skeeve picks (and wins!)

26.01.2008., subota

26.1.2008. +15.74 units

FA CUP

Liverpool – Havant & Waterloovile OVER 3.5 (1.60 @Gamebookers) 8 units

We should see plenty of goals in this bizarre FA Cup fixture regardless of the Liverpool team for this match. I'll be cheering for Havant of course, but after all the surprises they did in the FA Cup this season, I really doubt they can pull off another shock and lose by only two or three goals (that would be the biggest success in their history by far). Liverpool should score at least five or six here, but we could see a lot more. Havant will be without their very important defenders Poate and Gregory, and also midfielder Hart, due to suspensions, but does it even matter who will play for Havant? It's Liverpool, one of the biggest clubs in the world! They trashed Luton 5:0 in the last round of the FA Cup and Havant are much, much less professional team than Luton. Havant play in Conference South – that's the 6th league. Do I really have to write about Liverpool? It's Liverpool! OVER 3.5? I'd bet on OVER 6.5 at least for a unit or two...

(1.60 also at Victor Chandler and PartyBets, 1.57 at StanJames and BetDirect, 1.55 at Bet365 and Canbet... OVER 3.75 is 1.70 at Pinnacle and 1.68 at 10Bet...)

FT 5:2

CONF SOUTH

Eastbourne – Basingstoke 1 (1.73 @StanJames) 6 units

Eastbourne are great at home – not just lately, but all season. They have 6-4-1, they conceded only 7 goals in 11 matches – they lost only to league leaders Lewes, but that was less than a month after an incredible 7:2 win against the very same Lewes in Setanta Shield Cup and only a couple of days after a league draw (2:2) away at Lewes. The very important thing are the opponents they only managed to share points with at home – Bishop's Stortford, Havant, Newport and Hampton, all very strong teams and promotion candidates. They managed to beat 17th Maidenhead, 11th Braintree, 19th Welling, 22nd Sutton, 13th Thurrock and 20th Dorchester. They played more matches away from home and they are the only still unbeatable team (8-4-0 away). They're currently second, but they played two matches less and have exactly six points less than leaders Lewes. I saw a couple of their match highlights this season and they always looked very dangerous going forward, creating a bunch of chances, but also very solid and disciplined in the defence. They have no suspension problems this time, Smart and Ramsay are back in the team after being out injured for quite some time and their best scorer Atkin is in fine form – he scored three goals in last five matches. Budd scored two goals in last two matches too. This should be their third win in a row, after beating Maidenhead 2:1 away and trashing Dorchester 4:1 at home this Tuesday (they scored four goals AND hit the post twice).

Basinsgtoke are currently 5th, but I'd love to bet on them not to finish in the play-off zone at the end of the season (if I could). They collected their points against strugglers and mid-table teams and, this season in Conference South, that's obviously enough for being in the play-off zone at the end of January. You should know though that they played the most matches in the league (Newport and Havant, for example, played as many as five matches less than Basingstoke). Away from home, Basingstoke are nothing to be afraid of. They have 4-5-5 (goal-difference 15:22) and they lost at all the serious promotion candidates (Fisher, Newport, Bromley, Lewes). In fact, their only away shock-result was a 1:0 win an Bath City – unfortunately, we were there to bet on Bath City and that away win was a shock result of the week. After two wins against strugglers (3:2 at home vs 18th Bognor, 2:1 away at 17th Maidenhead), they're probably quite relaxed and satisfied with their recent results and table position. They will be without two standard players due to suspensions – big and strong defender Whisken and very important midfielder Surey who played in 24 out of last 25 league matches – and captain & central midfielder Laidler is out injured. Very nice odds.

(1.73 also at Stanleybet and Blue Square, 1.70 at Sportingbet, Betway and Bet-at-home...)

FT 6:0

CONF SOUTH/RYMAN DOUBLE: Welling – Lewes 2 @1.65 & Leyton – Maidstone 2 @1.60 (2.64 @Bwin) 4 units

After a dissapointed 1:2 home defeat to high-flyers Hampton & Richmond last Saturday (their captain Robinson got sent off, but he will be able to play in this match), Lewes will be dying to get back on track – they're league leaders, but they played two matches more and have only six point more than 2nd Eastbourne. In fact, they already did bounce back – they won 2:1 at Horsham in the Sussex Cup this Tuesday. Lewes' manager signed a couple of new players – talented young winger Cox from Luton and striker Barr who scored 14 goals in 18 matches for Tonbridge this season. Another striker Sigere is finally fit too – he was out injured all season, then loaned to Horsham where he scored a couple of important goals, and now he's back and fired up to go. But, Lewes could even do without all of them – Conference South's leading scorer Booth scored 15 goals in the last 15 matches (all together, he already scored 28 goals in all competitions this season!), Drury scored four in the last five and Wormull scored three in the last five matches. Before that 1:2 defeat to Hampton, they had three handicap wins in a row (4:0 at home vs FA Cup heroes Havant, 2:0 away at direct rivals, 2nd Eastbourne, 4:0 at home vs 5th Basingstoke). Lewes are also the best away team in the league (9-1-2, goal-difference 29:13) – they already managed to take all three points at Havant, Bishop's Stortford, Bromley, Fisher, Eastbourne, to mention just a few. They lost at Eastleigh in October and, surprisingly, at Hayes, month and a half ago, but after that they went on a great run – they won two away matches at promotion candidates, then shared points at home with 2nd Eastbourne and then won three matches without conceding a goal (and scoring ten). After their first home defeat this season (1:2 to Hampton last Saturday), it's time for them to show who owns this league, at least this season.

Welling aren't the worst home team in the league, but they're one of the worst (3-4-6). They played their last match three weeks ago – some players joined, some players left, some are suspended – no big deal. They won their last match almost three months ago (against on/off Bromley) and in the last eight matches, they have five defeats and three draws. They lost to 17th Maidenhead, 5th Basingstoke, 8th Fisher (twice) and 3rd Hampton, and managed to share points with 18th Bognor Regis, 22nd Sutton and 13th Thurrock. They have two defeats in a row – their last match was a 0:4 defeat at Hampton. That's not all – they're still without a manager and could have serious forward problems for this match. Quote from the fans' forum: ''... Just spoken to Lloyd after seeing him leaving the ground today and he confirmed he had just negotiated his release from the club to take up an offer from his hometown club , he mentioned Ryman League Folkestone (that's been confirmed in the meantime, Lloyd Blackman left). I asked if he had any idea who our new manager would be, which he said he didnt...Also heard that Omari (Coleman) and Remy may be struggling for the weekend so we may need to find a forward or 2 before Saturday...''.

Leyton, 'the oldest club in London' obviously keep on going down down down – they still look like Slough from last season in Ryman Premier League. They're rock bottom, 22nd, 4-3-20, goal-difference 28:69. At home, they have 2-2-9 (15:38), but those wins happened a long time ago. Leyton now have ten defeats in a row and their goal-difference in those ten matches is 6:35. Yes. 35 goals conceded. All the best players left, they have a very young improvised squad and even though they tried really hard to leave a good impression at league leaders Chelmsford, they lost in the end (only 1:2, Chelmsford had a player sent off). This Tuesday, they lost 0:4 at home to 18th Tonbridge who lost a couple of important players recently. Infront of the 'crowd' of 60 people. Not much of an atmosphere there...

