skeeve picks (and wins!)

27.11.2007., utorak

27.11.2007. -4 units

CONF SOUTH

Bath City – Hayes & Yeading 1 (1.73 @Blue Square) 4 units

I wrote a lot about Hayes & Yeading already and we've had Bath City bets already too. Bath City are currently 5th (played a match less and have only one point less than 3rd Newport), they're serious play-off candidates, they had some tough matches up untill now and were great against basically all the biggest title candidates (1:1 away at 7th Bromley, 2:0 at home vs 8th Eastleigh, 2:0 at home vs 6th Hampton, 1:1 at home and 3:2 away vs 3rd Newport, 0:0 at home vs league leaders Eastbourne and, in the last league round, 4:0 at home vs mighty, 4th Bishop's Stortford, they didn't play only vs 2nd Lewes). This Saturday, they won 2:0 at home vs 15th Thurrock in the FA Trophy cup (Thurrock are at this moment a much better team than Hayes) and I think this is going to be a strong, probably a handicap win too (Blue Square offers 3.10, Stanleybet offers 2.74 and Digibet offers 2.50 for a 'normal' handicap – I'd definately take it if it was Saturday), but I'll be as careful as ever and only bet on a normal win. It's midweek, people, we simply have to keep low-profile on a Tuesday night in these leagues. Bath City have a great keeper in Evans who conceded only 7 goals in 11 league matches he played in and they welcome back a couple of players who were injured recently.

Hayes & Yeading are currently 16th, but I see them going further down. Their November was awful, but September and October were only a little bit better and that's only because of easier opponents. This season, they managed to win only four times (away at relegation candidates Welling, bottom of the table Sutton, mid¬-table Braintree and at home vs Fisher who are really struggling lately) and they lost all the away matches at serious promotion candidates. This month, they lost 2:4 at home vs 8th Eastleigh and 0:3 away at 19th Bognor Regis, and shared points (3:3) at home vs bottom of the table Sutton. A month ago, they also lost 0:1 away at 18th Maidenhead in the FA Cup 4th qualification round so it's three defeats, one draw vs bottom of the table outfit and a home FA Trophy win vs Witham, a team from two leagues below (and even they managed to score twice vs Hayes) in their last five matches. Earlier this month, they lost two important players that returned to Wycombe, and then Sackey and Jones also left the club. Their only latest recruit is midfielder Marwa who came on loan from second to bottom St Albans and they have seven points less than Hayes (says a lot really). After Scott returned from his injury (he's been out for quite a while and he's still not 100% fit), Palmer moved to the bench and that's fine with me because Palmer really looked like a good striker in all the match highlights – Scott did score four goals in his last two matches, but it was against poor outfits. Hayes conceded 12 goals in their last four matches, only the biggest relegation candidates in the league scored less than them this season and Bath's defence is by far the best in the league. Almost everything going in one direction here and these odds look great, because fair odds would be 1.50 max if you ask me.

(1.70 at Stanleybet, 1.67 at Stan James, Paddy Power and Bet365, 1.65 elsewhere... Pinnacle offers 1.98 for (-0.75)...)

FT 2:2

- 23:58 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

24.11.2007., subota

24.11.2007. +5.74 units

FA TROPHY

Eastleigh – Weston-super-Mare 1 (1.85 @Sportingbet) 6 units

Eastleigh had a real reinnasance recently but home defeat to Bromley shocked them for sure – after that they only managed to share points away at Cambridge. But, they have a solid team, they're playing at home and I'm sure they want to get back on track as soon as possible. They had a nice FA Cup run too – why not repeat it in the FA Trophy? Weston-super-Mare have four defeats in their last five league matches (their goal-difference in these five matches is 4:10, but they scored three at St Albans) - all of them were home defeats and one of them was to – Eastleigh. It was 3:0 for the visitors and I expect a similar result here, for Eastleigh of course. Weston's only positive recunt result was an away win at poor St Albans, but that's another category. Btw, these two outfits played at Eastleigh also this season (back in September) – it was 3:2 for Eastleigh and that was even before Baird took over.

Eastleigh will miss a couple of injured players (the most important ones, like probably the best non-league striker Forbes, are fit), including their no1 goalkeeper Pullen due to his operation, but I think Eastleigh will manage to pull a strong, probably a handicap win even without him (youngster Kitteridge just joined from Reading and he'll probably do a good job – it's Reading). Weston's manager wants (and needs) to srengthen the squad after some injuries (they will miss three injured players tomorrow) and leavings, but instead of that, they lost another two players a couple of days ago – midfielder Harley to a Conference National (or Blue Square Premier, if you like) outfit Exeter and an attacking midfielder Holgate to Eastleigh (he will be cup-tied, but nevertheless, he won't play for the away team) – a major blow for sure. Besided Holgate, Eastleigh just brought in a central defender Goodhind on loan from Ebbsfleet too.

(1.83 at StanJames, 1.80 at Bet-at-home, Bet365, Blue Square, Gamebookers, PartyBets and Skybet, 1.77 currently at Pinnacle...)

FT 4:2

FA TROPHY/UNIBOND DOUBLE: Wimbledon – Northwood 1 @1.44 & Fleetwood - Ashton 1 @1.50 (2.15 @Gamebookers) 5 units

Northwood are struggling in the Ryman North (currently 18th) and mighty Wimbledon are finally flying high in the league above, Ryman Premier (currently 3rd). Time spent on writing about difference in quality here could be spent in so many other ways... Northwood's latest league result is a 0:2 home defeat to 13th Aveley – they did manage to beat Hornchurch in the FA Trophy 2nd qualifying round, but that was at home and against a side that's struggling in the Ryman Premier currently. Wimbledon are a different kind of story – they trashed Ryman Premier league leaders Chelmsford 4:0 in the 2nd qualifying round of this competition and they're taking the FA Trophy very seriously.

Fleetwood are currently the in-form team in the Unibond Premier and Ashton ar struggling – they're currently 14th, but they have only four points more and three matches more than 19th Kendal (relegation zone). Fleetwood are one of the best home teams in this league (5-1-1, goal-difference 16:8) and Ashton are one of the worst away teams (1-4-2, 7:10). Fleetwood have four wins in a row (1:0 at home vs 15th Lincoln, 2:1 at home vs Radcliffe in the Challenge Trophy cup, 2:1 away at 20th North Ferriby, 7:3 at home vs Warrington in the League Cup) and they brought in two players in the last few days – winger Watt from Southport and striker Wright from Kendal who scored in his first match for Fleetwood away at North Ferriby and than three more goals vs Warrington this midweek. Ashton brought in two players recently, but two important players also left the club. They did manage to share points away at mid-table Ossett (0:0), but in their last league match they lost 1:5 at home to 18th Leek. Bloody awful and you must know that Leek are really struggling with injuries lately.

(2.15 also at Skybet and PartyBets, 2.10 at Bet365, 1.95 at Bwin...)

FT 2:1 / 3:0

RYMAN PREMIER

Staines – Chelmsford 2 (1.83 @Skybet) 4 units

I just saw the whole Staines – Stockport match (FA Cup 1st round proper, 1:1 FT, Staines won after the penalties thanx to some amazing saves by their keeper Allaway) and took this bet after the first 90 minutes. Some of the Staines' players barely walked in the second half of regular time, managed to keep a clean sheet in extra-time (again thanx to Allaway) and now they face league leaders Chelmsford, only 40 hours after the end of this FA Cup thriller. Most of them even had to go to work today and if we add some hours spent sleep and celebration, I don't think they could recuperate for mighty Chelmsford who had a midweek off.

