totally out of form) twice this season. Before Tonbridge, Chelmsford won at Wimbledon and that only proved that, at this moment, they're practically the only title candidates. I can't see Hendon being a serious threat at the end of the season, Ramsgate will also have to be satisfied with a play-off spot, Staines and Horsham played a lot less matches then the rest and when they start playing every couple of days, they will pick up more injuries and lose some matches they shouldn't lose. Margate are too much of an on/off outfit at this moment and Wibledon have 14 points less than the league leaders from Chelmsford. Boreham Wood lost with a handicap two times in a row and their home form is getting worse and worse as the season unfolds. Chelmsford will be without Berquez due to suspension and a couple of injured or not completely fit players, but they have a lot bigger squad than Boreham Wood who will miss Gregson. 2.00 max in my eyes.
(2.11 currently at Pinnacle, 2.10 at Skybet, 2.05 at Gamebookers and PartyBets, only 1.80 at Stanleybet...)
FT 4:2
RYMAN PREMIER
Folkestone Horsham 2 (2.20 @Sportingbet) 4 units
History shows that non-league teams who finally end their great FA Cup run (and Horsham's run was amazing they lost striker Rook this week but they still have Farrell, a great striker who was born deaf btw and who scored two great goals at Swansea before the mighty League One high-flyers beat them 6:2) win their next league match in most cases. It's not that I'm a sucker for little statistic gems like that, but this is a perfect opportunity for Horsham to quickly bounce back and continue their slow trip towards the play-off zone (they played five matches less than Folkestone and seven matches less than 6th Boreham Wood, who they could jump over after this match day). Horsham played only two league matches in the last two months and I think they'll win this. Probably with a handicap, but no one wants to offer us one. Folkestone are the worst home team in the league by far, they won only one out of eight. Their last home match ended 0:4 for the visitors from Hendon, they have six defeats in a row (in all competitions), they're out of sorts really and I think Horsham will have too much for them. Folkestone will earn a point someday in the next few weeks, but I don't it's going to be in this match. Chasing the value here, fair odds would be 1.80 max.
(2.20 also at Stanleybet and Skybet, 2.10 at Gamebookers, Bet-at-home, Digibets, PartyBets... Pinnacle offers 1.93 for (-0.25)...)
FT 4:1
RYMAN PREMIER
Harrow Staines 2 (2.20 @Gamebookers) 4 units
Staines continue to do well in the league after having a great FA Cup run last Saturday, it was 4:2 for them at home vs Boreham Wood and Nwokeji was great again, scored a hat-trick. Staines are great away from home and should have too much for Harrow who managed to control themselves a bit more after a terrible 2:6 home defeat to Harlow less than a month ago. They lost at Horsham after that, but managed to win (by one goal) at home vs Hastings and Tonbridge, and then share points at East Thurrock. I like this aspect of the bet they're doing fine, feeling comfortable on the 9th spot of the table, one defeat after a couple of good results is still nothing to be ashamed about, after all Staines are a great outfit this season, right? I'm taking that pattern for granted here, but at these odds, I'm glad I'm doing it. Staines have only three points more than Harrow but they played six (!) matches less and if they win this, they'll be 3rd, with 9, 10 or 12 points less than league leaders Chelmsford, but with five matches less played. I think they want to let everybody know they're capable of doing big things in the league too. I saw them playing versus much tougher opponents and they always looked great so another couple of units staked here.
(2.20 also at Sportingbet, Skybet, Bet-at-home, PartyBets, 2.10 at Stanleybet... Pinnacle offers 1.78 for DRAW NO BET or (0) sounds good...)
FT 1:3
CONFERENCE NORTH
Gainsborough Barrow 2 /DRAW NO BET (2.06 @10Bet) 4 units
Barrow are the in-form team right now and I think we should see their first away win this season. They've been playing great for the last month and a half Bournemouth barely managed to beat them in extra-time, in the FA Cup replay, and in the league, Barrow trashed promotions candidates Telford 4:0 and Burscough 4:1. They should've taken all three points at Worcester two weeks ago, but the match ended 1:1 (new manager syndrome, Worcester managed to battle out a point). They have a couple of new players, Rogan scored four goals in the last three matches and the new management team is obviously doing a good job there. Gainsborough lost their manager last week. They had a relatively nice FA Cup run, but do you wanna know when did they win their last league match? It was three (!) months (!) ago, in the match against relegation candidates Redditch. Very nice odds for a DRAW NO BET...
(Pinnacle offers 2.07, but you can also improvize the DRAW NO BET yourself Stanleybet offers 2.60, Bwin offers 2.55 and other bookies offer 2.50 for Barrow to win and StanJames offers 3.60 for a draw ...)
FT 1:1
CONFERENCE SOUTH
Fisher Havant 2 (2.50 @Expekt) 3 units
Fisher haven't scored for four matches in a row. They already played vs Havant, at their place, a month ago and lost 0:1 but the next result was far worse they lost 0:4 at home to Eastbourne. If we look at their wins this season, we can see that they managed to beat only the poorest outfits in the league, all relegation candidates. Even their draws happened against relegation candidates only. And even that was all long time ago.
Fisher will be without midfielder and captain Hickie and defender Dayes, both due to suspension. They did bring in two new defenders, one was a reserve at Bishop's Stortford and one came from Ryman Premier (league below) strugglers Tonbridge (fee is rumoured to be around seven thousand pounds bloody hell, is it a club record?), he is already the oldest player and he's only 25. The majority of Fisher squad this season played for Dulwich (two leagues below) last season this young outfit had a great start of the season, but now they finally cracked and have 0-2-5 in the league lately (their last win happened two and a half months ago). They're currently 15th so it's still not that nervous fight for life like it would've been if they were 20th. That's good I'm sure they will manage to grab a point or three in the next period, but at these odds, I'm prepared to bet on the fact that it won't happen yet.
Why? Because Havant are simply too good for them and they have to win matches like these (vs outfits that are traditionally bad when playing against play-off candidates). Their recent league form is not ideal and that's also good for this bet I think their motivation will be huge. The only thing that doesn't click in is the Havant's away form it's not that good in the league although they did beat York City and Notts County (!) at their places in the FA Cup. But, like I said, Havant must start climbing up the league table and that should prove crucial. Havant's new midfielder Hart who came on loan from League One outfit Brighton will finally have his debut.
(2.50 also at Blue Square and Sportingbet, 2.40 at Stanleybet, Gamebookers, Betway, Bwin, PartyBets.. Pinnacle offers 1.77, Betway offers 1.70 and 10Bet offers 1.67 for a DRAW NO BET...)
FT 4:2
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