Maidstone are currently 12th. They were awful away from home at the start of the season, but everything changes – after six straight defeats away from home, they managed to win four and lose only two away matches. They won at 13th Ashford, 7th Margate, 9th Horsham and 14th Boreham Wood and lost only at 16th Heybridge and 11th Carshalton – two teams that are having a nice reinassance lately. They lost 0:1 at home to Billericay last Saturday, but Billericay are also having a nice little reinassance and Maidstone were playing without their recent signing, midfielder Hagan who was great in the match before, when they won away at Boreham Wood. Hagan will play in this match and Maidstone also have a class player in Takaloo upfront. I just watched three match highlights from their last three home matches – they were great against East Thurrock (won 3:1), surprisingly dangerous against Wimbledon (lost 1:2, but hit the bar twice, penalty against them was very harsh and sending off one of Maidstone's players were even harsher) and very unlucky against Billericay (lost 0:1, but very unlucky, they could've scored not just one, but a few goals). Very nice odds for this double.

(2.50 at Gamebookers, 2.47 at Skybet, 2.40 at StanJames, 2.32 at Sportingbet, 2.31 at Bet-at-home...)

FT 0:4 / 0:1

UNIBOND PREMIER

Kendal – Ossett 1 (2.38 @StanJames) 2 units

Kendal are currently 18th, just outside the relegation zone, but they finally started playing some football and fighting for points. They have 2-5-4 at home (goal-difference 14:18), but their chances here are much better than the odds suggest. They lost 1:2 at Ossett a month ago, but it was their only defeat in December (2:2 at home vs 13th Ashton, 3:1 at home vs 20th Lincoln, 1:1 at home vs 6th Eastwood). In January, they have a brave 1:1 draw at home vs 2nd Fleetwood and a spectacular 3:2 win away at 17th Ilkeston. They had a defender on goal for the most of the match, but he was incredible – saved a penalty and a bunch of other shots. He was so good that the home crowd had to applaud him at the end. At Ossett, they could've even won the match, but conceded two late goals and lost all points. They brought in a couple of new players and I really think they could win this match. Let's hope it's not going to be another draw.

Ossett are currently 10th, they have 5-0-7 away from home (goal-difference 16:18), but they're not in good form. They lost their last three matches – all away from home (1:2 at 16th North Ferriby, 2:3 at 9th Stamford, 1:3 at 5th Buxton). Before that, they managed to beat 12th Whitby at home, but before that, they even lost a home match to poor, bottom of the table Frickley. They are missing a lot of defenders for this match – Cotterhill and Meadowcroft left the club (midfielder Pugh left too) and Denton is suspended.

(2.40 at Primebet, 2.38 at Gamebookers, Bet365 and PartyBets, 2.35 at Stanleybet, Bwin and Bet-at-home... 1.71 currently at Pinnacle for DNB...)

FT 0:2

SOUTHERN PREMIER

Hemel Hempstead – Bromsgrove X2 (2.00 @Bet-at-home) 2 units

Incredible odds for Hemel not to win. I already wrote about Hemel being a lousy team at home (3-4-4) – they're currently 4th, but they played five (!) matches more and have only four points more than 6th Bashley. Let's take a look at their last few matches, played in the last month and a half, shall we? 2:3 home defeat to 8th Banbury, 0:0 home draw vs 14th Merthyr, 1:2 home defeat to 11th Yate, 1:1 home draw vs 6th Bashley, 2:2 away draw at leaders King's Lynn, 0:1 away defeat at 19th Cirencester, 4:2 home win over leaders King's Lynn, 4:0 away win at 22nd Cheshunt. Okay, the last two matches were nice wins, but the match against King's Lynn is always a big derby and Cheshunt are really poor at the moment – bottom of the table by far. They will be without three suspended players (midfielder Burgess, striker Sozzo and defender Yeboah) and four players left the club at the beginning of January (just two new players joined them in the meantime). Suspended duo Burgess and Sozzo scored 16 goals together this season and practically the only player Bromsgrove have to look out for is their best scorer Roberts.

Bromsgrove's temporary manager Darby is doing a fine job there – he suffered just one league defeat since he took the reigns in December. Let's take a look at their matches in the last month. 1:0 home win over 2nd Halesowen, 2:2 away draw at 11th Yate, 3:1 home win over 21st Hitchin, 1:1 home draw vs 14th Merthry and, finally, 2:2 away draw at 5th Chippenham. Their striker Jakab will be missed as he goes on a vacation in Hungary, but they just brought in another striker Cornes from Telford – the guy started his career at mighty Wolverhampton, but was positive on cocaine when he was just about to get into their first team. Pressure, I guess. Another new signing is former West Brom centre-back Burgess who joined them from Nuneaton and experienced mifielder Benbow is finally fit. Bromsgrove are currently 15th, but those five matches without a defeat say a lot too. Away from home, Bromsgrove have 4-2-7. Doesn't look very good, but Bromsgrove had an awful start of the season – they're doing very good now and they almost took all three points at Chippenham. The match ended 2:2, but Chippenham are a much better home team than Hemel. 2.00 for a win-win-lose situation like this? Of course.

(2.00 also at Paddy Power, 1.84 at Stanleybet, 1.93 for (+0.75) at Pinnacle also sounds great, but you can improvize this X2 yourself – Skybet and Bet365 offer gigantic 4.50 for an away win and you can find 3.60 for a draw anywhere...)

FT 0:2

- 20:09 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

22.01.2008., utorak

22.1.2008. +2 units

RYMAN PREMIER

Wealdstone – East Thurrock 1 (2.00 @Gamebookers) 5 units

18th Wealdstone against 19th East Thurrock – relegation fight indeed. I like these odds though, because I'd never offer more than 1.80 on Wealdstone here. Why? Well, they did lose two away matches in a row now, but they also had a couple of impressive results in a row before that, in December (2:0 at 14th Boreham Wood, 3:1 at home vs 15th Folkestone, 5:1 at 8th Harrow...). They brought in another highly rated defender on loan these days and a couple of players who were injured are back in the team. They're not the best home team in the world, but they're much better at home than East Thurrock are away from home and, last but not least, I expect a loud support from the home fans – they have every right to sing and drink because, from the next season, Wealdstone will finally have their own pitch. These are fresh news – supporters are volunteering to get their new pitch to shape before the next season and the least players can do is to win at home, vs poor East Thurrock.

East Thurrock have 2-3-7 away from home, their recent results have been truly awful and I don't think they have much chance here. They lost their last two matches with a handicap (2:4 at home to Billericay, 0:3 away at Horsham) and their only positive results in the last month and a half were home wins against 14th Boreham Wood (1:0, thanx to the Wood's goalkeeper's mistake) and clueless, bottom of the table Leyton (also 1:0, one of the East Thurrock's fans put it like this: ''...I think the ball was apologising as it went over the line...'). Just take a look at their last three away matches – 1:4 at Margate, 1:3 at Maidstone, 0:3 at Horsham. The fans are silent, the forum is dead, it won't be easy for them to stay in Ryman Premier this time. Nice odds...

(2.00 also at... Well, everywhere except at StanJames and Sportingbet – only 1.90 there... 2.10 at Stanleybet though and Pinnacle currently offer 1.78 for (-0.25)....)