I finally saw Staines strikers and wingers in a whole match and yes, they are quick and good (Nwokeji looks like a really good player), but they also could've condeded a lot of goals if Allaway didn't have a day from a fairytale. I think Stockport had about 30 shots on goal (half of it on target) and I don't think Alloway has the luck for having two magnificent matches in a row. If he had, he wouldn't be playing in the Ryman Premier after being sold to Leeds for 200 000 pounds five years ago, would he?

I'm joking but I really think this is as close to a public bet as a non-league match could be – the odds are dropping as hell (basically no more value if you can't bet at Stanleybet) and anything but a Chelmsford win would surprise me here, but it's only four units for me. If the Staines – Stockport match was played on Monday, like it should've (it was postponed due to heavy rain), I wouldn't take this bet. But, after extra-time, penalties and an emotional win against a League 2 opponent (three leagues above Ryman Premier), I'm taking it.

Staines' pitch is one of the best in the league and that can only help Chelmsford players who are all top-quality, at least for this level of football. The Staines – Stockport FA Cup match was broadcasted live on Sky Sports and Sky even provided some means of draining the pitch. Chelmsford players are very good, fast and physical, they'll probably win the league this season and should win this six-pointer against a tired side that gave it's 120% in the 120 minutes plus penaltes against a League 2 outfit in the greatest Cup competition in the world. Seems logical to take this bet when I put it like this, right?

(Terrific 2.25 for away win at Stanleybet, 1.75 or less elsewhere...)

FT 2:2

UNIBOND PREMIER

Matlock – Marine 2 (2.63 @StanJames) 3 units

Marine are one of the in-form teams in the Unibond Premier, unlike on/off Matlock outfit. The odds look great (value indeed) because Matlock will be missing no less than three strikers for this match (in-form Cropper who scored both goals last Saturday, five goals in last three matches, Barraclough who scored eight goals already this season and Hall who scored four goals – Taylor will probably play, but he's not 100% fit and he scored the least goals of all the mentioned forwards this season) and two defenders are out injured too. It was 3:1 for the hosts at Marine two weeks ago and I don't think Matlock's revenge plan stands much chance – at least not as much as the bookies think. After all, Matlock lost two of their three last home matches (0:1 to 9th Ossett and 1:2 to 3rd Gateshead in the FA Trophy) and a home win would be a shock result here if you ask me.

After the defeat at Marine, Matlock lost away at 8th Eastwood in the League Cup and then finally managed to win a match, away at 15th Lincoln, but Lincoln are without a manager and currently sitting on the 15th place. Marine won there 2:0 also a couple of weeks ago. Last season, it was 2:1 for Marine at Matlock and I expect a similar result here. Mariners have some great away results this season – they won at 2nd Fleetwood, 11th Ilkeston, 18th Leek and 15th Lincoln, shared points at bottom of the table Frickley (back in August though) and 12th Prescot, and lost only at league leaders Witton (back in August), 8th Eastwood (in September)and 4th Guiseley.

(2.70 at Stanleybet, 2.63 also at Skybet, 2.60 at Gamebookers, Paddy Power and PartyBets, 2.55 at Sportingbet...Pinnacle offers incredible 2.10 for (0) or DRAW NO BET...)

FT 2:3

RYMAN PREMIER

Billericay – Margate 1 (2.30 @Sportingbet) 3 units

Both of these outfits are underperforming this season and currently have some serious injury problems – Margate did have a turbulent summer that saw a lot of players leave the club, but Billericay were (and still are, they're second to bottom currently, but they have only seven points less and played four matches less than 6th Maidstone who were themselves struggling near the relegation zone a few weeks ago) serious play-off candidates. Billericay were great in the FA Cup 1st round proper against Swansea (lost the match in the end though) and after that played horrible away at third to bottom Ashford, but they had no less than seven players out missing or suspended. Some of them are coming back into the team now and Billericay are playing at home. Billericay's last home match was a 4:0 win against Maidstone.

Margate really aren't the best away team (they won only one of their eight away matches) and they were equally lousy last Saturday and they were playing at home, against one of the worst visiting teams in the league – Maidstone (lost 3:4). They didn't even manage to win at poor Folkestone and equally poor Heybridge a month ago so I can't see them taking the points here. Billericay won their home matches against Margate last season and the season before that. Very nice odds.

(Pinnacle offers 1.76 for (0) or DRAW NO BET – sounds great... Stanleybet, StanJames, Paddy Power and Bet365 all offer 2.25 for a home win, 2.20 elsewhere...)

FT 0:1

FA TROPHY

Vauxhall – Hyde 2 (2.10 @Gamebookers) 3 units

Vauxhall (currently 16th) aren't very good at home (3-3-3, goal-difference 16:20) and they have the worst goal-difference in Conference North (24:44 in 17 matches, they conceded most goals in the league by far). If we look at their last five league matches, they have three defeats (1:3 at home vs 5th Telford, 1:5 at 10th Boston, 2:3 at 4th Southport), one draw (1:1 at home vs poor Worcester who are really struggling lately) and one win (3:2 at home vs 19th Solihull).

Hyde (currently 2nd) is the best away team in the league (6-1-3, goal-difference 23:10) and they scored most goals in the league by far – 42 in 18 matches. The start of November wasn't good for Hyde – they lost 0:1 at 6th Nuneaton and after that, they also lost to 1:3 at home to 4th Southport. That obviously shocked them, but also mobilized them – after that, they picked up six points in just three days (4:1 at improved 20th Hucknall, 3:0 at home vs 19th Solihull). They recently welcomed back a couple of injured players and Simm is on fire, scoring three goals in their last two matches. And yes, Seddon and Tipton are both finally fit too.

Pinnacle's odds for OVER 2.5 are 1.92 at this moment and that is probably the value bet of the day, but we agreed not to include Pinnacle odds in official previews and statistics and only Pinnacle offers OVER/UNDER option for this match. Hyde's win should happen here too though.

These two outfits already played a league match this season – it was 6:3 (!) for the home team at Hyde.

(2.10 also at Bet-at-home, Bet365, PartyBets and Skybet... 1.96 for (-0.25) at Pinnacle, sounds very nice...)

FT 1:0

- 18:29 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

18.11.2007., nedjelja

17.11.2007. +20.85 units

CONFERENCE SOUTH

Dorchester – Hampton & Richmond 2 (2.25 @Coral) 7 units

Dorchester (currently 19th) are really struggling at the moment, there were some comings and goings lately, didn't help really. These two outfits played a match this Tuesday also, in the Setanta Shield Cup, and Hampton won 5:2 at home. But, Dorchester are even worse at home (this season 1-2-5, last season 6-2-12) than away so this is monster value indeed. Dorchester won their last league match two months ago and after that, they have two draws (at home vs fellow strugglers Bognor Regis and Welling) and six defeats. Terrible form.

Hampton & Richmond are doing fine – in fact, better than fine. They're currently 5th and that means they're in the play-off zone, and they are traditionally strong away from home (their pitch isn't in the best shape), not to mention they have the same squad as last season (when they were the champions of Ryman Premier) so they all know each other. They lost their last league match two months ago and after that they have two draws (both at home, vs Maidenhead and Bishop's Stortford) and three wins – two of them away from home (2:1 at Basingstoke and 3:0 at Havant – their manager even rested five players for that match).