POSTPONED

RYMAN PREMIER

AD-HOC DRAW-NO-BET: Billericay – Wimbledon 1 (3.25 @Skybet) 3 units & X (3.50 @StanJames) 2 units

I like these odds very much – I'm not saying Billericay will win for sure, but I am saying this is a very nice value bet – a home win brings us +4.75 units profit and even a draw brings us +2.00 units profit. Not much, but somehow I don't think Billericay will lose this match. Wimbledon players are going to be up for it after losing at Folkestone, but Billericay have always been their unlucky place. Last season, it was 3:0 for Billericay. Season before that, it was 2:1 for Billericay and two Wimbledon players got sent off. I wrote a lot about currently 11th Billericay before the postponed Billericay – Folkestone match was going to be played. Their temporary management duo is doing a fine job after hitting an all-time-low a month ago. They brought in a very good striker Bricknell who scored on his debut, this Saturday away at Maidstone (Billericay won 1:0) and midfielder Shave who scored twice two and a half weeks ago away at East Thurrock (Billericay won 4:2), and a couple of players returned to the team after being injured for quite some time. After playing four league matches away from home (lost 0:1 at leaders Chelmsford and 1:3 at 4th Staines – no big deal – but won at 19th East Thurrock and 12th Maidstone), they're finally home and their fans are going to be very loud this time – it's Wimbledon they're up against.

After five league wins in a row, currently 3rd Wimbledon finally lost a match, at struggling Folkestone (2:3). That's a shame – if they didn't, I'd stake more units against them. Like I said, Billericay is their unlucky place and I suppose they did relax a bit, now when they finally made it to the play-off zone. They'll stay 3rd regardless of the today's result and, after all, they won just five out of twelve away matches this season. Webb is out suspended, their manager said he's probably going to leave some standard players on the bench after that dissapointment at Folkestone (veteran Marcus Gayle and striker Jolly who played for reserves recently, but battled his way back to the 1st team, could both be in the starting eleven) and, I don't know, these odds are just too bloody high. It's a win-win-lose situation this time and Billericay should at least take a point from this match. After all, if we look at those five wins in a row for Wimbledon, we can see this pattern that I like very much – they were great against Carshalton and Staines, won with a handicap both times, but then they barely managed to beat Hendon (they were leading 3:0 and the match ended 3:2 – very lucky win), 2:1 away win at 12th Maidstone was also hard-fought and very lucky (they were even losing 0:1) and a 2:1 home win vs 13th Ashford was also hard-fought and narrow. After that came an unexpected 2:3 defeat at Folkestone. Maybe it's time for a handicap defeat – after that, they'd probably start winning again. I like Billericay chances here very much...

(1.79 at Pinnacle for (+0.5) or 1X – sounds great, much better than Paddy Power's 1.67 or Gamebookers' 1.62 for 1X... Home win is 3.10 at Stanleybet, Sportingbet and Primebet and 3.00 everywhere else... 3.50 for a draw can be found anywhere...)

FT 2:2

- 22:30 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

19.1.2008. -6 units

CONF SOUTH

Eastleigh – St Albans OVER 3.5 (2.63 @Blue Square) 6 units

Eastleigh are a good team this season, but after a great run (five wins and one draw in seven matches) that lasted untill a month ago, they relaxed quite a bit and won only once in the last six matches (lost only twice though – away at Cup heroes and great hosts Havant and at home to 2nd Eastbourne). They still have a great chance for a play-off spot of course – they're currently 9th, but with only one point less than 5th Basingstoke (play-off zone). Their last two matches were full of goals – they won 4:3 at Basingstoke and then shared points in a shocking match at home vs Bath City that ended 4:4 two weeks ago. Last Saturday they played an FA Trophy match away at strong Conference National outfit Crawley and lost 1:2, but now it's league time again – at home, versus struggling St Albans. Marshall, Forbes and Sales all scored three goals for Eastleigh recently – Marshall (who came on loan from Grays after Scannell left at the end of the year) in the last two league matches, Forbes in the last three and Sales in the last four league matches. Oh, they will score here, don't worry about that – the right questions is how many goals will they score and how many will they concede. They will be without their captain and standard defender Harris due to suspension – nice. They still have some injury problems too and I expect them to concede at least one or two goals in this match. Massive value in these odds...

St Albans concede most goals per match away at home – they condeded 25 in 11 matches. They're also bottom of the league (22nd, with only three wins in 23 matches, goal-difference 19:49). They changed a couple of managers (Anderson was fired on January 2nd) and enormous bunch of players this season already (only two players and a goalkeeper played in both 1st and 23rd league match of the season – all together 41 player have played for them this season) but apparently nothing works. They have three defeats in a row (0:4 away at 17th Cambridge, 1:2 at home to 21nd Sutton, 1:3 away at 12th Havant). Practically all of their away matches at play-off candidates produced a lot of goals (4:3 win at Bishop's Stortford, 1:4 defeat at Hampton, 4:3 win at Bromley, 1:3 defeat at Basingstoke, 1:3 defeat at Havant) – okay, it was only 0:2 at Newport in August and only 0:3 at Bath in September, but that was a long time ago and Newport and Bath (along with Eastbourne) score the least goals of all serious play-off candidates (less then Lewes, Hampton, Bromley, Bishop's Stortford and Eastleigh) anyway. Did I happen to mention that they will be without four (4) suspended players – silly me? Oh yes – standard winger Bruce (played in 21 out of 23 league matches), central midfielder Stevenson (played in all ten league matches since he joined in late October), full back Faal-Thomas (joined exactly when Stevenson joined too, played in all matches except for two matches in December when he was injured or suspended, I'm not sure, mea culpa) and left-back Vargas (joined exactly when Faal-Thomas and Stevenson joined to, played in most matches) are all out suspended.

(2.36 at Stanleybet for OVER 3.5, 1.50 for OVER 2.5... Pinnacle offer 1.88 and 10Bet offer 1.87 for OVER 2.75...)

FT 1:1

CONF SOUTH

Bishop's Stortford – Welling OVER 3.5 (2.88 @Blue Square) 5 units

I wrote about Bishop's Stortford a week and a half ago when they trashed Cup heroes Havant 4:1. If I update the facts, I could really just copy/paste what I wrote then. Bishop's Stortford aren't the best home team this season (5-3-4, goal difference 26:20), they had an on/off season so far, but they're still very serious play-off candidates (currently 8th, only one point less than 5th Basingstoke, but you should know that they played three matches less than Basingstoke). Their best scorer Pearson scored 13 goals in the last 8 matches (in all competitions) and he's currently the second best scorer of the Conference South. If we look at Bishop's last six home matches in all competitions, we see a lot of goals (8:0 win over Canvey in the FA Trophy 1st round, 5:2 win over Welwyn in Hearts Senior Cup, a Boxing Day 3:4 defeat to Braintree in the league, 4:0 win vs Cambridge in the league, 4:1 win vs Havant in the league, 2:2 draw vs mighty Halifax in the FA Trophy 2nd round – right, that's six matches then went into OVER 3.5 in a row, even if we ignore the first two gigantic wins over much worse outfits, it still looks very good). Only Hampton score more than Bishop's Stortford at home and Bishop's Stortford also concede a lot more at home than other play-off candidates.

Welling are currently 18th, very near the relegation zone and they're still looking for a new manager. They had a weird away schedule so far – they played only at three serious play-off candidates (Lewes, Eastbourne and Hampton) – all of the other away matches were against fellow strugglers or mid-table teams with no real promotion chances. It was 0:4 at Hampton, and only 0:2 at Lewes and 0:1 at Eastbourne, but the matches at Lewes and Eastbourne have been played four months ago. They didn't score much nor concede much away from home (2-2-7, goal-difference 7:18), but they've got nothing to lose here and they could score – Hampton's defence really isn't the best in the league. They will surely concede and I think they could concede a lot of goals this time. After all, they have three OVER 3.5 matches in a row (2:2 at home vs Thurrock, 2:3 defeat away at Fisher, 0:4 at Hampton). They will also be without two suspended players – striker Hill doesn't play much and that's not such a big deal, but the other suspended players is standard defender (and one of the two temporary managers) Moore who played in 23 out of 24 league matches so far. Both last season matches between these two teams went OVER 3.5 too. 2.88? Well of course, thank you very much...

(2.36 at Stanleybet for OVER 3.5, 1.50 for OVER 2.5... Pinnacle and 10Bet both offer 1.88 for OVER 2.75...)

POSTPONED

CONF SOUTH

Newport – Havant 1 (1.85 @Betway) 5 units

Only three days after the Swansea replay, Havant face another team from Wales – and this time they have to travel there. Newport did dissapoint their fans two weeks ago when they only managed to share points with Hayes at home, but before that they trashed Weston 5:0 at home (and, before that, won 3:2 away at Dorchester) and now they face Cup heroes Havant. Newport will surely try to beat the team that managed to beat Swansea and Havant players will probably still have hangover and they could daydream about the big match at Liverpool during the match just like they daydreamed about the big match vs Swansea when they played at Bishop's Stortford a week and a half ago and lost 1:4. After all, Newport are a very strong team, they're currently 6th, just outside the play-off zone, but they have only one point less and played four matches less than 5th Basinsgtoke. At home, they're very good (6-3-1, goal-difference 22:9), they had six home wins in a row (in all competitions) before the draw vs Hayes (and an FA Trophy 1:2 defeat to mighty Torquay last Saturday).

Havant players deserve a day-off after their FA Cup heroics and I'm sure they will miss motivation for this match. They will also miss their standard left-back Poate (who created two of the goals from the left vs Swansea) due to suspension and they're traditionally lousy away from home. In fact, they're the worst home team in the Conference South by far – they managed to win only once in ten (10) matches (goal-difference 12:24). They managed to win an away match in the league only once, in the 2nd round, back in August, at terrible hosts Dorchester. Let's take a look at their away league matches in the last month, shall we? 2:4 defeat at on/off Fisher, 1:1 at struggling Bognor, 0:4 defeat at league leaders Lewes, 1:4 defeat at play-off candidates Bishop's Stortford. Terrible away form. Last year, it was 1:0 for the hosts at Newport – I expect a similar result or even a handicap win for the home team. This asian handicap (it's a normal home win, of course) at 10Bet and Pinnacle looks awesome...

(1.83 at Stanleybet, StanJames and Blue Square, 1.80 elsewhere...)

POSTPONED

CONF NORTH

Hyde – Alfreton OVER 3.5 (2.88 @Blue Square) 3 units

Two teams that play very open football– it's all very obvious if we look at their results, especially lately. Hyde are currently 5th but they're a bit out of form recently, haven't won in four league matches, but they score even when they lose (1:3 at home to Stalybridge, 2:2 at home vs Harrogate, 1:3 away at Stalybridge, 2:4 at home to Blythe) and concede practically in every match. At home, they scored 31 (only Kettering scored more) and conceded 20 goals (like some teams from the relegation zone) in 13 matches.

Alfreton are currently 12th. They played only 11 away matches so far, scored 14 and conceded 16 goals, but their recent matches have been full of goals (2:2 at Hucknall, 1:2 at Boston, 2:1 at home over Hucknall, 3:4 at home to Stalybridge). It was 3:0 for Hyde at Alfreton in October and both of last season's matches between these two teams also produced a lot of goals goals (2:1 at Hyde, 2:2 at Alfreton). Alfreton will miss suspended striker Reet and, more important, Hyde will miss suspended central midfielder Pickford.

(2.36 at Stanleybet for OVER 3.5, 1.50 for OVER 2.5... Pinnacle offer 1.76 and 10Bet offer 1.74 for OVER 2.75...)

FT 0:2

CONF NORTH

Hucknall – Southport 2 (2.00 @Skybet) 3 units

Hucknall are currently 17th, but they have only four points more and already played four matches more than 20th Hinckley (relegation zone). They're one of the worse home teams in Conference North with only three wins in 14 matches (3-3-8, goal-difference 18:25) and they also have four defeats in a row. Centre half Timmons left and joined Ilkeston a couple of days ago, and midfielder Robinson and defender Macpherson are both out suspended – just like against Kettering last Saturday when Hucknall lost 0:2 at home. I expect a similar result here.

Southport are 2nd, they're one of the best away outfits in the league (6-2-3, goal-difference 17:11) and they were great away at 15th Gainsborough last time out, won 3:0. A couple of players have returned to the team after being injured and probably the only absentee will be suspended defender Lee. They haven't lost a league match for three months and these odds look very good.

(1.91 at Gamebookers, Coral, PartyBets and also at Pinnacle currently... Only 1.80 at Stanleybet....)

FT 1:2

- 22:29 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

16.01.2008., srijeda

16.1.2008. +9.05 units

FA CUP

Havant & Waterloovile – Swansea OVER 2.75 (2.05 @Pinnacle) 5 units
Havant & Waterloovile – Swansea OVER 4 (4.80 @Bet365) 1 unit

Higher limits at Pinnacle for this bet than usual – thank you Pinnacle. If these two bets look familiar to you, you're right – we had the same bets for the Chasetown-Cardiff match, a bit lower odds this time, but only a bit. Should I start the old story once again? Okay, bravo Havant, you made it all the way to the FA Cup 3rd proper round replay, but this time... The truth is – I'll be supporting Havant this time – it would be great for non-league football to have Havant, a mid-table club from Conference South, in the FA Cup 4th round proper, playing away at Liverpool. Who knows what can happen, it's the FA Cup. But, if someone would force me to bet on a correct result, I'd probably say 1:3 or 1:4, maybe even 1:5 or 2:5, something like that.

What I think will happen in any case are lots of goals. After drawing 1:1 at Swansea, Havant players couldn't even concentrate on the next league match (it's that big a deal) – we were there to bet against them when they lost 1:4 at Bishop's Stortford a week ago. This Saturday, they managed to focus finally and beat poor St Albans 3:1 at home. I would be surprised if they wouldn't do their best to score a goal here, to thank the fans for being behind them during this incredible FA Cup run. They certainly have the guys who can score vs any team. Rocky Baptiste, last season's best scorer, scored an equaliser at Swansea and is nominated for the player of the round (and Pacquette is also a very good forward), even defender Jordan scored twice against St Albans and super-sub Watkins scored against both Bishop's Stortford and St Albans. And they have some great wingers and attacking midfielders too.

Swansea are high-flying leaders of League One (three levels above Conf South). They score a lot of goals in League One – this Saturday, they managed to beat Luton 3:1 away from home and had a couple of high-scoring home matches just before the New Year (3:2 vs Leeds, 4:1 vs Cheltenham and, of course, let's not forget a 6:2 win vs Horsham in the FA Cup 2nd round proper – we were there of course to collect some units). If Liverpool beats Luton (and Luton are currently struggling with finances, a couple of players already left and that should also be an OVER match...), Swansea will field out their strongest team, but even if they don't, this bet will still look good – I already placed my units.

The first match at Swansea was very nervous and very unlucky for Swansea who hit the bar three or four times. Havant's left-back Poate injured Swansea's player Orlandi badly and got sent off (he will be able to play in this match, but not in the eventual Liverpool dream-match – he will miss as much as four matches). After that, Swansea's player Tate also got sent off and Swansea fans are furious becuase Orlandi is now going to be out for as much as three months. We could see another red card here and that could also help us with this bet. Loving these odds...