Hampton's manager Devonshire did a great job and after losing 0:3 in the FA Cup 1st qualifying round (at home vs League 2 outfit Dagenham & Redbridge, so the defeat was kinda expected, but they apparently played very well for most of the match and they missed their best scorer Yaku who is now back in the team), I think they have what it takes to quickly bounce back and return to their winning ways. In fact, they already bounced back, in the Setanta Shield, against the very same Dorchester and I don't think Dorchester's revenge plan stands much chance here.

Dorchester will miss their standard defenders Brown and Simpson due to suspensions and their fans spent most of the Tuesday's match calling for the resignation of their manager. Bet of the day for sure, when it comes to value.

(2.27 at Betfair currently, 2.25 also at Blue Square and Skybet, 2.20 at Bwin and Betway, only 2.10 at Stanleybet. Pinnacle offers incredible 2.06 for (-0.25)...)

FT 0:1

RYMAN PREMIER

Hastings – Wimbledon 2 (2.10 @Bwin) 6 units

Great odds here – Wimbledon finally started scoring regularly and they would've got all three points at Tonbridge (that would've been their 5th win in a row) if they had some luck with goalkeepers. No1 keeper Little got injured in the match before, against Hornchurch (Wimbledon managed to win that match 1:0) and after that, Wimbledon brought in Fulham's keeper Brooks-Meade on a month's loan but he also got injured and had to leave the pitch in 63th minute. Tonbridge managed to score an equaliser after reserve keeper Symon came on and Wimbledon had to be content with a point after all. Now Wimbledon brought in another keeper on-loan, Knowles from Conference National outfit Grays. Wimbledon's latest permanent signing is high-flying striker Jon Main who came from Tonbridge, he was Wimbledon's manager's long-time target. I see both De Bolla and Main on the scoring sheet tomorrow.

Hastings have four defeats in a row, they lost their central defender and long-time captain Ray recently and now they face mighty Wimbledon. One of these four defeats was a home defeat to poor Leyton last Saturday. Hastings players had three shots on target and lost the match 0:1 and that's Leyton, people. They will miss a couple of injured players too. Wimbledon could play with a local junkie between the sticks and they'd still have better chances than 2.10.

(2.10 also at Bet-at-home, Bet365, Gamebookers and Skybet. 2.00 at Stanleybet. Pinnacle offers terrific 1.84 for (-0.25)...)

FT 1:3

CONFERENCE SOUTH

Weston-super-Mare – Lewes 2 (2.25 @StanJames) 5 units

Very nice odds, I was expecting 2.00 max. Weston are currently 10th but I'm sure they'll end this season much nearer the relegation zone. They had a nice run against relegation candidates but now they have three home defeats in a row and their goal-difference in these three matches is 0:8. I really think Lewes will prove to be a much better team here. Weston are out of both FA Cup and Setanta Shield Cup and their supporters don't give 'em much chance here. Neither do I.

Lewes are currently 2nd and if Eastbourne loses or draws against Thurrock and they manage to win at Weston, they'll be league leaders again. 0:3 defeat at Eastleigh shocked them, sure, after that they only managed to share points at home vs Maidenhead, yes, but after that they bounced back in style – they managed to beat Conference National outfit Grays in the FA Cup 4th qualifying round and then they trashed Sutton 4:0 in the league. League 2 outfit Mansfield did manage to beat them comfortably in the FA Cup 1st round proper, but after that Lewes bounced back one more time, only two days after the FA Cup defeat – they won 3:2 at Havant & Waterloovile in the Setanta Shield.

(Bwin also offers 2.25, Bet-at-home, Betway, Blue Square, Expekt, Gamebookers, Paddy Power all offer 2.20, Stanleybet offers 2.10 and Pinnacle offers terrific 1.76 for (0) or DRAW NO BET...)

FT 1:2

CONFERENCE SOUTH

Bromley – Newport OVER 3.5 (3.25 @Blue Square) 5 units

I don't have to say much about this bet really. Bromley (currently 8th) has eight league matches in a row that produced at least four goals (scored 20 and conceded 18 in those eight matches) and when you take a look at their match highlights, it's obvious that we again have a nice value bet here. After a couple of awful results, they bounced back with a fantastic 4:1 win away at high-flying Eastleigh and this time they face another play-off candidates, Newport (currently 4th). They brought in a couple of new players recently – midfielder I'Anson and winger Davis. They did concede only one goal vs Eastleigh, but Eastleigh simply had a terrible day – Bromley's defense still seems really shaky and they will probably concede a couple of goals here.

Newport started the season as an UNDER team, but after the first couple of rounds, started to score more and to concede a bit more too. Now they have five league matches in a row that produced at least four goals – they scored 13 and conceded 10 goals in those five matches. All in all, I'll be glad to risk another five units here.

(Stanleybet offers 2.42 for OVER 3.5, 2.74 for 4-6 GOALS option and 20.8 for 7+GOALS option. You know what to do. Pinnacle offers 1.95 for OVER 2.75 – sounds great...)

FT 2:2

CONFERENCE NORTH

Barrow – Telford 2 (2.10 @Coral) 5 units

I thought about this bet for quite a long time, thought and thought, and then I saw Telford – Kettering match highlights (Telford lost 0:1, it was their only defeat in last five matches) and definately decided to take it. Telford's league results have been great lately (they're currenlty 3rd) and it appears they can lose only to the teams that are above them on the league table (Kettering, Harrogate, Hyde). Telford were a better team even against mighty Kettering, but the ball just wouldn't go into the goal and when it did, the referee called for a foul that didn't exist – I saw the match highlights, this isn't some Telford fan talking. Telford brought in another player these days – scorer Husbands on loan from League 2 outfit Macclesfield. Husbands himself could make a difference in this match, but Telford have a couple of other players who know how to play football and they all know each other very good – they're playing together for quite some time.

Barrow just lost their manager, they're currently 20th and a draw would be a shocking result here, let alone a home win. I really thought they could snatch three points vs bottom of the table Hinckley two weeks ago (didn't bet on it in the end because of some suspensions), they were playing at home and all, but no, they lost 0:1. I think they may put up a good fight, but Telford's quality should prove crucial in any case.

(2.05 at Bwin and Betway, 2.00 at StanJames, Gamebookers and Bet-at-home... Pinnacle offers 1.80 for (-0.25), sounds nice... Only 1.90 at Stanleybet...)

FT 4:0

UNIBOND PREMIER

Ilkeston – Gateshead 2 (2.00 @StanJames) 5 units

Well, it seems like everyone agrees with this 2.00 (you can find these odds at every single bookie except Bet-at-home who decided to go with 1.95) except me. IMO, max odds for away win should be 1.80 so I simply have to take another 5 units bet.

Why this most definately can't be a 2.00? Because Ilkeston just lost their best scorer Ross who scored five goals in his last four matches for Ilkeston and 11 goals all together this season, including a winner at Gateshead. Yes, these two outfits played a match already this season, at Gateshead, and it was a shocking 2:1 win for the guests from Ilkeston, but that can just add to the Gateshead's players' motivation in this match. After all, Ilkeston are still one of the worst home teams in the league (2-2-5) and Gateshead are promotion candidates (currently 2nd).

Gateshead have one defeat, one draw and seven wins in the last 30 days and after last Saturday's home defeat to Worksop (it was only their 3rd defeat in 32 games since Bogie took over as manager), I'm sure they want to get back on track. They were solid at home vs Newcastle Blue Star in the League Cup this Wednesday (won 2:0, hit the post twice) and I think Ilkeston will miss Ross much more than they think.

(You can find these 2.00 odds everywhere, including Stanleybet... Pinnacle offers terrific 1.92 for (-0.25)...)

FT 2:0

CONFERENCE SOUTH

Basingstoke – St Albans 2 /DRAW NO BET (3.20 @Betway) 1 unit
Braintree – Bognor Regis 2 /DRAW NO BET (3.20 @Betway) 1 unit
Hayes & Yeading – Sutton 2 /DRAW NO BET (3.20 @Betway) 1 unit

I'm pretty sure that at least one of these away teams will be getting all three points tomorrow and, honestly, I can't imagine all of the home teams winning. I don't think it's necessary for me to write essays about every team, so I'll keep it short. Basingstoke have two defeats in a row and St Albans are dying for a win. They proved that they can be quite a team on their day when they snatched all three points at Bishop's Stortford and Bromley and I think they have a good enough chance here. Braintree have four wins in a row, but it's all against relegation candidates and they're bound to lose soon. Bognor Regis started to play some football finally, they were great against Hayes and I think they could be very dangerous here and maybe even win, yes. Hayes & Yeading are terrible at the moment and this is the best possible chance for poor Sutton to win a match finally. Sutton have nine defeats in a row, but they surely know that if they manage to stop Palmer, a win is not mission imposible here. After all, Hayes also have two handicap defeats in a row and they're nothing to be afraid of. You can see all the odds here in case you want to improvize DRAW NO BETs yourself:

http://www.oddsoddsodds.com/goto/odds/s1/g391406/m1/d0/
http://www.oddsoddsodds.com/goto/odds/s1/g391408/m1/d0/
http://www.oddsoddsodds.com/goto/odds/s1/g391414/m1/d0/

FT 3:1 / 3:2 / 3:3

- 02:31 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

14.11.2007., srijeda

14.11.2007. +5.64 units

CONFERENCE NORTH

Boston – Hucknall OVER 3.5 (2.88 @Blue Square) 3 units

I don't know, Betway obviously lost some money two days ago (3.25 for OVER 3.5 on the Eastleigh – Bromley match) so they decided they wouldn't offer that option for this match. Okay, at least Blue Square still has this option for all the Conference North & South matches and we're going to stake only three units this time, so that they continue offering that option for all the matches. Well, you know me, it's just a silly manifest really – the real truth is that this is a midweek match (and midweek matches often go mad), that I was a bit more confident on Saturday (it really would've been a major surprise if Eastleigh – Bromley match didn't produce four goals) and that these odds are worse than Betway's odds on Saturday. So, 3 units this time.

Boston are currently 7th – they scored 28 and conceded 21 goal in 15 league matches. They conceded more goals than any other top-8 outfit and only three teams in the entire league scored more than them (Kettering, Hyde and Southport). They have a couple of new players and they were great two days ago when they beat Vauxhall 5:1. Their last five league matches produced at least four goals and they're one of the best home outfits in the league (they're yet to lose a home match). Just look at their home matches in the last month and a half – 4:1 vs Buxton (in the FA Cup), 2:2 vs mid-table Worcester, 4:1 vs struggling Hinckley, 5:1 vs struggling Vauxhall. I expect a similar result in this match, but who knows, maybe Hucknall even surprise them and steal a point or three. I wouldn't bet on Boston here (the best odds are 1.67 and I think Hucknall will be up for it and score a goal or two, maybe steal a point – after all, Bosoton's defender Crane won't be playing again), but OVER 3.5 is a must. Fact: Hucknall have nothing to lose in this match and I'm sure they won't be defending their goal for the whole 90 minutes.

Hucknall brought in and lost a lot of players recently so I guess the new team is still getting used to play with each other, they have a new goalkeeper and they will miss standard midfielder Robinson due to suspension. They're currently 20th (in the relegation zone) with just one point more than bottom of the table Hinckley – they scored 20 goals and conceded 33 goals in 16 league matches (only Vauxhall conceded more). Let's take a look at Hucknall's away matches, shall we?

2:3 defeat at promotion candidates Kettering, 1:2 defeat at struggling Barrow, 1:4 defeat at mid-table Gainsborough, 1:2 defeat at play-off wanna-be's Burscough, 0:2 defeat at struggling Leigh RMI, 0:5 defeat at promotion candidates Southport and, finally, 3:0 win at mid-table Stalybridge (this Saturday, they shared points at home vs struggling Solihul Moors, they even had a 2:1 lead – I believed they could take all three points but no, the match ended 2:2). What can we see here? First of all, their away matches at promotion candidates (Kettering 2:3, Southport 0:5) both produced five goals. Second, even when they lose, they usually score. Third and very interesting, almost all of their midweek matches produced five goals (the only exception was away at struggling, 21st Leigh RMI when they lost only 0:2 – makes sense because Leigh RMI is one of the four outfits that score the least goals in this league). 2:3 at Kettering, 1:4 at Gainsborough, 5:0 at Worcester. What can I say, I'll definately risk three units and stake am extra couple of Euros on a 7+GOALS option at my local bookie Stanleybet (@20.8 again).

p.s.: There' s one more thing I just discovered – it shouldn't change much regarding this bet, in fact it could only help us.

''...Boston United are facing a fresh crisis after it emerged the Pilgrims fielded an ineligible player earlier in the season. The player believed to be Guadeloupe-born midfielder Ludovic Quistin, stands accused of taking part in three matches without international clearance. Boston general manager John Blackwell said: ''We don't want to jeapordise the hearing so we aren't commenting at the moment''...''

So, some points could be deducted, but I can see that going in two directions – either the points will be deducted and Boston's defense will probably be a bit more shaky because the players will be dissapointed with the outcome (strikers should score plenty vs Hucknall's defense anyhow), either the points won't be deducted and the players will use the whole case as an extra motivation to go on the pitch and score some goals.

(Stanleybet offers 2.42 for OVER 3.5, 2.74 for 4-6 GOALS option and 20.8 for 7+ GOALS option – ideal bet for some pocket change... Pinnacle offers terrific 1.95 for OVER 2.75 too...)

FT 2:3

- 22:52 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

13.11.2007., utorak

13.11.2007. -3 units

SOUTHERN PREMIER DOUBLE: King's Lynn – Corby 1 @1.40 & Chippenham – Cirencester 1 @1.65 (2.31 @Sportingbet) 3 units

Corby aren't the worst away team (2-3-1, goal difference 5:5), but they played their last away match on October 6th (lost 0:3 at 10th Clevedon) and later in October, they lost their best player, midfielder Towers, and scorer Miller. They brought in experienced scorer Jackson recently to replace Miller but he obviously wasn't wearing his scoring shoes this Saturday, when Corby lost at home to 13th Merthyr 0:1. In fact, when I take a look at their away matches, they're really nothing to be afraid of – they won at 21st Hitchin and 12th Halesowen and shared points at 16th Cirencester, 5th Chippenham (back in September) and 6th Bashley (also back in September). They even struggled away at Barton Rovers from league below in the FA Cup and had to do a replay couple of days later – won that, but now they're out of both FA Cup and FA Trophy. In the FA Trophy, they lost in the away replay at Evesham, also from league below.

Title candidates King's Lynn brought in a couple of new players last month, they destroyed my bet winning at Billericay (they had a lot of players out injured, but they managed to win 3:1 nevertheless) in the FA Trophy replay and now they welcome back a couple of players who were injured (some of them are still out though). King's Lynn are the best home team in the league – they won all three matches and I can't see them losing this one. It's midweek after all (they don't have to travel for this match and, unlike Corby, they had a free weekend) and they're infront of their fans. And, yes, these two outfits already played this season – it was 2:0 for King's Lynn at Corby. Corby's fans, btw, are not in the best mood – according to them, the players show no heart, no passion, nothing. Let's hope they can continue that way – at least for now. Last year it was 2:1 for King's Lynn both in the league home match and in the Errea Cup home match.