(10Bet offer 2.03 and Bet365 offer 2.00 for OVER 2.75... Bet365 offer all sorts of asian OVERs again – from 1.16 for OVER 1.5,..., 1.76 for OVER 2.5, 2.34 for OVER 3, and so on, all up to 5.20 for OVER 4.25... 1.69 at Stanleybet for OVER 2.5 and 2.84 for OVER 3.5... Betsafe offer 2.65 and Blue Square offer 2.63 for OVER 3.5... A lot of available OVERs at Paddy Power too and you can find an OVER 2.5 at more than twenty bookies – the odds for OVER 2.5 are between 1.60 and 1.73...)

FT 4:2

- 22:55 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

15.01.2008., utorak

15.1.2008. +0 units

CONF SOUTH

Hampton & Richmond – Bath City OVER 3.5 (3.10 @Blue Square) 3 units

It's still not known how the weather at Hampton will be this evening and Hampton's fans are hoping that Bob the Groundsman is prepared and doing everything for pitch to be in a good shape for this play-off candidates derby. But, we should see a lot of goals here anyhow. Hampton lost 2:3 at home to Thurrock this Saturday, but had plenty of chances and I'm sure they'll want to score as many goals as possible here. Their scorers Godfrey (scored four goals in last two matches), Hodges and McAuley are all in great form – you can see that by simply taking a look at their latest results. Out of last five matches, only one didn't produce four or more goals. 2:2 at home vs Sutton, 4:1 at home vs Hayes, 1:2 away at Sutton, 4:0 at home vs Welling, 2:3 at home to Thurrock. A lot of goals – only Welling didn't manage to score against Hampton, but no one was surprised because Welling are currently really poor, lost a manager and they scored only four goals in last nine matches. I'm sure Bath City will score in this match. And, of course, I'm sure Hampton will score as well – only really bad weather could mess up this bet IMO. If we look at last ten Hampton's home matches in Conference South, we can see that only two matches didn't produce at least four goals. The results are 2:2, 3:1, 1:1 (struggling Maidenhead), 4:1, 1:1 (on/off Bishop's Stortford), 5:1, 2:2, 4:1, 4:0 and, finally, 2:3 this Saturday. Five OVER 3.5 matches in a row for Hampton. Looks very good, doesn't it?

Bath City started the season as an UNDER team, but as the time went by, they started to score more and also concede more. They will be without their important midfielder Hogg once again – he missed Bath's last two matches – 4:4 draw at Eastleigh and a 4:0 win at Sutton. I'm sure their defence will be a bit more relaxed after that 4:0 win away at Sutton and that's just what we need here. Bath City scores and concedes more goals when they're playing away from home – especially when they're playing at play-off candidates. 3:2 win at Newport and 4:4 at Eastleigh are good examples of that. Their striker Gilroy is on fire currently, he scored a hat-trick at Eastleigh and then another hat-trick at Sutton this Saturday. Holland scored a goal in every of the last three matches too. Bath also have some injury problems and they just brought in a very attacking winger Prince on loan from Salisbury. Last but not least, both teams should be up for it – they are direct rivals and they both came to Conference South this season, after winning Ryman Premier (Hampton) and Southern Premier (Bath) leagues. Who is better? Who can score more goals? It was 2:0 at Bath, but that was the start of the season. Both outfits have much more confidence now, when it's obvious they can compete at this level too – not just compete, they could even be promoted to the Conference National if they go on like this. I just can't ignore these odds...

(Pinnacle offers 1.98 for OVER 2.75 and 10Bet offers 1.71 for OVER 2.5 and 1.96 for OVER 2.75 – in that case, we have some profit as soon as three goals are scored... 2.26 for OVER 3 at 10Bet... 1.53 at Stanleybet for OVER 2.5 and 2.42 for OVER 3.5...)

POSTPONED

RYMAN PREMIER

East Thurrock – Staines 2 (2.20 @Sportingbet) 3 units

East 'free fall' Thurrock are currently 18th, just outside the relegation zone, but if they continue with recent results, they will be down there for sure. Their December was really bad – the new manager obviously didn't help much – but their January have not even been bad but truly awful, at least so far. They've lost 2:4 at home to lousy guests Bilericay and then 0:3 away at Horsham. Before those two matches, they managed to win a match, but it was only a narrow 1:0 home win against poor Leyton who have goal-difference 5:33 in last eight matches. One of East Thurrock fans put it like this: ''...I think the ball was apologising as it went over the line...'.

Staines are serious play-off candidates, they're currently 4th (but you should know that they have eight points less and played six matches less then 2nd Hendon), they have 4-3-2 away from home, they brought in a very good striker Calliste a week ago (played for Man Utd and Scunthorpe), they had a great FA Cup run and have no problem with suspensions this time. I'm sure they want to get back on track and take these three points after drawing 3:3 at Carshalton this Saturday – I know it looks bad, only sharing points at 13th Carshalton, but you should know that Staines were 1:3 down and managed to score two late goals and pick up at least one point and Carshalton are the in-form team currently, after beating 2nd Hendon 5:0 away from home and another in-form team, Wealdstone, 1:0 at home. In fact, this 3:3 draw came after three consecutive wins for Carshalton.

Before the draw at Carshalton, Staines managed to beat two very good teams – it was 2:0 at home vs 5th Ramsgate and 3:1 also at home vs currently 15th Billericay (who could end up in the play-off zone after all). Staines have a great squad, especially upfront (and after conceding three at East Thurrock, I'm sure they'll try to improve their defence too), and at these odds, I'd bet on them against any team in the Ryman Premier except maybe Chelmsford and Wimbledon and, of course, the in-form teams of the moment...

(2.10 at Stanleybet and currently at Pinnacle, 2.00 at StanJames, Bet365, Paddy Power, Primebet...)

POSTPONED

- 14:49 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

12.01.2008., subota

12.1.2008. +6.5 units

RYMAN PREMIER

Billericay – Folkestone 1 (1.85 @Sportingbet) 8 units

Billericay are currently 12th and Folkestone are 18th, but that doesn't mean much in the Ryman Premier this season. There are just two points between these two outfits and just eight points between 5th (play-off zone) Ramsgate and 18th Folkestone. But!, all that doesn't always mean that a match could go either way (in terms of 50/50 chances). In this case, Billericay have much more chance for a win then the odds suggest. Billericay have always been playing very good at home. This was a shock-season for them so far though and that's why their home form is only 5-1-4 (goal-difference 21:14). The last time I placed a bet on them, they were playing at home vs mid-table Hornchurch and lost (and slipped right into relegation zone), but that proved to be the turning point, the all-time-low, call it whatever you want. I knew it had to happen, but at the moment I've thought it already did happen. After that 0:2 home defeat, Billericay won 1:0 away at 21st Hastings, won 2:1 at home vs 15th Harlow, then narrowly lost 0:1 away at league leaders Chelmsford, but won 4:2 away at 17th East Thurrock and then finally lost 1:3 away at 4th Staines (who are one of the three best teams in the Ryman league right now). Now they're finally home again, some long-term injury victims finally came back into the team (very important central defender Blewitt is finally back), new scorer Bricknel who scored 12 goals for Leyton this season will have his debut (midfielder Shave is another fresh signing and he scored two goals last Saturday at East Thurrock) and they couldn't have a better opponent here – struggling Folkestone. Their temporary management duo is doing a fine job and that's why they've got another month for proving they deserve a full-time job to the club's chairman.