Chippenham lost all three points on Saturday in the last couple of minutes – they had a 1:0 lead up untill 87th minute but then conceded two and lost a match (they're blaming the referee, obviously). But, their opponents were league leaders Hemel Hempstead and now they face 16th Cirencester. A much easier task – I hope they really want to get back on track as soon as possible. I would if I were them. Hemel match was their first home defeat this season (Chippenham are currently 5th) and they shouldn't have much problem here.

Cirencester (currently 16th, but with just three points more than bottom of the table Cheshunt) are one of the three worst away teams in the league (1-2-3, goal-difference 5:9). They even lost at bottom of the table Cheshunt 0:2 a week ago. They did manage to win at home vs 15th Tiverton this Saturday, but that was home, that's Tiverton and, after all, that wasn't an easy win (3:2, they had a 3:0 lead). They're out of both FA Cup (lost at home to league rivals, 10th Clevedon) and FA Trophy (lost away at Cinderford from league below). This win against Tiverton was their first positive result after four straight defeats and I think they're ready for another defeat now. After all, their midweek results so far have been terrible and they're one of the relegation candidates this season. They were second to bottom last season, but managed to stay in the league because of bankrupts in other non-league clubs and Wealdstone's move to Ryman Premier.

(2.26 at StanJames, 2.20 at Paddy Power, 2.15 at Skybet... Stanleybet offers incredible 2.77 so the potential profit for all of us with Stanleybet in our neighbourhoof is even better... But, 2.31 is also okay – it's not so much a value bet, but it's a fair bet that should land nicely)

FT 0:1 / 2:0

- 22:50 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

10.11.2007., subota

10.11.2007. +13.85 units

FA CUP

(-0.75) Team Bath – Chasetown 1 (2.00 @Bet365) 6 units

I wrote about Team Bath a lot lately – every time I placed a bet on them, they won, and now I again see some value in these odds. After all, Team Bath have a historical chance here – they were the first university outfit to reach FA Cup 1st round proper in 2002 and now they have a massive chance for a place in the FA Cup 2nd round proper and possibly a match against some of the legendary english clubs from the highest leagues.

Team Bath have seven wins in a row and knowing they're a strong outfit that already kicked Conference South outfit Weston out of the FA Cup, I can only hope for no surprises and a strong home win.

Chasetown are having a memorable season in the league below Team Bath's Southern Premier – they also kicked out a Conference South outfit out of the FA Cup already, but it was only Cambridge City who are really struggling recently. Chasetown are playing really good, but the quantity of matches is obviously starting to be a problem – they lost at Radcliffe Borough in the FA Trophy this Tuesday and Radcliffe are currently bottom of the table in the Unibond North (Chasetown are 4th in the Southern Midlands – it's the the same level of english football, 8th leagues).

So yeah, both of these teams are giant-killers in the FA Cup this season but Team Bath is a much more proffesional, responsible and stronger outfit and Chasetown had a midweek match that left them frustrated and injury-worried. A nice value bet.

(Okay, it's the FA Cup 1st round so you can find this match everywhere. Bet365 offers2.00 for (-0.75) which means we earn 3 units in case of a normal Team Bath win and 6 units in case of a handicap win. Pinnacle and 10Bet are even better and offer 2.02 and 2.01 for (-0.75) and you can also find 1.96 on Betfair for this option. Normal win looks best at Bwin – 1.75. You can find 1.75 on Betfair too and Expekt, Primebet and Stanleybet all offer 1.70 on a normal home win...)

FT 0:2

CONFERENCE SOUTH

Eastleigh – Bromley OVER 3.5 (3.25 @Betway) 6 units

Looking at their recent results, incredible value here. I was thinking about staking even more units here, but after the FA Trophy debacle (Marine concedes a goal in 95th minute and instead of being +2.2 units up we're -11.3 units down. Heartbreaking, I tell you), I'd like to keep mid-profile on this one.

I didn't just take a look at their recent results, I watched detailed, recent match highlights – both Eastleigh's and Bromley's. Both of these teams play attacking, open football with lots of chances, agressive counter-attacks and major defensive mistakes. Really, this bet will be lost only if both goalkeepers play their matches of the season, at the same time.

Since Baird took over, Eastleigh played only two UNDER 3.5 matches. 2:2, 2:3, 5:0, 3:0 (home win vs title candidates Lewes), 3:0 (away win at Weston), 3:3 (at home against Conference National high-flyers Forest Green), 1:4 (in the away replay), 4:2 (away win at Hayes). If they managed to score three goals at home against Lewes and Forest Green, then they surely can score at least three or four against Bromley too. After Baird took over, Forbes scored at least once in every match he played in. Ten goals in seven matches – very impressive.

Bromley played seven OVER 3.5 league matches in a row. They scored 16 and condeded 17 goals in those seven matches. 21st St Albans beat them 4:3 (and Bromley were playing at home) two weeks ago and 17th Welling (both relegation candidates) beat them 3:1 last Saturday. The last time we placed a bet on OVER 3.5 in Bromley's match, we had a winning bet after the first ten minutes – I wouldn't be surprised with the similar HT result this time too.

Bromley's fans are switching the blame for their recent results from centre-backs to the keeper and back to centre-backs. A solid team would try to play more careful, especially in the defense, but this is the non-league world and I saw the match highlights – I don't think Bromley could keep a clean sheet with those defenders they currently have against anybody, and this time they're playing against high-flying goal-machine outfit. Bromley will even play without their standard defender Corneille due to suspension – I like that bit very much. Eastleigh also have some injury worries, but their best scorer Forbes is fit.

Bad luck, please get out of the way.

(2.88 at Blue Square, only 2.42 at Stanleybet, but I advise everybody who can place a bet at Stanleybet to risk a single unit on a 7+ goals option too, just like I did. The odds are 20.8, which means you gain almost 20 units if seven goals are scored...)

FT 1:4

RYMAN DOUBLE: Wimbledon – Hornchurch 1 @1.65 & Chelmsford – Ashford 1 @1.40 (2.31 @Sportingbet) 4 units

Wimbledon are currently riding high – after trying out almost half a dozen strikers this season, now it seems they finally have the winning team capable for a promotion to the Conference South at the end of the season. Hornchurch dissappointed all the people who thought they could be serious play-off candidates this season and they're struggling lately, both with results and injuries. Chelmsford are almost always a great bet – especially when they're playing at home, against relegation candidates, after a shock-defeat at Wimbledon in the FA Trophy. Ryman Premier is the league I'm following more than the other 7th leagues and the league I have the best results in and it's really a shame that neither online bookies nor Stanleybet offer handicaps and OVERs/UNDERs for these leagues anymore – it would be a goldmine. But, we can do it like this too – Wimbledon + Chelmsford for 2.31? 4 units, any time. After all, Hornchurch and Ashford will both miss a couple of important players due to suspensions and injuries so I really think this bet should land nicely.

(2.16 at Bwin and Stanleybet, 2.15 at Skybet and Bet365...)

FT 1:0 / 4:0

CONFERENCE SOUTH

AD-HOC DRAW-NO-BET: Bognor Regis – Hayes & Yeading 1 (2.50 @Blue Square) 3 units & X (3.60 @StanJames) 1 unit

Bognor will undoubtebly look for three points here to get out of the dangerous zone. I think they have much more chance here than the bookies suggest. Bognor have a new manager, they are unbeaten in the last four league matches and their best striker Nightingale scored three goals in their last three league matches. Hayes are their direct rivals, also relegation candidates and if you took a look at their match highlights, you know that they're the perfect opportunity for Bognor Regis to get back on track.

I'm glad to see that Bognor guys also know a thing or two about their opponents. Hayes' scorer Palmer is labelled as 'danger-man' on the Bognor web-site and they're right. If they manage to keep an eye on him, this will be a winning bet. Eastleigh had a 4:0 lead at Hayes last Saturday and Palmer managed to score twice before the final whistle to make it 2:4 so yeah, he is the danger-man and requires a special treatment.

Bognor took a valuable point away at mighty Newport and then away at Dorchester, they managed to beat 14th Cambridge at home (2:0) and also took a point away at St Albans (who also have a new manager and want to get back on track – Bognor were unfortunate not scoring a winner) last Saturday. Hayes should be an easier opponent, because they're currently 16th, so still not in danger = less pressure on the players. And yes, Bognor are playing at home – that should make a difference too.

I wrote a lot about Hayes & Yeading so I won't do it again – they lost 2:4 at home to Eastleigh last Saturday (before that, struggling Maidenhead beat them in the FA Cup) and it became even more obvious that Palmer is half of their team, but even if he scores, I'm sure the defense will do their thing to throw away at least two points. A draw is possible here so I like this DRAW NO BET option most.

Last season, Bognor were great at home vs both Hayes and Yeading (5:1 and 3:1).

(1.70 at Betway for the official DRAW-NO-NET, but I like this improvised one much more... Bwin, Gamebookers, Paddy Power, Primebet and Sportingbet all offer 2.40 for a home win. Skybet and Bet365 also offer 3.60 for a draw. Stanleybet offers terrific 2.55 for a home win and, of course, Pinnacle is again the best option by far – they offer 1.96 for (0) or DRAW NO BET...)

FT 3:0

SOUTHERN PREMIER

AD-HOC DRAW NO BET: Chippenham – Hemel Hempstead 1 (2.38 @StanJames) 3 units & X (3.60 @StanJames) 1 unit

Chippenham are currently 5th and Hemel are 1st in the Southern Premier but Hemel played two matches more than Chippenham and they have only three points more. Hemel Hempstead will be without three important players due to their suspensions (midfielder Cracknell, Dennison and standard defender Bowden-Hasse) and that alone is a good enough reason for taking this bet at these odds. But, there are other reasons too.

Chippenham are yet to lose a home match (3-2-0). They took another three points this Tuesday, away at play-off candidates Rugby (currently 7th) and before that they won comfortably at home vs 13th Tiverton (5:1), won four Cup matches and lost only to Ryman play-off candidates Horsham in the FA Cup 4th qualifying round – that's their only home defeat this season and that wasn't even the league which is a priority for Chippenham this season. In the FA Trophy, they managed to beat both Merthyr (3:0) and Heybridge (3:2). Chippenham's first-choice goalkeeper is out with a hip injury, but they managed to sign Bittner from Salisbury (Conference National) on a month loan and he did great at Rugby and managed to keep a clean sheet. That's not easy in these leagues.

Hemel Hempstead are playing great away from home (5-2-1) but they will without a doubt be more than satisfied with a draw here. They have two league defeats in a row (at home to 9th Clevedon and away at 3rd Team Bath) and I don't think they'll be top of the table for much longer. Both King's Lynn and Team Bath have stronger squads and the biggest chances for the title this season. After the Clevedon defeat, they did manage to pull off a revenge (2:1), at home in the less important FA Trophy, but before those two defeats Hemel weren't very comfortable away from home. They did manage to win at surprisingly 4th Brackley but only shared points at 8th Bedford and 20th Gloucester.

Last year, both matches ended with a draw – it was 2:2 at Chippenham and 0:0 at Hemel. This time, Hemel are out of form (and Chippenham are the in-form team, playing at home) and without a couple of important players. Small loss (-0.40) in case of a draw here...

(2.25 at Bet365, Skybet and Stanleybet for a home win, 3.60 for a draw also at Skybet...)

FT 1:2

CONFERENCE NORTH

Hucknall – Solihull Moors 1 (2.25 @StanJames) 2 units

Two strugglers and relegation candidates here. Hucknall are currently 22nd, bottom of the table and Solihull Moors are 17th (three points more), but recent results are showing it all. Hucknall brought in a couple of new players (new no1 goalkeeper Reid, midfielder Manship, defenderd Macpherson and Sucharewycz, winger Graves, and strikers Howells and Ricketts came before them, last month) and they have two wins in a row. They beat Worcester 5:0 at home and Stalybridge 3:0 away. Impressive, and the new keeper is at his best – two clean sheets in a row look great knowing that they only managed to keep clean sheet once before that...

Solihull managed to share points at home vs Workington, but it's going to be much tougher this time. They're away from home and they'll be without Ayres due to suspension. Before Workington, they lost two home matches – to Alfreton (0:3) and Boston (1:3). Away from home, they have one win (back in August, away at another strugglers from Hinckley), two draws (at currently very poor Worcester in September and at another fellow strugglers Leigh RMI in October) and three defeats – they scored only four goals in those six matches. Very nice odds lured me but it's just a little two units bet...

(2.30 at Stanleybet, 2.25 also at Sportingbet, 2.20 at Bet-at-home, Blue Square, Gamebookers and PartyBets...)

FT 2:2

CONF NORTH DOUBLE: Alfreton – Leigh RMI 1 @1.65 & Boston – Vauxhall 1 @1.70 (2.805 @Betway) 2 units

In-form play-off candidates at home, struggling out-of-form outfits away. Alfreton brought in a couple of great players recently, they have three wins in a row (two of them away from home) and shouldn't have much problem against Leigh RMI who lost a couple of important players lately and picked up a sole point out of their last three matches. It was 1:0 for Alfreton last season and I expect a similar result this time. Alfreton manager has a full squad to chose from – Glass is back from suspension and everyone is fit. They even managed to beat league leaders Harrogate away from home last Saturday. Leigh RMI have one draw (at Vauxhall) and four defeats in their last five away league matches.

Boston are yet to lose a home match this season, they picked up five points in their last three matches, but it was all away matches. After an FA Cup defeat, I'm sure they want to get back on track. Vauxhall only managed to share points in the last round at home vs struggling Worcester and before that they lost to Telford, also at home. They will also be without two suspended players – Garrity and Heler. A nice little bet...

(2.78 at StanJames and Stanleybet, 2.72 at Bet-at-home, Bwin, Gamebookers, PartyBets, Primebet, Sportingbet...)

FT 1:0 / 5:1

- 18:17 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

06.11.2007., utorak

6.11.2007. -13 units

FA TROPHY

AD-HOC DRAW-NO-BET: Billericay – King's Lynn 1 (2.63 @Skybet) 6 units & X (3.60 @StanJames) 2 units

Couldn't believe my eyes when I saw these odds. I expected something completely different, something like 2.20 for Billericay and 2.63 for King's Lynn but we got exactly the opposite – that's what I call a value bet. Both of these teams are promotion candidates in their leagues (Billericay in Ryman Premier, King's Lynn in Southern Premier) and the home advantage could very easily prove to be crucial in this match. Billericay are indeed currently 15th in the Ryman Premier – that's probably the only 'reason' for these odds – but they have just four points less than 8th Folkestone and Folkestone played three matches more!