Folkestone's away form doesn't look awful – it's 4-1-7 (goal-difference 11:15). But!, you should know that those away wins are already forgotten. They had six away wins in a row (in all competitions, not just the league) in September and October, yes, but now they have nine away defeats in a row (in all competitions). They were the worst home team in the first couple of months of the season, but now they have three home wins in a row. Everything changes, right? And, after all, three mentioned home wins aren't really that big a deal if we look at their opponents in those matches. Horsham aren't a bad team, but they're awful away from home and it was their post-FA Cup match. Hastings (1:0) are 21st (second to bottom) and Leyton (2:0) managed to lost all the players (22nd, bottom). But I like that aspect of this bet, Folkestone won their last three home matches and it won't be a disaster if they lose this one. After all, Billericay are a wealthier club, they're playing at home and have been underperforming in the first part of the season... Right. Besides that, Folkestone just lost their striker Shittu (I'm not kidding, that's his name) who scored a couple of goals for them in December, skipper Edge faces a late fitness test and goalkeeper Mitten returns after quite some time – maybe he's a bit rusty then. Last time these two outfits played a match (at Folkestone, in the FA Cup last qualifying round, a month and a half ago), the result was 2:0 for the guests from Billericay.

Folkestone fans' thoughts: ''... Odds are that we will be the lowest goalscorers in the Premier again this season. Believe it or not, it was like that even when we had JD getting 19 for us before Christmas when he left. As the man said at the shareholders meeting we simply don't score enough goals. Won't someone, somewhere, find us the cash to pay a decent striker; Brems is great in terms of effort but hasn't scored the goals we would have liked from him and Ellis and Shittu are now gone with no real sign of a replacement. I support the club rather than the manager or any particular player(s) but we've got to find some more goals from somehwere. And please Harry let's not have the nonsense about Friendy playing up front - Liam's an excellent defender or even attacking left-sided midifeld at a push...''

Eight out of ten Folkestone fans predict a handicap win for Billericay. Who am I to disagree?

(1.85 also at Bwin, 1.83 at StanJames, 1.80 elsewhere... 1.90 at Stanleybet though and Pinnacle were brilliant with their 1.98, but that doesn't last long, does it?...)

POSTPONED

RYMAN/CONF-SOUTH DOUBLE: Leyton – Harrow 2 @1.57 & Hampton & Richmond – Thurrock 1 @1.53 (2.4021 @Bet365) 4 units

Leyton are a complete mess currently and really look like Slough from last season. They have seven defeats in a row and their goal-difference in these seven matches is, believe it or not, 5:30. Yes, you read it right. 5:30. All the good players left (their best scorer Bricknel, the only guy who had some chances to score at Folkestone last Saturday, who scored 12 goals already this season and it's a helluva lot when you're playing for Leyton, just left too and joined Billericay) and the kids who are currently playing for them can't compete at this level. Harrow trashed Heybridge 5:0 last Saturday (I saw the match highlights, Harrow played great) and scored five when they played against Leyton last time too. They're getting better and better away from home and should score a couple of goals at Leyton.

Hampton & Richmond lost only one home match this season and that was back in August, on the opening day of the season. They did and probably still do have some injury problems, but even without five players they managed to trash Welling 4:0 last Saturday. Bloody hell, their manager Devonshire even managed to break the 'manager-of-the-month' curse. Thurrock will be without their suspended defender Swaine, injured defender Clarke and striker McKenzie who will probably miss the whole season. Another defender Anderson could be missing too due to his injury. Striker Malcolm, who scored two goals in four matches for Thurrock, left and joined Weymouth. Thurrock have a very shaky defense – they conceded 18 goals in the last six matches. It was 5:0 for Hampton at Thurrock in September.

(2.40 also at Skybet, 2.32 at Gamebookers, Bwin, Bet-at-home... Only 2.19 at Stanleybet...)

FT 0:3 / 2:3

RYMAN PREMIER

Ramsgate – Hendon 1 (2.40 @StanJames) 3 units

Very nice odds, bookies don't see the big picture again (or do they?). Ramsgate are great at home (8-3-1, goal-difference 27:10) and Hendon are pretty good away from home (6-2-4, goal-difference 34:21), but that's what you see after only few minutes of researching. October 6th. That's when Ramsgate lost a league home match last time. After that – 2:0 vs Chelmsford (!), 4:1 vs Hastings, 2:1 vs Heybridge, 3:1 vs Ashford, 1:1 vs Hornchurch, 1:1 vs Wimbledon, 2:1 vs Folkestone. Two draws (Wimbledon are Wimbledon and Ramsgate just beat Hornchurch away from home in the League Cup to make up for the draw at home) and five wins. I seriously think Ramsgate will be higher on the league table then Hendon by the end of the season. They have a very big squad and two suspended players (Schulz and Davis) won't be that big a deal. Ramsgate aren't that good away from home, but that's another story. They're cleary underestimated here.

Hendon were, now it's fair enough to say it, never serious title candidates. They had a massive run in the first couple of months of the season, they were even league leaders for quite a time, but it's obvious now that they lack funds for something bigger and Chelmsford, Wimbledon, Staines and Ramsgate will all most probably finish higher then Hendon. Hendon now have two consecutive defeats (2:3 at Wimbledon and 0:5 at home to poor Carshalton), but it was obvious that something's wrong even when they only managed to share points at home with Heybridge and Harrow in late December. I still remember that 1:5 defeat at Chelmsford three months ago (I was there to bet on Chelmsford, of course). Yes, Hendon can trash their struggling opponents away from home (11:1 at Leyton, 4:0 at Folkestone), but when they travel to one of the 'big boys' (Chelmsford, Wimbledon, they are yet to play at Staines and now Ramsgate), they're not so good. They have some late-fitness tests to do, standard defender Maclaren is suspended and they are still a modest club – they know they can't be the winners of this league and they except the fact that important players are going to leave them every now and then because of more money elsewhere (something that the 'big boys' in this league don't do). I'm not saying this will surely be a home win – I'm just saying that these are great-looking odds (it should be 2.10 for a Ramsgate win if you ask me). In the long run, this is a winning bet regardless to the outcome of this particular match.

(2.40 also at Sportingbet and Bwin, 2.38 at Bet365, Skybet and Paddy Power... 1.94 for DRAW NO BET at Pinnacle looks delicious and it would've been an official bet for at least 4 or 5 units if limits were higher at Pinnacle... Only 2.25 at Stanleybet...)

FT 2:1

CONFERENCE NORTH

Barrow – Gainsborough 1 (2.00 @Bwin) 3 units

Barrow are still the in-form team in the Conference North. They're currently 13th, but the narrow 1:2 defeat at 9th Burscough last Saturday was their first defeat in eight league matches. The new management team is obviously doing a fine job there. When they're playing away from home, it's probably best to bet on a draw (just look at their December results), but when they're playing at home (and they were without a home match for the whole December) ... Well, lately, you grab odds like these and wish for the bad luck to ignore you this time. Barrow now have three home wins in a row – looks fantastic, 4:0 vs 4th Telford, 4:1 vs 9th Burscough (both back in November) and, finally a home match after more than a month, on the New Year's day, 4:1 vs 20th Vauxhall. They will be without two suspended players here – that's why I'm staking only three units, but I'm definately staking them. Very nice odds.

Gainsborough are currently 15th, they're one of the three worst away outfits in the league (2-2-6, 11:23), they have two defeats in a row and they're traditionally awful away at Barrow. A year ago, it was 3:0 for Barrow. Two years ago, it was 3:1 to Barrow. This season, it was 1:1 at Gainsborough. Gainsborough were without a league win for three and a half months, then managed to beat Boston and Hucknall away from home (barrowly, both were 1:0 wins), but then lost two (I'm talking about strong handicap defeats here) in a row again, to the very same Boston and to Southport (0:3 last Saturday). Gainsborough have a small squad, their main goal this season is to stay in this league, they lost a couple of players recently, they desperately need a striker (they just brought in some guy from Eagle Bitter United Counties League Premier Division, but the fans aren't sure will he be able to compete at this level of football), their not very succesful temporary manager just became their official manager (supporters aren't really sure why), Parker is out injured... Like I said, very nice odds.

(2.00 also at Stanleybet, Skybet and Primebet, 1.99 at 10Bet, 1.95 at Betway, Expekt, Bet24, Tipico...)

FT 4:1

CONFERENCE NORTH

Stalybridge – Harrogate 1 /DRAW NO BET (2.10 @Betway) 3 units

Incredible odds. Stalybridge have six league wins in a row and Harrogate won only once in the last five league matches. Stalybridge are currently 7th, Harrogate are 3rd, and these odds are mental. Stalybridge will lose a match soon, it's the law of the big numbers, but why now? These six wins weren't all against poor teams. They managed to beat 5th Hyde twice, home and away, they were awesome against play-off candidates Boston (3:0 at home), they were great last Saturday, away at 11th Alfreton (won 4:3). Their manager also broke the manager-of-the-month curse and they just signed striker James Dean (yes) on loan from League 2 outfit Bury once again (he returned to Bury before New Year, but he's back now and he'll be staying untill the end of the season). Not that they need another striker with Hall obviously on fire (scored all four goals at Alfreton, all together 16 goals this season, and he's now the joint best goalscorer in the league... Btw, Stalybridge players scored 20 goals in last six matches), but I don't mind really.

Harrogate aren't playing bad away from home (5-4-2), but if we look at their last 7 away matches (in all competitions), we can see only one win (at 18th Blythe, on crazy Boxing Day) and as much as four defeats. They could use a striker or two, fans would be happy with a point at in-form Stalybridge and all I can do is take this manificent DRAW NO BET. Low stakes though...

(You can improvize this DNB yourselves. Home win is 2.50 at Expekt, Bet365, Skybet, Primebet, 2.45 at Bet-at-home, 2.40 at Stanleybet, Betsafe, Gamebookers, Sportingbet, Bwin... A draw is 3.60 at StanJames, Coral, Skybet, Primebet... )

FT 3:2

- 18:19 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

08.01.2008., utorak

8.1.2008. +4.2 units

CONFERENCE SOUTH

Bishop's Stortford – Havant & Waterloovile 1 (2.05 @Sportingbet) 4 units

Havant players were the biggest non-league heroes of the Saturday when they managed to equalised at League One high-flyers Swansea in the FA Cup 3rd round proper. 1:1 gives Havant a replay on their own pitch and if they somehow manage to beat Swansea, they'll be playing away at Luton or Liverpool (!), most probably Liverpool, in the 4th round so yes, their heads must be spinning right now. Of course their FA Cup run is the most important thing at Havant right now, but it's not the only reason for taking this bet. They're traditionally awful away from home – they're currently 12th on the league table, but they're also the worst away team in the league with only one (1) win in nine (9) matches. They managed to win an away match in the league only once, in the 2nd round, back in August, at terrible hosts Dorchester. If we look at their away league matches in the last month, it's all very clear. They lost 2:4 at on/off Fisher, shared points (1:1) at struggling Bognor and, finally, ten days ago, lost 0:4 at league leaders Lewes.

Bishop's Stortford aren't the best home team this season (4-3-4, goal difference 22:19), they had an on/off season so far, but they're still play-off candidates (currently 10th, only three points less than 5th Newport) and if they manage to win a couple of times in a row, they'll be up there, challenging for a place in the Conference National next season. Their last home match was a great 4:0 win vs Cambridge City and, after losing 1:2 away at Braintree on the New Year's Day, I'm sure they very much want to take another three points against FA Cup giant-killers. Their best scorer Pearson scored in every of the last four league matches (7 goals in 4 matches) and he's currently the second best scorer of the Conference South. He also scored a hat-trick in the FA trophy match against Canvey Island a couple of weeks ago. Last year, it was 1:0 for the hosts at Bishop's Stortford. 1.90 would be fair. 2.05 I will take.

(2.06 currently at Betfair, 2.00 at StanJames, Gamebookers, Expekt, Coral, Blue Square, Bet-at-home, Paddy Power... (-0.25) is 1.85 at Pinnacle, 1.84 at 10Bet and 1.80 at Bet365...)

FT 4:1

- 22:45 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

07.01.2008., ponedjeljak

5.1.2008. -8.28 units

CONFERENCE NORTH

Redditch – Vauxhall 1 (1.91 @StanJames) 7 units

17th Redditch played great against improved, 8th Worcester a couple of days ago – won 3:0 and now they have a chance for another three points. 19th Vauxhall, who lost 1:4 at Barrow, will be without four suspended players who were all sent off in the 2:3 defeat at Telford (they had a whole squad to chose from at Barrow – didn't help obviously) – Egerton, no1 goalkeeper Murphy, standard midfielder Field and one of the best strikers in the league Taylor (who's waiting for an offer higher than 50 thousand pounds to get away from Vauxhall). They are also the worst away team in Conference North (1-1-9, goal-difference 11:33). Redditch aren't unbeatable at home (3-4-3, goal-difference 12:9) but they should beat Vauxhall without all those suspended players quite easily. They have a couple of new players (defender Daly turned out to be a great signing) and no suspension problems.

(1.91 also at Bet365 and Skybet, 1.90 at Betway and Bwin...)

FT 2:0

FA CUP

Chasetown – Cardiff OVER 2.75 (2.07 @10Bet) 5 units
Chasetown – Cardiff OVER 4 (5.10 @Bet365) 1 unit

Here we go again – well done Chasetown, you've made it all the way to the FA Cup 3rd round proper, bravo guys, but I'm afraid your journey is over. Chasetown are currently 6th in the Southern Midlands League, they're just outside the play-off zone and, if they continue to work hard, maybe we could see them in the Southern Premier league next season. They're doing fine in the league lately, four wins in last five outings, and they have already kicked out of the FA Cup a lot of teams that are above them in the pyramid (Cambridge City, Nuneaton, Team Bath and Port Vale) but this should prove to be a mission impossible. Cardiff are 11th in the Championship (that's, wait a minute, six! leagues above Southern Midlands), but they have only three points less than 6th Ipswich. Who knows, maybe we'll even see them in the Premiership next season. They have a respectable squad (everybody's heard of Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink, Robbie Fowler, on-loan Man City keeper Kasper Schmeichel...) they're solid away from home and we could see another FA Cup trashing (remember Horsham?) here, that's why I'll have an additional bet here too (that single unit is returned if exactly 4 goals are scored). Cardiff will have a whole squad to chose from except for McPhail, but I suppose their manager will field out a slightly younger squad (for instance, 17-year old Ramsey who was offered 3 million pounds by Liverpool will be in the team and Scheichel won't be between the sticks) anyway and that's just what we need here. The boys from Cardiff should score many goals in this match, but who knows, maybe they even concede and turn someone from the Chasetown squad into a local hero.

(Pinnacle offers 2.09 and Bet365 offers 2.05 for OVER 2.75, but Bet365 also offers every asian OVER you can think of – everything between OVER 1.5 for 1.18 and OVER 4.25 for 5.50...)