Billericay even had a lead at King's Lynn untill the very last moment – King's Lynn equalised, but Billericay, I still can't believe these odds, surely have at least equal chances for a win here, in front of their own supporters. Yes, Billericay have a big game this upcoming Saturday, it's Swansea at home in the FA Cup 1st round proper, but it was back in everyone's minds at King's Lynn too and Billericay almost won. Billericay are traditionally strong at home, they have three home wins in a row and they have a great scorer in Joe Flack who scored five goals in their last four matches (and it seems he likes Cup matches more – he scored 8 goals in 4 FA Cup matches and 3 goals in 2 FA Trophy matches, and another 8 goals in 11 league matches).

King's Lynn, of course, also have a chance here, they're doing great in Southern Premier (they're currently 3rd), but in their last three away matches, they have two defeats and one draw so they're really nothing to be afraid of. It seems like they're mostly concentrating on their league fixtures this season – they lost at Tamworth in the FA Cup and barely made it to the FA Cup 2nd qualifying round after a draw at Sudbury (never heard) and a narrow 2:1 home win in the replay at home. Billericay defenders must keep an eye on Bloomfield (just like King's Lynn will probably try to stop Flack) who scored three goals in King's Lynn's last three matches and is their best scorer this season. I hope they know it too, because if they do – we're even closer to another winning bet...

This is what one of the Billericay supporters wrote after the Saturday's match:

''..I thought it was a strong performance from us today, arguably our best of the season so far and that we were desperately unlucky not to come away with a win from a game that for the vast majority of were far superior in. It's often interesting to read the comparisons between the Southern and Ryman leagues, but on yesterday's evidence our league is far stronger...''

And these are the latest news from King's Lynn:

''... Keith Webb appears to have a selection headache ahead of Tuesday's trip to Billericay for the FA Trophy replay. Craig Fleming will not be available due to an ankle problem. Both John Turner and Joe Francis are major doubts and skipper Mark Warren will need a late fitness test on a calf problem. However Danny Bloomfield is OK after being substituted on Saturday. Webb is expecting to take a couple of players from the reserves to bolster his options...''

Huge value, so a nice bunch of units staked here. If Billericay wins, we gain +7.78 units and in case of a draw, we lose less than a unit. Fair enough...

(Bet365 and Tipico both offer 2.60 and Bwin, Digibet and Bet-at-home all offer 2.55 for a home win. You can find a draw for 3.50 anywhere. Pinnacle's 1.88 for Billericay (+0.25), which means a nice profit with a draw already, sounds absolutely great...)

FT 1:3

FA TROPHY DOUBLE: Marine – Bamber Bridge 1 @1.65 & Maidstone – Abingdon 1 @1.65 (2.7225 @Bwin) 5 units

Terrific value in this double. Marine should win their FA Trophy replay comfortably, they're playing great recently and after a couple of away matches, I'm sure they'll be up for this home cup fixture. Bamber Bridge are currently 5th in the Unibond North league (one league below Unibond Premier), but they're not the in-form team right now. Just look at Bamber Bridge's results in last two weeks – 0:2 defeat at home to Harrogate Railway in the league, 1:4 away defeat at Histon in the FA Cup 4th qualifying round, 0:5 away defeat at FC United of Manchester (not Manchester United) in the President's Cup and, finally, 1:1 at home vs Marine in the FA Trophy 2nd qualifying round. The Mariners have four home wins in a row, they're doing great in the Unibond Premier (wouldn't be surprised to see them in the Conference North next season) and really shouldn't have much problem here.

Maidstone will miss two players for this match due to their suspensions but that shouldn't matter much – they're playing great at home and had a similar task in the 1st qualifying round of this competition. They played away at Bury, managed to push it to a replay at home and then won comfortably, 3:1. Abingdon are 10th in the Southern S&W league (one league below Ryman or Southern Premier), but they played two matches more than 9th Gosport, and away from home, they have three wins, two draws and three defeats. In their last two league matches played away from home, they only managed to share points at 16th Taunton and 14th Thatcham. Maidstone have 6 wins out of their last 7 home matches. They've lost just twice and shared points only once in their 11 home matches this season, including a friendly against a strong Dagenham & Redbridge outfit. Apparently, Abingdon players celebrated their second goal in unsportsmanlike manner this Saturday (after that, Maidstone scored twice and the match ended 2:2) and their supporters had some kind of a spitting competition, so I'm sure Maidstone players will be up for it. The FA Trophy 3rd qualifying round brings literally hundreds of pounds to all the winners of the 2nd qualifying round so – no fooling around, guys, okay?

(Digibet offers the same odds, 2.70 at Skybet...)

FT 2:2 / 5:3

- 23:56 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

04.11.2007., nedjelja

4.11.2007. -6 units

CONFERENCE NORTH

Nuneaton – Hyde AD-HOC DRAW-NO-BET: 2 (2.40 @Expekt) 4 units & X (3.60 @StanJames) 2 units

Hyde had an October from a fairytale. They won all four league matches, three of that away from home. Just look at the results – 2:0 away win at Kettering who were league leaders at the time, 3:0 away win at 11th Alfreton, 2:1 at home vs 19th Barrow (they did what good outfits always do and that's winning even if you're not playing good and have a player sent off) and, finally, 5:1 away at 20th Leigh RMI a couple of days ago.

Hyde also have Gareth Seddon who is very hard to stop upfront and Tipton started to score goals regularly too. Seddon scored four and Tipton scored three goals in their October league matches. And their best scorer this season is neither one of them but Simm who had to be content with the place on the bench lately. They also signed super-experienced defender Morley who left the League 2 club Macclesfield to join Hyde a couple of days ago.

Not that it's very important, but it was 3:2 for the hosts at Hyde and 0:0 at Nuneaton last season.

Nuneaton aren't the most confident home team. They have two wins, three draws and two defeats (goal-difference 11:11). Their last two home matches were both draws, they shared points with Kettering (just when they were in the biggest crisis) and Boston United (who aren't good away from home), but I think Hyde will prove to be a much tougher opponent.

After all, Nuneaton just played the most dissapointing match all season – they lost in the FA Cup 4th qualifying round (and failed to get through to the 1st round proper which brings extra money from the FA too) – it was 1:2 away at Chasetown from two leagues below.

Here's what Ted Stocker, Nuneaton's major shareholder, has to say: ''...We've missed out on a place in the First Round Proper and that's cost us Ł40,000 so I'm not happy...'. Watch out, manager Wilkin, rumour is you're getting sacked. What do you have to say in your defense? '...We didn't start playing until we went two goals down and that's not good enough. We defended dreadfully for both their goals - they were the only two efforts they had on target, but we lose concentration so easily and that's a concern...''. Surely is, but it could've also been 0:3 at one moment, when Chasetown players hit the post.

(Betway offers 1.70 for DRAW NO BET, but once again I like this improvised one better... A draw brings us nice profit too... Betway, Primebet and TopSportWetten also offer 2.40 for away win and Skybet also offers 3.60 for a draw. Stanleybet offers 2.20 for away win and Pinnacle offers 1.85 for DRAW NO BET or (pk))

FT 1:0

- 18:03 - Komentari (0) - Isprintaj - #

03.11.2007., subota

3.11.2007. +7.6498 units

CONFERENCE SOUTH

Havant & Waterloovile – Hampton & Richmond 1 (2.20 @StanJames) 6 units

Havant and Hampton both managed to get all the way through the FA Cup 1st round proper last Saturday – they both had a relatively easy task, Havant won 3:0 at home vs Leighton and Hampton managed to beat their Ryman opponents Wealdstone 1:0, at home too. Havant are currently 11th and Hampton are 6h, but things are bound to change soon. I predict Havant will be in the play-off zone and Hampton mid-table by the end of the calendar year.