FT 1:3

CONFERENCE SOUTH

Eastleigh – Bath City 1 /DRAW NO BET (1.88 @10Bet) 5 units

Eastleigh played great at Basingstoke, picked up all three points after a couple of not very good results (but also very tough fixtures). This will be a tough match too, but 1.88 for DNB is something I have to take. Eastleigh lost a great winger Scannell, but another winger Marshall just joined them on loan from Grays and he was the man of the match at Basingstoke (scored a late winner). Bath City will be without standard midfielder Hogg due to his suspension and he scored twice in the last three matches (strikers Edwards and Gilroy started the season great, but now they're totally out of form). Bath City played five, let's say easy matches – won three times, shared points twice. Eastleigh is a much better team than Dorchester, Maidenhead, Weston or Bognor (all relegation candidates) and I can't see an away win here. It was 2:0 for the hosts at Bath City and it's revenge time.

(1.88 also at Pinnacle, 1.65 at Betway and you can also improvize a DRAW NO BET yourselves – Bet365 offers 2.40 and Skybet offers 2.38 for a home win and StanJames and Skybet offer 3.60 for a draw...)

FT 4:4

CONFERENCE SOUTH

Dorchester – Cambridge City 2 /DRAW NO BET (1.81 @10Bet) 5 units

Dorchester haven't won a league match for four (4!) months. They are constantly losing the most important players and I doubt they will save themselves from being relegated this season. They scored only four goals in their last six league matches and a draw here would be a big surprise – a home win would be a shock result of the day and that's why these odds can't be ignored. Take a look at the latest news from Dorchester: ''...Four players though, who won't be turning out for the county town outfit anymore are defenders Sonny Cobbs and Ryan Hill, keeper Darren Behcet and striker Dani Rodrigues. Cobbs' loan spell has ended and he returns to Brighton while Behcet has been recalled by Yeovil...''. Cambridge started the new year with a great 4:0 win vs St Albans (they have also won 2:0 away at St Albans a week ago) – Gash scored a hat-trick and he is now the 3rd best scorer in the league. They have three wins in the last four away matches (in all competitions) and should take all the points here.

(1.83 at Pinnacle, 1.70 at Betway and you can also improvize a DRAW NO BET yourselves – Bet365 and Betway offer 2.40 for an away win but you can find at least 2.38 anywhere and StanJames and Skybet offer 3.60 for a draw...)

FT 3:2

CONF SOUTH/RYMAN DOUBLE: Hampton & Richmond – Welling 1 @1.62 & Chelmsford – Hastings 1 @1.25 (2.025 @Skybet) 5 units

Eight league matches with no win for Welling, four goals scored in those eight matches (they were without a gol for six straight matches and then scored two at home vs poor Thurrock and another two away at struggling Fisher – they shared points vs Thurrock and lost at Fisher in the end), their inexperienced manager is very close to getting fired, terrible results against terrible teams lately – what can I do, the odds are just too freakin' high. On the other hand, if we look at the last eight Hampton's matches, we see five wins, two draws and a new year's day defeat at poor Sutton who will fight for every point from now on, I tell you. Hampton are a great team this season, they surprised everyone including me, and they are very good at home. Really can't see nothing but a strong home win here.

Three defeats in a row for Hastings, three wins in a row for Chelmsford who are the top of the table with only two points more than Hendon – they're motivated enough. Hastings will be without their most dangerous scorer Adams and also Olorunda due to suspensions, and a couple of injured players too. A handicap win should happen here, but no one is offering one...

(1.96 at Bet365 and Digibet, 1.92 at Bwin, 1.91 at Paddy Power, only 1.79 at Stanleybet...)

FT 4:0 / 1:1

SOUTHERN PREMIER

Hemel Hempstead – King's Lynn 2 (2.20 @Sportingbet) 4 units

Hemel Hempstead are a strange team. They're always in or just outside the play-off zone (currently they're 6th), they're one of the two best away outfits in the league (along with King's Lynn), but at home – they're terrible, only Corby are worse. 2-4-4 at home really doesn't look good if you want to promote, does it? A couple of days ago, they even lost away from home, at poor, struggling, 20th Cirencester and they haven't won a match in more than a month. King's Lynn are the league leaders, Sedgmore decided to stay, but they have only two points more than Halesowen so more points are welcome anytime. Away from home, they're great (7-2-3, goal-difference 20:10) and they lost their last match more than a month ago. Hemel will be without their defender Sweeney due to suspension – btw they have serious discipline problems – the defeat at Cirencester was their 5th match in a row with one of the players sent off. It was 2:2 at King's Lynn last Saturday, but last time these teams played at Hemel, it was 5:1 for King's Lynn. I don't expect such a high win, but I wouldn't protest if it's meant to be. And yes, I just found out that Hemel just lost probably their best player (''...Our best player against Bashley and the only player thats got pace in our team Steve Sinclair has left. Losing Sinclair is a serious blow. The forwards who replaced Thomas and Sippetts are not good enough and are lightweight...') and another couple of players too (''... Chris Dillon was recalled from his loan spell by Histon following the transfer of Cliff Akurang from the Cambridgeshire side, defender Kameron Abbassi who joined HHTFC this season has joined Halesowen Town, the popular winger Steve Sinclair has joined Barton Rovers and midfielder Dwain Williams has joined Northwood but on a dual registration as Northwood are in the Ryman League...'').

(2.20 also at Bet365, 2.10 at Skybet, Bet-at-home, Paddy Power and Digibet, 2.00 at Stanleybet and Bwin, 1.89 at Pinnacle for (-0.25)...)

FT 4:2

RYMAN DOUBLE: Folkestone – Leyton 1 @1.40 & Hendon – Carshalton 1 @1.50 (2.10 @Sportingbet) 3 units

Folkestone started the season as an away team, but things have changed recently – Folkestone have two home wins in a row, they apparently played good even at mighty Ramsgate, and they should nail the third in a row against poor Leyton who currently look like Slough from last season – the most important players left the club and and they're the bottom of the table, with only 15 points out of 23 matches and goal-difference 27:58 (5:25 in the last four matches!).

Carshalton play awful away from home (2-0-7, second worst away team in the Ryman Premier) and Hendon are the biggest positive surprise of the league so far. They're second but they're still very modest about their promotion chances – they almost managed to pick up a point at mighty Wimbledon a few days ago – they were losing 0:3 and the match ended 3:2 for the hosts. It was 2:0 for Hendon at Carshalton in October. Carshalton won their last away match in September at East Thurrock, they have a very young squad and probably the lowest budget in the league. O'Sullivan and Haule scored 28 goals together so far for Hendon and I except at least a couple of goals from the home team. After three home draws at Hendon, a win is a must.

(2.10 also at Bet365, 2.01 at Paddy Power, 1.97 at Stanleybet, 1.96 at Bwin, 1.95 at Digibet, 1.91 at Skybet...)

FT 2:0 / 0:5

CONF NORTH DOUBLE: Hyde – Blyth 1 @1.45 & Boston – Leigh RMI 1 @1.60 (2.32 @Bwin) 3 units

Hyde have 8-1-3 at home and they're dying to get back on track. Blyth will be without two suspended players – left back Boyle and Gildea. They're not playing good away from home (2-3-5, goal-difference 8:14) and they lost their last two league matches. Hyde are also having a bad mini-run, picking up only one point out of nine in their last three fixtures, but they have a stronger squad than Blyth and they're playing at home this time. Leigh RMI have 1-2-8 away from home (goal-difference 8:21), four defeats in the last five matches and they're definately one of the biggest relegation candidates. Boston are one of the best home teams in the league (6-2-3, goal-difference 21:12), they have two nice wins in a row and should pick up all the points here.

(Same odds at Betway, Primebet and 10Bet, 2.27 at Stanleybet, 2.26 at Blue Square, Coral and Skybet...)

FT 2:4 / 5:1

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