Havant are not in the best form – I thought their last home match was going to mark the end of the bad run, didn't happen, they conceded an injury-time goal and lost two valuable points. But, looking at their opponents from now untill mid December, it seems Havant are finally going to nail a couple of wins in a row. Hampton, Fisher, Sutton, Thurrock and St Albans are outfits that Havant should comfortably beat – especially home matches (Hampton, Fisher, St Albans). They're traditionally very strong at home and this season they had only a couple of counter-examples. They lost to Lewes who were league leaders then and shared points with Braintree in the 1st round and with Basingstoke two weeks ago (experienced Oatway was rested in that match and they conceded a foolish late equaliser after missing a couple of great chances). 3:0 FA Cup win last Saturday probably filled them up with some confidence and I'm sure they will take this match very seriously. Havant will miss Slabber due to suspension, but Baptiste and Pacquette are Gale's first choice strikers anyhow and another striker Watkins has just signed from league rivals Sutton. Pacquette scored five goals in October and Rocky Baptiste added two of his goals. Gurney and Poate are finally fit too. Havant also have a great goalkeeper in Kevin Scriven – he conceded only three goals in five October matches and were voted Player of the month for two months in a row (August and September). Winger Potter came to Havant on a 3-month loan from Peterborough today.

Hampton did beat Wealdstone 1:0 in the FA Cup 4th qualifying round last Saturday but it wasn't that easy. Wealdstone were a better team in the 1st half and it took a couple of substitutions for Hampton to score a late winner. Hampton lost only three league matches so far but they had a pretty nice schedule. Away from home, they played vs 20th Bognor Regis (won 4:2), 4th Bath City (lost 0:2), 13th Hayes & Yeading (0:0), 15th Thurrock (won 5:0), 5th Bishop's Stortford (lost 2:6) and 10th Basingstoke (won 2:1). All the teams they managed to beat are in fact, forget about the current position on the league table, relegation candidates and handicap defeats to play-off candidates showed the true away strength of Hampton & Richmond. They're good enough for strugglers, but not so much for the teams that would like to play Conference National football next season.

(Of course, Pinnacle odds for Havant (-0.25), which means we get half a stake back in case of a draw, are absolutely fantastic – 1.83 at this moment. Betway offers 1.55 for DRAW NO BET, could be a lot better. Sportingbet and Blue Square also offer 2.20 for home win, Stanleybet offers 2.10...)

FT 0:3

Hayes & Yeading – Eastleigh AD-HOC DRAW-NO-BET: 2 (2.50 @Blue Square) 6 units & X (3.60 @StanJames) 2 units

Hayes & Yeading missed a great chance for playing in the FA Cup 1st round proper. They were playing away at struggling rivals Maidenhead – they lost only 0:1 but they played awful (Maidenhead looked like a team from league above) and only if they play the match of the season already, they could snatch a victory here, against high-flying Eastleigh. I wrote about Eastleigh a lot lately – they have a new manager, a couple of new players, they shocked Lewes 3:0 and kicked them off the top of the league table and then brought us some units away at Weston-super-Mare (3:0 again). They even scored three goals at home vs Conference National play-off candidates Forest Green (half a unit won there too), but lost in the replay away from home 1:4 (two of their players got sent off but, nevertheless, they had a great first half, took the lead and made quite an impression). Without the tough FA Cup fixtures, Eastleigh's recent goal-difference is 11:0 in three matches.

Newly merged Hayes & Yeading have a couple of nice results after a terrible start of the season, but their results aren't that spectacular if we look at their opponents – 10th Basingstoke (home, 1:1), 17th Welling (away, 2:1 win), 22nd Sutton (away, 2:1 win), 1st Eastbourne (the only shock result is their 1:1 home draw with current league leaders), 14th Braintree (away, 1:0 win), 15th Thurrock (home, 1:1) and 12th Fisher (home, 2:1 win). Now they're again playing at home, but this time against a team that seems unstopable at this moment and the draw is IMO the worst that can happen to Baird's Eastleigh outfit here and that's only if Hayes players get really lucky.

Hayes & Yeading will be without their standard winger Liam Collins due to suspension and left-back Peter Collins is out injured. The other left-back Nuako just left Hayes and joined league rivals Fisher.

You can watch the match highlights from the Maidenhead – Hayes match yourself:

http://www.yeadingfc.no/video/Maidenhead_v_H&Y.wmv

You'll see that Hayes & Yeading aren't a very good team. If you think that they're much better at home – well, they're not really. They were very lucky to take four points out of their last two league matches – Thurrock could've beat them with a handicap if they only had a bit more luck and Fisher were a better team for the biggest part of the match. The most important thing Eastleigh defenders must do is to keep an eye on Hayes' forward Palmer who scored an equaliser against Thurrock and a winner against Fisher, both times with a scissor-kick. If they manage to neutralise Palmer, this has to be a winning bet. Maybe I should write an e-mail to Eastleigh's manager...

(Betway offers 1.65 for DRAW NO BET, but I like this improvised one better. We win 7 units if Eastleigh win and lose less than a unit in case of a draw... Sportingbet, Primebet, Digibet and TopSportWetten offer 2.40 for away win and Skybet and Bet365 both offer 3.60 for a draw. Stanleybet offers fanstastic 2.60 for away win...)

FT 2:4

CONF SOUTH DOUBLE: Newport – Dorchester 1 @1.60 & Lewes – Sutton 1 @1.40 (2.24 @Sportingbet) 3 units

Dorchester are really struggling, they lost four of their last away matches and their discipline started to run lose also. Newport lost two times to Bath City, but their manager knows Newport inside-out. They quickly bounced back with a 3:1 away win at Fisher and after a goal-shy start of the season, they're finally started scoring. Hughes scored three times and both Griffin and Evans scored twice in October.

After an away defeat at Eastleigh and a home draw vs Maidenhead, Lewes pulled off a big surprise in the FA Cup, beating Conference National outfit Grays 2:0 (before that, they played with Sutton in the FA Cup and won 1:0). Sutton finally have a new manager, but he's going to look for his first points elsewhere. Lewes are just too strong for them now. Sutton have seven league defeats in a row and they scored only once in their last three league matches, away at Thurrock.

(2.15 at Bet365, 2.14 at Betway, only 1.88 at Stanleybet ...)

FT 3:2 / 4:0

CONF NORTH/FA TROPHY DOUBLE: Kettering – Blyth 1 @1.57 & Stocksbridge – Witton 2 @1.57 (2.4649 @Skybet) 2 units

Kettering doing fine after the mini-crisis, they're currently 3rd but are still one of the biggest title candidates. They're great at home (6-0-1, the only defeat happened vs high-flying Hyde – Kettering defenders didn't manage to stop Seddon who scored a brace). Blyth aren't very good away from home (2-2-2, goal-difference 5:7) and only if they're very lucky, they could end up with a point here. Witton's defence should be too solid for Stocksbridge – Witton conceded only seven goals in the league so far (15 matches) and scored 36. Stocksbridge are one of the worse home teams in the league below Unibond Premier.

(2.43 at Bet365, 2.32 at Bwin...)

FT 1:0 / 2:5